The Question, Wednesday 9/11/13: Will The X Factor Get X-tinguished?

Tonight The X Factor becomes the first of the major broadcast entertainment franchises to come back for the fall. But coming off a sophomore season of 20%+ declines, another brutal season for its singing teammate American Idol, and after yet another judging overhaul, it's debatable just how "major" this one will be. Will The X Factor get X-tinguished? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 11, 2013.

The X Factor Last Season

3.4 (premiere, 9/12/12, -23% y2y) 2.92 (Wed avg, -23% y2y) 2.79 (Thu avg, -21% y2y) 2.7 (Wed finale, 12/19/12, -18% y2y) 3.1 (Thu finale, 12/20/12, -18% y2y)

I said in the Best Case/Worst Case posts that this show would replicate the 23% drop of last season, and I think it'll be down by about that amount across pretty much the whole season. Dropping 23% from last year's 3.4 premiere takes us to right around 2.6. And just an hour of runtime (with the MasterChef finale leading out) could hurt a teeny bit. But I'll give the premiere a tiny benefit of the doubt because it doesn't have to face The Voice, which NBC infamously threw at it for the premiere last season.

Over/Under: 2.65.

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