| Breaking Bad This Season |
| 2.87 (premiere, 8/11/13, +89% y2y) 2.41 (8/18/13) 2.54 (8/25/13) 2.18 (Labor Day weekend, 9/1/13) 2.58 (9/8/13) 3.19 (9/15/13) 3.37 (9/22/13) |
The crazy thing about trying to predict this show is that all this growth has come even though there's no huge reserve of old fans expected to come back for the end, as there certainly was in The Sopranos' spike from mid-3's all the way up to 5.4 in 2007. Usually that's what causes massive finale jumps. Here, all of the Nielsen momentum has come from the scores and scores of new fans. But there sure are a lot of 'em. My guess: a ton of Breaking Bad DVRers will be watching this finale within the Live+SD window, and all the new broadcast competition (plus Showtime's Homeland premiere) practically doesn't matter here.
Over/Under: 4.45.
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19 comments:
Oh I am disappointed that the question is not about ABC Sundays. I think I am the only people on the planet that could not like Breaking Bad. Under
It's just not for me, but I'm a fan of Odenkirk, so I will watch the Saul spin-off. Under
I drastically underestimated the season premiere, so over. If I'm wrong, at least I won't have made the same mistake twice.
4 is possible, but I cant see it hitting 4.5. Under
Over. A huge number of my friends who normally let a season finish before starting it have been catching up in order to watch the finale on the day. I'm hoping this isn't an isolated example and this turns into a real mega-event.
One of my roommates has never been able to get into it either, so you're far from alone.
Making a pure instinct call here. There's enough new aud out there. Over.
I think it'll be more like 4.1 ish. UNDER
Under. I don't see more than a one point spike.
Under at a 4.1
Under. Around four is the ceiling, I think.
It's tough for me to bet against cable dominance, but I think you're a little too high.
Under at 4.2
Under. I'm going with 4 even.
Under
Under
Going north of 4.0 is doable given the show's trajectory this season and the zeitgeist-y past seven days (starting with the Emmy win last Sunday and going through last night's Breaking-laden SNL references). It's that last half-point that I question; cleave that to a 4.25 and I think the commentariat would have been more split even if the O/U is closer to being correct.
Under.
Under at a 3.96. I just can't see it jumping over a point tonight.
Given that AMC report their A18-49 number to 2dp, there's a shot at a tie here! That'd be hilarious.
It's a good line, too - I can't see it not having a 4-handle. The thing for me is that all the buzz I was getting before the show was of people being *really* worried about spoilers, and that could even trump the DVR-proof SNF competition. Those marathon numbers are a good sign that there are new fans who are going to be in for the finale. Can it spike a point? Can you really bet against the spikes of this show?
I can't. Over.
I actually look at it the other way; looking at the predix, the split would've been about the same at 4.25. If it actually does the 4.5-4.6 I predicted, it'll be moot, but I'd sure like to have those extra couple tenths on "my" side.
My goal was a number that would make it hard to go over, and I certainly succeeded, but it seems the conventional wisdom was more in the 4.0 range. I expected that at 4.25 there would be a lot of people right up against that number and taking a flyer on over. Sigh.
It scored a 5.3, apparently. Simply huge. =O
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