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Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Monday 9/23/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • In the last couple seasons, premiere Monday has done quite a solid job setting the tone for the season to come. This season, much of that 2012 tone (that is, NBC good/CBS bad) remains the same. The Voice remained the shining exception in an otherwise struggling talent show space with another sensational return, beating both of its 2013-14 premiere numbers (including 21% ahead of the pre-premiere week fall 2012 bow). And it launched NBC's next great drama hope The Blacklist pretty close to last year's Revolution numbers. Revolution launched last year in the pre-premiere week (and launched very well), so this is a great start.
  • The other big story of premiere Monday 2012 was the CBS softness, and it got even worse in 2013. Though How I Met Your Mother looked good, up a tenth year-to-year, it was pretty much an isolated incident; 2 Broke Girls (2.8) took a big dive at 9:00, Mom (2.5) lost a little more at 9:30 and Hostages (1.8) was basically dead on arrival at 10:00. There's a lot of schedule yet to premiere, but right now it looks like it will probably need a better-than-usual post-premiere hold just to make it through its 15 episodes on Monday.
  • The biggest change from Day One 2012? It looks like Fox's new drama is legit. Sleepy Hollow (3.1) lost just 11% week-to-week despite increased competition on NBC/CBS and remained well over double last year's occupant The Mob Doctor (1.3 on 9/24/12).
  • As in the spring, Dancing with the Stars' resurgence lasted only as long as The Voice's absence. In week two, it shed a quarter of its 3.1 demo audience from last week's premiere. But that was somewhat inevitable, and once you get past the week-to-week trend it may still be a positive when the dust settles. Last year's second week had just a 2.1. The network also upticked year-to-year at 10/9c with the premiere of Castle.
  • All of this adds up to the Big Four going +10% vs. premiere Monday 2012. ABC -5%, CBS -1%, NBC +15%, Fox +37%. There are some caveats that inflate this somewhat; NBC had a series premiere at 10 rather than a week two, CBS had a second How I Met Your Mother this year, etc. But overall, it's definitely a step up in tone from last year.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars Mon 2.3 22% -0.8-26%n/a 2/2 -8% -26% -9% 2.3
Castle 2.2 24% n/an/an/a 1/1 +5% +69% +5% 2.2
ABC:-9%-5%
How I Met Your Mother 3.7 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 +3% +155% +23% 3.4
2 Broke Girls 2.8 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 -24% +87% -24% 2.8
Mom 2.5 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +39% -19% 2.4
Hostages 1.8 31% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -36% -3% 1.9
CBS:+38%-1%
The Voice Mon 5.1 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 +21% +308% +17% 4.8
The Blacklist 3.8 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +533% +10% 3.4
NBC:+352%+15%
Bones 1.9 36% -0.4-17%n/a 2/2 -17% -17% -19% 1.8
Sleepy Hollow 3.1 46% -0.4-11%-40% 2/2 n/a -11% +138% 3.3
Fox:-14%+37%
Hart of Dixie (R) 0.2 48% +0% -20% 0.2
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.2 40% +0% +0% 0.2
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 48% +50% +50% 0.3
CW:+13%+0%
Big5:+44%+10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

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