First Two Weeks, Sleepy Hollow

WEEK ONE
Fox got a sensational start out of new drama Sleepy Hollow, which averaged a 3.5 adults 18-49 rating. That was about 50% higher than its Bones lead-in (2.3) and an easy #1 against the pre-premiere week broadcast competition. It outrated the many low-3's dramas Fox has premiered on Monday over the last few years, from Terra Nova (3.1) to Alcatraz (3.3) to The Following (3.2), all the more impressive since this is the last of those shows chronologically.

WEEK TWO
Though Sleepy Hollow already faced some of its usual competition on premiere night (namely Monday Night Football and Dancing with the Stars), there was still some concern about the arrival of the NBC (The Voice) and CBS (2 Broke Girls/Mom) lineups. But Sleepy Hollow resoundingly passed the second test as well, dropping a better-than-average 11% to a still stellar 3.1. Given its Bones lead-in took an even larger percentage drop (-17% to 1.9), Sleepy Hollow looks legit.

PROGNOSIS
The real question with Sleepy Hollow seems to be whether this is a show that can be extended beyond 13 episodes this season, or if it's just designed to run its 13 and then hand off the slot to The Following. Fox would want more if they can get 'em, but we don't know. Either way, there's no reason whatsoever to feel down on this show through two weeks. There's a good chance it's not done dropping yet, but it's hard to see it dropping all the way to unacceptability within season one, however long it is. Renew.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.