| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Wednesday 9:00 | 11.2 | 4 | -7% | 4 | 34.8 | 6 | 32% | 3 |
Wednesday 9:00 was actually the most broadcast-viewed timeslot of the week on a night not named Sunday, as it was a very rare spot where all five networks were at least respectable. Its average was down just 7% year-to-year, making it the fourth-healthiest on TV even as Modern Family, Criminal Minds and Fox's singing shows all had underwhelming seasons. The story came on the other two networks, where even the modest numbers from NBC's Law and Order: SVU provided a huge improvement on miserable 2011-12 occupants like Harry's Law and Rock Center. And a resurgent season from Supernatural helped to round out a great Wednesday night on the CW.
The Shows:
 | Modern Family | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 3.47 | |||
| Best Case: The 8:30 lead-in is stronger. The competition, especially from Fox, is weaker. There's another truckload of Emmys. And most importantly, scores and scores of reruns on USA and in local syndication create even more exposure. An improbable +10% to a 4.65. Worst Case: Everybody knows about this show already, so syndication and another redundant round of awards won't make a lick of difference. And it's gonna disappoint in syndication anyway. This show is on the downswing, and it struggles to even find 4.0 again. Down by 20% to 3.37. Likeliest: As I said last week, I expect syndication to help The Middle more than Modern Family, because that show is both lower-profile and better suited for reruns. But it'll still help Modern Family somewhat, sort of to the same degree as I believe it helped Castle last season. Significantly slows the bleed with a 5% drop to 4.00 and holds onto the "megahit" label for at least one more year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 4.20 | ||||
| 4.23 | Occupants | |||
| Modern Family | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -16% | megahit | 4.20 | 4.25 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 4.24 | -0% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 4.80 | -12% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | Super Fun Night (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 2.19 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres October 2 | 2.34 | |||
| Best Case: While it may not seem like a "fit," keep in mind that Modern Family skews much younger than most family comedies. And this show's bigger and dumber humor taps into the broad Modern Family audience better than previous hangout comedies. Oh, and Rebel Wilson is a star worth building a series around! 2.88. Worst Case: So it's the same kind of show as Happy Endings and Apartment 23, shows that had less than 60% retention, except it's much worse than those shows? What could possibly go wrong? A horrifying 1.50 that gets it pulled by November. Likeliest: This might have a shot if most reports didn't peg it as such a mess. But bad show and bad fit is not the kind of thing I bet on. I could see it hanging in there well enough to get a back nine, just so ABC has something to pair with midseasoner Mixology in some other slot. But I'm guessing it's gone from the 9:30 slot by midseason. ABC has other options. I'll say it averages a 2.12 and ends after 13. | Occupants | |||
| Suburgatory | ||||
| 2.23 | 1.75 | |||
| How to Live | ||||
| 2.14 | 1.88 | |||
 | Criminal Minds | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 2.48 | |||
| Best Case: Last year snapped a streak of four straight seasons going somewhere between -0% and -4%. Now it's found a new level and gets right back on that track. -3% to a 2.78. Worst Case: Last season was bad news. It's been quite a run for Criminal Minds, but this show's officially fading. Down 17% to a 2.38, and CBS considers a new Wednesday 9/8c anchor before giving the nod to Minds for one last year. Likeliest: This will be another of those shows to normalize somewhat after a strange result last year, but I do believe we're past the days of this show posting the same raw numbers year after year. Takes a league average drop to 2.63. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.86 | ||||
| 2.87 | Occupants | |||
| Criminal Minds | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -15% | hit | 2.87 | 2.78 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.78 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.22 | -11% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | Law and Order: SVU | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 1.68 | |||
| Best Case: SVU has a better lead-in from Revolution, and a procedural can benefit from the network's attempt to broaden its base audience as a whole. Drops just 6% to a still very renew-worthy 1.63. Worst Case: With Chicago Fire and its decent momentum no longer on the night, NBC Wednesday descends back into total uncompetitiveness, and SVU isn't strong enough to stop it. Drops 23% to a 1.33 and, though they could probably justify bringing it back, it ends five seasons shy of the mothership. Likeliest: I do believe Chicago Fire was somewhat beneficial to this show, so after exceeding my expectations last year, SVU will be another of those "make-up" shows like the above. Give it -15% to a 1.47, but by season's end it'll still be the clear strongest show of NBC's Wednesday, so it barely ekes out one more year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.76 | ||||
| 1.73 | Occupants | |||
| Law and Order: SVU | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -10% | marginal | 1.73 | 1.88 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.88 | -8% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.62 | +6% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | The X Factor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 11 | 3.32 | |||
| Best Case: Fox drops the "embrace the trainwreck" approach that didn't work last year, and X is able to reclaim some legitimacy with a stronger judging panel. It drops just 5% to a 2.77, and is actually up year-to-year by season's end. Worst Case: We thought Britney Spears didn't help The X Factor last year, but she actually did help; the show would've totally melted down without her. Said meltdown comes this year. Down over a third to a 1.90, and though those are still "acceptable" ratings, Fox doesn't like the cost, the trajectory, and the damage to Idol, so they decide to end this and try to shore up Idol. Likeliest: It's just when I write these kinds of shows off that they always seem to surge back. The loss of Britney may improve the product. That said, with Idol coming off another bad season, I don't see a compelling reason to say the ship will get righted. Replicates last year's -23% to a very mediocre 2.25 and has to sweat out a renewal decision. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.50 | ||||
| 2.92 | Occupants | |||
| The X Factor | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -23% | hit | 2.97 | 2.90 | |
| True | Sitch | American Idol | ||
| 2.83 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 3.92 | 3.89 | |
| 3.43 | -15% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | The Tomorrow People (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 0.74 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres October 9 | 0.92 | |||
| Best Case: Know what's cooler than one superhero? A bunch of superheroes! Builds by a tick from Arrow at a 1.07 and actually holds off The Vampire Diaries to become the top show on the network in 18-49 (though not in the younger demos). Worst Case: It's the same kind of show as Arrow, except not as good and a lot harder to sell. The Arrow audience comes to see it as a very cheap imitator, and it's axed after one season at a 0.48. Likeliest: This feels to me like a show that will do a predictably solid job after Arrow. Nothing more, nothing less. (Though me saying that probably means it will bomb big-time.) But the good news is that the CW really needs a lot more of that kind of show. I'll give it an upper-70s percent of the Arrow demo at a 0.75, and it's an easy renewal. | Occupants | |||
| Supernatural | ||||
| 0.92 | 0.96 | |||
The Network to Watch: I'm going to take ABC in a close one over CW just because, again, I see The Tomorrow People doing fairly predictably decent business. What ends up happening with Super Fun Night's slot at midseason seems tougher to gauge.
The Picks: Modern Family. Maybe Modern Family's lead-out, whatever that may be at the time. And I'll definitely try The Tomorrow People.
14 comments:
Is it too bold to call Super Fun Night as the first show cancelled? Everything about this show says "cancel me immediately," but it seems like ABC really has big hopes for it.
It's just strange how it seems that *any other new ABC comedy* would have been more appropriately scheduled behind Modern Family.
Super Fun Night and Dads seem pretty similar to me, as in, they're the networks big sitcom hope, but they both had terrible pilots, the critics hated them, and the networks are just hoping that they turn out good in the end. Sure, SFN is behind Modern Family, but that hasn't worked out for 5 out of 6 sitcoms that aired regularly behind it (the jury's still out on Suburgatory).
I can't see it ending well for either of them. Fox is basically forced to stick with Dads until at least midseason, but I can see Back In The Game or Suburgatory knocking SFN out of it's slot real quick. Shame, because as an Aussie I'd like to see Rebel Wilson do well, but I don't think she's quite big enough to build a whole show around.
This is a quibble over fractions of a ratings point, but I'm not a fan of the tentpole sitcoms premiering with 2 episodes and introducing the :30 sitcom the next week. Getting the new show out of the way of the "crush of premiere week" sounds ridiculous for two reasons. If the network is that worried about if the show's going to hold up against competition, then why was it greenlit to series? And that premiere week crush also provides the anchor sitcoms with higher than average ratings that can be funneled into the new show. Waiting until week 2, after shows typically drop, to air the new show feels like a handicap. Instead of burning off one of those extra episodes MF, TBBT, and HIMYM get from their larger-than-average orders, save them for sweeps or a stop-gap solution to reruns when the new series is canceled.
< /end quibble>
This is one of the rare hours when I have a broadcast logjam. I'm picking Modern Family & Super Fun Night since I try to give new shows a few episodes after a pilot to shape up. The Tomorrow People is the non-spinoff new CW show I'm highest on this year from all their choices. SVU is likely to enter my mix if Tomorrow People disappoints or when it's in reruns.
ABC has got a lot of criticism for their scheduling of SNF but I can see their logic. They see it as a priority so they want a timeslot that reflects that, they want to avoid New Girl on Fox which has an overlapping audience, and Modern Family skews young and female while SHIELD will skew more male. They probably also know it's a poor pilot so they want to give it some cover while it finds its feet.
The real problem is Trophy Wife at 9:30 Tuesday. I wonder whether ABC should have just put a half-hour DWTS results show there and saved Trophy Wife for Wednesday at midseason. But then they also have Suburgatory.
That said, there's some questionable logic in picking up a pilot based on the marketability of a star and then putting it in a protected timeslot. Then again, I'm somewhat sceptical about how much of a draw Rebel Wilson really is... which leaves you wondering why they picked up the show at all if the pilot is as terrible as people say. But then ABC has picked up a few questionable pilots in the recent past, plus it's a knock-off of the red hot Big Bang.
I agree with you on The Tomorrow People. It's not a slam dunk like Arrow but it should be a much-needed incremental improvement for The CW. Building around what they have is a vital part of strengthening the network, even if it won't turn the network's fortunes around.
I have to think We Are Men is going to be canceled first. CBS has a lot of comedy options as backup (Mike & Molly, Friends with Better Lives, Bad Teacher) while ABC really only has Mixology; after last season's disappointing run at 9:30 I think the Alphabet won't put Suburgatory back there.
I'm watching Tomorrow People. Not big into superhero movies, but TV shows are OK. I say it matches Arrow and finishes in the low-1s.
I think Modern Family has peaked, and like The Middle, I don't see syndication helping it all that much. I think it goes down the league average to the high-3s. Super Fun Night, however, I see as an instaflop. Debuts in the mid-2s. Struggles to stay above 2 until it's dropped in Week 4.
X-Factor disappoints again by dipping another 15%, down to the mid-2s.
Criminal Minds and SVU both lose just 5%. CM at high-2s. SVU at mid-1s.
I agree with pretty much everything here (except I think The Tomorrow People will be a tick higher).
As for me, I'll be watching Modern Family. I thought I would like The Tomorrow People, but the trailer didn't do anything for me and I have other stuff to watch.
I think ABC got cute and it backfired. They should have put either The Goldbergs (my choice) or Trophy Wife after Modern Family, what with being family shows in what used to be a family block. They could have put SFN and Mixology or Pulling (not picked up) at 10:00 either Tuesday (for a two-hour new comedy block) or Wednesday (for a three-hour comedy night, my choice). ABC just did what they always do and defaulted to what would be least likely to get male viewers. They knew Goldbergs and Trophy Wife would likely be stronger than SFN, so they sent them off to fend for themselves while giving Rebel the cushy slot. They weren't counting on NBC changing The Voice's time slot. Now they could have THREE comedies in serious trouble by November sweeps.
I often see mistakes in what shows are male and female skewing. All successful comedies skew male.
http://www.spottedratings.com/search/label/gender
I don't see how that link disproves my point. If Super Fun Night drives away male viewers like I think it will, it'll prove that successful comedies skew more male. I just don't see what the show offers young men. Don't forget, that unlike successful female-focused movies like Bridesmaids or The Heat (or anything with Melissa McCarthy, really), the low male turnout will be averaged in, dampening the total and demo ratings. Look at dramedy Ugly Betty's split. A 2.9 female demo in 2009 is just barely passable, but a 1.1 male demo is a death knell. The show was saved by syndication concerns, not ratings.
Amazingly, the only ABC shows that skewed more than 40% male were Scrubs, Better Off Ted, Lost, Life on Mars and The Unusuals. All of which were gone by the end of the season.
I accidentally replied to you, when I should have replied to Oliver about New Girl and, especially, Modern Family. I agree that SFN will skew too female to be successful as a sitcom.
I don't think enough can be said about how bad a pickup this was in the first place. CBS turned it down in 2012! In a development season so bad they stuck with three sitcom hours when they had five top-tier anchors!! And now ABC put it here?
If anything's going to give the retentionistas any succour this year it's this. (Or maybe The Millers, come to think of it...)
Modern Family: The show was severely on the down path during spring and I think the damage was probably real enough. I think it recovers a bit from the late season numbers but it still very much down year to year starting in the fall. I don't think it falls another 16% but it won't be too far from that. I give it -12%, to a 3.72 But this is one of those where it could go either way and I would not be surprised.
Super Fun Night: I may be biased because I think the show looks atrocious and it bothers me a lot that ABC has picked it and that it has given it the post MF slot, which seems to be the same mistake over and over again. But I think it will flop. It will air all 13 episodes, average a 1.97 and end. I am not predicting what will happen after because there are too many variables but if I had to guess I would say that trophy wife comes here and suburgatory takes it place on tuesday. Where Mixology goes is a question mark. It is also possible that TN flops on fridays and Suburgatory has to go there. Overall, a mess to predict, but I don't believe this show makes it.
Law and Order: SVU: I agree with you that the show will probably hold up ok, but not as ok as last year. I say it is down 16% to a still ok for NBC 1.43 that gives it a final season renewal.
The X-Factor: See 8pm post.
The Tomorrow People: Agree with you 100% and we have virtually the same number at 0.74. It will not beat Supernatural's numbers but there should be enough synergies with Arrow for it to do good business. You are however more positive about Arrow than I am. If Arrow does as well as you think, I think this one will go higher too.
Criminal Minds: I think the show bled a bit more than it was expected last year, so I don't think it will take a league average decline, I think it will fall a little bit more than that. Has a strong fall but a weaker than usual spring, all amounting to a 2.45, down 15% year to year.
Network to watch: I am tired of picking ABC, but they are interesting here too. Still, I will go with the cw because I feel like it was a huge gamble to split Arrow and Supernatural and it will be interesting to see whether or not it pays off.
My picks: Modern Family and The Tomorrow People
I think it might be the worst case with MF, having its lowest premiere when Big Bang has its highest.
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