| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Wednesday 9:00 | 11.2 | 4 | -7% | 4 | 34.8 | 6 | 32% | 3 |
Wednesday 9:00 was actually the most broadcast-viewed timeslot of the week on a night not named Sunday, as it was a very rare spot where all five networks were at least respectable. Its average was down just 7% year-to-year, making it the fourth-healthiest on TV even as Modern Family, Criminal Minds and Fox's singing shows all had underwhelming seasons. The story came on the other two networks, where even the modest numbers from NBC's Law and Order: SVU provided a huge improvement on miserable 2011-12 occupants like Harry's Law and Rock Center. And a resurgent season from Supernatural helped to round out a great Wednesday night on the CW.
The Shows:
 | Modern Family | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 3.47 | |||
| Best Case: The 8:30 lead-in is stronger. The competition, especially from Fox, is weaker. There's another truckload of Emmys. And most importantly, scores and scores of reruns on USA and in local syndication create even more exposure. An improbable +10% to a 4.65. Worst Case: Everybody knows about this show already, so syndication and another redundant round of awards won't make a lick of difference. And it's gonna disappoint in syndication anyway. This show is on the downswing, and it struggles to even find 4.0 again. Down by 20% to 3.37. Likeliest: As I said last week, I expect syndication to help The Middle more than Modern Family, because that show is both lower-profile and better suited for reruns. But it'll still help Modern Family somewhat, sort of to the same degree as I believe it helped Castle last season. Significantly slows the bleed with a 5% drop to 4.00 and holds onto the "megahit" label for at least one more year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 4.20 | ||||
| 4.23 | Occupants | |||
| Modern Family | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -16% | megahit | 4.20 | 4.25 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 4.24 | -0% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 4.80 | -12% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | Super Fun Night (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 2.19 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres October 2 | 2.34 | |||
| Best Case: While it may not seem like a "fit," keep in mind that Modern Family skews much younger than most family comedies. And this show's bigger and dumber humor taps into the broad Modern Family audience better than previous hangout comedies. Oh, and Rebel Wilson is a star worth building a series around! 2.88. Worst Case: So it's the same kind of show as Happy Endings and Apartment 23, shows that had less than 60% retention, except it's much worse than those shows? What could possibly go wrong? A horrifying 1.50 that gets it pulled by November. Likeliest: This might have a shot if most reports didn't peg it as such a mess. But bad show and bad fit is not the kind of thing I bet on. I could see it hanging in there well enough to get a back nine, just so ABC has something to pair with midseasoner Mixology in some other slot. But I'm guessing it's gone from the 9:30 slot by midseason. ABC has other options. I'll say it averages a 2.12 and ends after 13. | Occupants | |||
| Suburgatory | ||||
| 2.23 | 1.75 | |||
| How to Live | ||||
| 2.14 | 1.88 | |||
 | Criminal Minds | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 2.48 | |||
| Best Case: Last year snapped a streak of four straight seasons going somewhere between -0% and -4%. Now it's found a new level and gets right back on that track. -3% to a 2.78. Worst Case: Last season was bad news. It's been quite a run for Criminal Minds, but this show's officially fading. Down 17% to a 2.38, and CBS considers a new Wednesday 9/8c anchor before giving the nod to Minds for one last year. Likeliest: This will be another of those shows to normalize somewhat after a strange result last year, but I do believe we're past the days of this show posting the same raw numbers year after year. Takes a league average drop to 2.63. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.86 | ||||
| 2.87 | Occupants | |||
| Criminal Minds | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -15% | hit | 2.87 | 2.78 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.78 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.22 | -11% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | Law and Order: SVU | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 1.68 | |||
| Best Case: SVU has a better lead-in from Revolution, and a procedural can benefit from the network's attempt to broaden its base audience as a whole. Drops just 6% to a still very renew-worthy 1.63. Worst Case: With Chicago Fire and its decent momentum no longer on the night, NBC Wednesday descends back into total uncompetitiveness, and SVU isn't strong enough to stop it. Drops 23% to a 1.33 and, though they could probably justify bringing it back, it ends five seasons shy of the mothership. Likeliest: I do believe Chicago Fire was somewhat beneficial to this show, so after exceeding my expectations last year, SVU will be another of those "make-up" shows like the above. Give it -15% to a 1.47, but by season's end it'll still be the clear strongest show of NBC's Wednesday, so it barely ekes out one more year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.76 | ||||
| 1.73 | Occupants | |||
| Law and Order: SVU | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -10% | marginal | 1.73 | 1.88 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.88 | -8% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.62 | +6% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
 | The X Factor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 11 | 3.32 | |||
| Best Case: Fox drops the "embrace the trainwreck" approach that didn't work last year, and X is able to reclaim some legitimacy with a stronger judging panel. It drops just 5% to a 2.77, and is actually up year-to-year by season's end. Worst Case: We thought Britney Spears didn't help The X Factor last year, but she actually did help; the show would've totally melted down without her. Said meltdown comes this year. Down over a third to a 1.90, and though those are still "acceptable" ratings, Fox doesn't like the cost, the trajectory, and the damage to Idol, so they decide to end this and try to shore up Idol. Likeliest: It's just when I write these kinds of shows off that they always seem to surge back. The loss of Britney may improve the product. That said, with Idol coming off another bad season, I don't see a compelling reason to say the ship will get righted. Replicates last year's -23% to a very mediocre 2.25 and has to sweat out a renewal decision. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.50 | ||||
| 2.92 | Occupants | |||
| The X Factor | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -23% | hit | 2.97 | 2.90 | |
| True | Sitch | American Idol | ||
| 2.83 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 3.92 | 3.89 | |
| 3.43 | -15% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | The Tomorrow People (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 0.74 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres October 9 | 0.92 | |||
| Best Case: Know what's cooler than one superhero? A bunch of superheroes! Builds by a tick from Arrow at a 1.07 and actually holds off The Vampire Diaries to become the top show on the network in 18-49 (though not in the younger demos). Worst Case: It's the same kind of show as Arrow, except not as good and a lot harder to sell. The Arrow audience comes to see it as a very cheap imitator, and it's axed after one season at a 0.48. Likeliest: This feels to me like a show that will do a predictably solid job after Arrow. Nothing more, nothing less. (Though me saying that probably means it will bomb big-time.) But the good news is that the CW really needs a lot more of that kind of show. I'll give it an upper-70s percent of the Arrow demo at a 0.75, and it's an easy renewal. | Occupants | |||
| Supernatural | ||||
| 0.92 | 0.96 | |||
The Network to Watch: I'm going to take ABC in a close one over CW just because, again, I see The Tomorrow People doing fairly predictably decent business. What ends up happening with Super Fun Night's slot at midseason seems tougher to gauge.
The Picks: Modern Family. Maybe Modern Family's lead-out, whatever that may be at the time. And I'll definitely try The Tomorrow People.
