| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Wednesday 8:00 | 9.3 | 10 | -13% | 16 | 32.2 | 13 | 29% | 8 |
Though Wednesday 8:00 wasn't the weakest weeknight 8:00 hour on broadcast (it edged Tuesday 8:00 by less than a tenth), none of the big four broadcasters really had anything positive to report this year. ABC saw The Middle take a downturn, while The Neighbors was much weaker than 2011-12's Suburgatory. CBS' Survivor continued to trickle downward, NBC had weak comedies, and Fox saw its singing shows keep crumbling. The year's best story by far was on the CW, where Arrow was without a doubt the second-most impressive new show the network has ever developed.
The Shows:
 | The Middle | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 2.04 | |||
| Best Case: The Middle takes off in syndication on ABC Family, becoming nearly as big a deal for them as The Big Bang Theory is on TBS. Recoups all of last year's raw losses with a red-hot second half at a 2.60. Worst Case: It's a single-cam. Single-cams don't syndicate well, and that's just how it is! ABC Wednesday is trending down, and syndication won't have much of an impact on that. Down 16% to a 1.90. Likeliest: Though Modern Family is getting the bigger promotional push on USA, I think lower-profile The Middle is better poised to benefit in first-run from its syndication exposure. It'll remain down year-to-year in the fall, but it makes up that deficit as the season progresses. I'll give it a dead even 2.27. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.20 | ||||
| 2.27 | Occupants | |||
| The Middle | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -13% | solid | 2.27 | 2.33 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.33 | -2% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.50 | -9% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | Back in the Game (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.75 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 25 | 1.78 | |||
| Best Case: It's a new ABC comedy that is actually scheduled well! And it proves a perfect fit with The Middle in the vein of season one of Suburgatory. Maintains or even sometimes slightly builds on The Middle's aud at a 2.40. Worst Case: It might be a "fit," but it turns out to be a bit of a one-trick pony. James Caan screaming at people and being horrible wears thin and it tails off to a barely above Family Tools 1.45 average. It's out at midseason. Likeliest: I'm bullish on this show if only because there are about five other hours on the ABC sked that scream potential major disaster. Even if it's only a The Neighbors-type retainer, that's going to be easily enough for this one to stick around. And it seems like a strong enough pairing with The Middle that it may well be able to do better than that. 1.95 and an easy renewal. | Occupants | |||
| The Neighbors | ||||
| 1.80 | 1.65 | |||
| Suburgatory | ||||
| 1.77 | 1.79 | |||
| Family Tools | ||||
| 1.30 | 1.37 | |||
 | Survivor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 18 | 2.30 | |||
| Best Case: Yeah, bringing back former contestants is nothing new, but this season managed to find some faces from deep in Survivor's megahit past. And the brother-vs.-brother format adds a new kind of tension that really reinvigorates the show. A dead even 2.86. Worst Case: There are so many twists and gimmicks in this season that it feels like Survivor has completely lost its soul. If the spring premiere could drop by 23% year-to-year, a really bad whole season could do that too. 2.20. Likeliest: I'm on the fence here, but my guess is that all this change adds up to about the same kind of effect as the spring's Fans vs. Favorites season: it slightly slows the bleeding. I'll say it goes -10% to a 2.57, mimicking the spring Wednesday average. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.66 | ||||
| 2.86 | Occupants | |||
| Survivor Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -15% | hit | 2.81 | 2.72 | |
| True | Sitch | Survivor Spring | ||
| 2.74 | +4% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 2.57 | 2.78 | |
| 3.00 | -5% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | Revolution | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 25 | 1.36 | |||
| Best Case: Yeah, Revolution had The Voice lead-in, but its audience was far more different from The Voice's audience than previous occupant Smash. It's able to basically hold its late-season numbers at a 1.80 on Wednesday. Worst Case: The Voice helped this show a lot more than people think, as their audiences had almost identical 18-49 skew. Like season two of Smash, it starts in the low 1's and becomes a big problem in a hurry. 1.00, and NBC struggles through the fall before having to resort to a bad night burn-off as they did with Smash. Likeliest: I feel like I read this sentiment a lot online after the NBC sked came out: "It'll struggle, but it'll crush the year-ago comedy averages, so NBC can count that as a win." I'm not feeling "crush." It was sub-2.0 even in the late-regular season episodes last year. It does hold better than Smash, barely well enough for NBC to stick it out on Wednesday for most of the season, but its dip in the spring gets it cancelled after two seasons. 1.35. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.41 | ||||
| 2.57 | Occupants | |||
| Animal Practice | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| solid | 1.22 | 1.19 | ||
| True | Sitch | Whitney | ||
| 2.01 | +28% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.26 | 1.32 | |
| 2.27 | +13% | Dateline | ||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 10:00 | 1.30 | 1.46 | ||
 | The X Factor | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 11 | 3.07 | |||
| Best Case: Fox drops the "embrace the trainwreck" approach that didn't work last year, and X is able to reclaim some legitimacy with a stronger judging panel. It drops just 5% to a 2.77, and is actually up year-to-year by season's end. Worst Case: We thought Britney Spears didn't help The X Factor last year, but she actually did help; the show would've totally melted down without her. Said meltdown comes this year. Down over a third to a 1.90, and though those are still "acceptable" ratings, Fox doesn't like the cost, the trajectory, and the damage to Idol, so they decide to end this and try to shore up Idol. Likeliest: It's just when I write these kinds of shows off that they always seem to surge back. The loss of Britney may improve the product. That said, with Idol coming off another bad season, I don't see a compelling reason to say the ship will get righted. Replicates last year's -23% to a very mediocre 2.25 and has to sweat out a renewal decision. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.22 | ||||
| 2.92 | Occupants | |||
| The X Factor | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -23% | hit | 2.97 | 2.90 | |
| True | Sitch | American Idol | ||
| 2.83 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 3.92 | 3.89 | |
| 3.43 | -15% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
 | Arrow | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres October 9 | 0.83 | |||
| Best Case: With the CW's schedule stronger as a whole, Arrow is able to put together a good old fashioned sophomore bounce. +14% to a 1.20. Worst Case: Arrow benefited more than people think from the pairing with lead-out Supernatural, and there were a lot more "Supernatural viewers who happen to watch Arrow" than "Arrow viewers who happened to watch Supernatural." The network has spread itself too thin, and Arrow tumbles by over 20% to a modest 0.82. Likeliest: I really like this show, but I find it so hard at this point to predict anything on the live-viewing-unfriendly CW will be up year-to-year. Even The Vampire Diaries dropped 15% in season two. Arrow is older skewing, so I'll say its aud is a little less fickle. It drops 8% to a 0.97. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 0.99 | ||||
| 1.05 | Occupants | |||
| Arrow | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| hit(CW) | 1.05 | 1.13 | ||
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.13 | -7% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.10 | -4% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 8:00 | ||||
The Network to Watch: I'm going to take NBC, just because a show moving from a post-Voice berth is probably the most unpredictable. While I don't have high hopes for Revolution, I at least acknowledge it could maybe go either way.
The Picks: It was Arrow and Survivor for me last year, and it'll probably be those two again this year. Watched Back in the Game pilot, and it was OK but probably not something I'll bother with weekly.
