| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Tuesday 9:00 | 8.8 | 12 | -18% | 20 | 35.6 | 5 | 25% | 14 |
A huge part of what plagues Tuesday programming these days is the 9:00 hour, which in 2012-13 was rather easily the least-broadcast viewed 9:00 hour on a weeknight. And that viewing was down the most year-to-year of any weeknight timeslot. The failures were many: ABC limped through much of the season with an ill-advised Happy Endings/Apartment 23 block, NBC had comedies Go On and The New Normal which collapsed during The Voice's hiatus, Fox's New Girl and The Mindy Project severely disappointed, and the CW aired its two biggest newbie bombs of the season Emily Owens M.D. and Cult.
The Shows:
 | The Goldbergs (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.82 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 24 | 1.79 | |||
| Best Case: This show is right in ABC's family comedy wheelhouse, and it's a surprisingly sound fit with the widely co-viewed and family-friendly SHIELD lead-in. ABC finally finds a third comedy anchor at a 2.20. Worst Case: SHIELD disappoints, and nobody who does watch is interested in watching a family comedy after. Averages a pathetic 1.00, holding less than half of its lead-in, and ABC blows up the comedy hour in favor of a drama and/or Dancing results shows at midseason. Likeliest: Wasn't a big fan of the pilot, and I don't see the '80s throwback angle having much appeal, but my guess is its lead-in will funnel in just enough viewers to get it raw numbers that a beleaguered ABC can justify giving a back nine. The numbers are fraudulent, but will the fraud get exposed by season's end? 1.50. | Occupants | |||
| Happy Endings | ||||
| 1.33 | 1.36 | |||
| Dancing with the Stars Spring | ||||
| 2.13 | 2.24 | |||
 | Trophy Wife (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.81 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 24 | 1.78 | |||
| Best Case: Though The Goldbergs doesn't do much, Trophy Wife basically holds that audience. And Super Fun Night has a meltdown on Wednesday. So ABC moves Trophy Wife to the post-Modern Family slot toward the end of the fall, where it's the best fit yet with that show. 2.25. Worst Case: Great, another ABC comedy with a horrific title. The viewers leave SHIELD in droves at 9:00, and they're gonna keep leaving in droves at 9:30. 0.90 and one of the season's first cancellations. Likeliest: I'm hoping against hope that Trophy Wife is able to show enough to make the Best Case scenario play out. It was my favorite of the comedy pilots ABC released by a pretty wide margin and seems like it would work after Modern. Unfortunately, it's probably just going to bleed more The Goldbergs' demo. It manages a 1.20, only barely edging the Apt 23 average, and is out at midseason. | Occupants | |||
| Apartment 23 | ||||
| 1.16 | 1.16 | |||
| Dancing with the Stars Spring | ||||
| 2.13 | 2.24 | |||
 | NCIS: Los Angeles | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 24 | 2.48 | |||
| Best Case: With no SHIELD in the slot, NCIS: LA is able to hold its NCIS lead-in better than ever. Plus, LA is getting much more play on USA Network this fall. So it drops just 3% to a 2.73. Worst Case: LA had some pretty stinky numbers late last season when The Voice moved to 9:00, and that's where it'll be regularly this season. So the low to mid-2's become the norm in season four. Down 19% to a mere 2.27. Likeliest: It seems like every year I try to come up with a reason why LA will drop less than the mothership. I guess SHIELD could be that reason this year. But then again, The Voice's presence at 9/8c will at least cancel that out, and maybe moreso. NCIS and LA remain attached at the hip, with LA dropping an identical 13% to 2.45. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.81 | ||||
| 2.81 | Occupants | |||
| NCIS: Los Angeles | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -12% | hit | 2.81 | 2.23 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.23 | +26% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.08 | -9% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 9:00 | ||||
 | The Voice | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 24 | 2.17 | |||
| Best Case: With DWTS not even on Tuesday anymore and The Voice in the higher-viewed 9/8c slot, it's able to slightly build on last year's fall ratings. 4.15. Worst Case: Did you see how far The Voice fell off in the summer months? That was actual damage to the franchise. (Summer eps not included in the spring average on the right, BTW.) It can't even get back to a 4.0 for the premiere, and low 3's become the norm once blind auditions are done. Down 20% to a 3.26. Likeliest: I don't put a ton of stock in what happened during the summer, because I think the downward momentum in overall viewing snowballed it a little bit. Still, I don't see yet another surge in this show at this point. It posts a healthy, league-average drop kind of season at 3.73. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.12 | ||||
| 4.08 | Occupants | |||
| Go On | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| big hit | 1.99 | 1.52 | ||
| True | Sitch | Ready for Love | ||
| 3.72 | +10% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.27 | 0.95 | |
| 3.20 | +27% | The Voice Spr | ||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 8:00 | 3.35 | 3.47 | ||
 | New Girl | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 17 | 2.01 | |||
| Best Case: Last year's Nick and Jess stuff reignited the buzz around this show, and it picks up some minor momentum across the fall. Then comes the Super Bowl airing, and this show is that rare show poised to really benefit. It has a great spring and ends up +20% to a 2.76. Worst Case: This kind of drop in season two is not a good sign for the future. It happened for My Name is Earl, and that show kept fading fast. It drops 26% to a 1.70 and ekes out a season four, but an Earl-esque four-season run is on the way. Likeliest: Maybe I'm biased (it was one of my biggest misses last year!), but this show was too good in season two to keep crumbling. It was in the 2.0 to 2.3 range from the end of October through the finale, and it basically hangs right within that tight range for most of season three. Down 8% to a 2.13. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.32 | ||||
| 2.30 | Occupants | |||
| New Girl | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -29% | solid | 2.29 | 2.23 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.27 | +1% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.23 | -29% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 9:00 | ||||
 | The Mindy Project | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 17 | 1.56 | |||
| Best Case: Along with New Girl, this super-young skewing show appeals to the streaming catch-up crowd, and it rides the wave of a positive New Girl season. And it gets its creative act together following all those overhauls last season. +15% to a 1.79. Worst Case: It may have had some momentum in the winter, but that was totally gone by the spring when it hung a bunch of 1.3's in a row. That's the level that shows up for the fall, and it gets even uglier in the second half. Down 23% to a 1.20 and vindicates those who said it shouldn't have even gotten this renewal. Dunzo. Likeliest: I'm giving it about the same size drop as New Girl: -9% to a 1.42. Unless it overachieves, I could easily see it taking a hiatus in the winter for something new (Us & Them?) to get the post-New Girl slot for awhile. Its fate will come down to the rest of the Fox comedies. If the cupboard remains as bare as it was this year, season three is possible. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.72 | ||||
| 1.56 | Occupants | |||
| The Mindy Project | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| marginal | 1.57 | 1.36 | ||
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.36 | +15% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.82 | -45% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 9:30 | ||||
 | Supernatural | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres October 8 | 0.32 | |||
| Best Case: The Originals pulls about the same 18-49 numbers as Arrow did last year, so lead-out Supernatural can do the same or maybe even a little better as great counter-programming in this slot. Up a few more hundredths to 0.96. Worst Case: The Originals is not only a ratings disappointment, it's a highly incompatible one for its lead-in Supernatural. Equals the low-end Originals rating at a 0.70. Likeliest: This show finished the season better than it started, with seven 1.0 ratings in the last 11 episodes (and just four in the fall). That said, I do think it's less compatible with The Originals than it was with Arrow. So it loses 11% to a 0.82, but it's regularly a tick ahead of The Originals by season's end and makes it to yet another season. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 0.36 | ||||
| 0.92 | Occupants | |||
| Emily Owens M.D. | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| +25% | solid(CW) | 0.37 | 0.37 | |
| True | Sitch | Cult | ||
| 0.96 | -4% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 0.30 | 0.29 | |
| 0.84 | +10% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Wednesday 9:00 | ||||
The Network to Watch: ABC has the newbies, but I'm actually going with Fox here, because it feels like the whole Tuesday comedy block could really melt down. New Girl is another of 2012-13's many sophomore slumpers looking to right the ship and avoid a relatively young flame-out.
The Picks: Definitely the Fox comedies. If the pilots were any indication, I'll probably stick with Trophy Wife and I'll probably not stick with The Goldbergs, but we'll see.
11 comments:
I'll watch The Goldbergs as well as the FOXcoms. I could not get through the pilots of Trophy Wife or Back in the Game.
I think Tuesday's problem last season was partly due to the lack of diversity of programs: Stars & Voice butting heads at 8:00, then a dogpile of single-cam, hang-out comedies. This year that's certainly fixed. At a bare minimum, NBC and The CW will have patched up this hour on a year-to-year basis.
I'm guessing that unless New Girl's post-Super Bowl airing is an hour long, The Mindy Project's fall performance will inform Fox whether or not it gets the second half-hour. If not, then Brooklyn Nine-Nine if the show makes it that far into the season or Us & Them if 9-9 doesn't.
I'm picking Trophy Wife here for starters. If The Goldbergs is any good, then I'll add it in.
Where have you seen pilots? Every time I look On Demand, I don't see them.
Hulu has Back in the Game/Trophy Wife/The Goldbergs, and it appears Welcome to the Family and Ironside are there now too.
I'm not convinced either of the ABC shows have cut good enough promos to get general attention. By the same token, I see the air kinda being sucked out of the sophomore Fox comedies. They all feel like they're trying way too hard to be "quirky", which may be a problem w/ keeping people past the first few eps.
As for my personal picks:
Don't like the Fox shows. Don't like the look of the ABC shows. Not interested in Supernatural. Blanket Reality ban. All of which is a really long way of saying NCIS:LA season five.
The sad part was that the six-comedy pile-up didn't have to happen. FOX was committed to two hours on Tuesday. NBC decided to give one post-Voice hour to comedies after giving the other to a drama. Fair enough. But once ABC saw that there were four comedies at that hour, they should have pumped the brakes and switched HE and Apt. 23 with Nashville. That change wouldn't have affected anything else, and would have benefited both, IMO.
I always thought that if ever a 10pm sitcom hour could have worked it was a hangout comedy pair on ABC Wednesdays. And, to put it mildly, Nashville would have been a more appropriate DWTS lead-out.
The Voice. see Mondays, but I think tuesdays will be a nicer day for comparisons because the competition is weaker than it was last year and because the hour has usually greater viewing levels.
NCIS LA: I predict a terrible year for LA! The show really bled last year facing the voice and it will have to do so on a consistent basis this year. On top of that, the lead-in will most likely be down (even though far from out). I realize we are talking about a show that has actually been up or even on A18-49 terms every single year, but I think it changes radically this year. -20% in raw numbers make for a shocking drop to a 2.25 and CBS really considers moving the show to Sundays the year after.
New Girl: I am with you in the love for the show but I think the 8pm hour has the potential to crumble even more than last year and New Girl is a much weaker show than it was a year ago. I think it will have a great year creatively though and I think the Superbowl might help. I say it is mostly dead-even in A18-49 terms but it still drops in raw numbers. 2.04
The Mindy Project: I continue to say to whoever want to listen to me that this is one of the most inexplicable renewals from the last few years and that FOX will live to regret it. The only reason that would justify it in my eyes would be huge 18-34 numbers, which is probably the truth since FOX is probably not that stupid. Anyway, I think it will be in trouble. It ended the season terribly. The James Franco effect might help to avoid the troubles early on but they will caught up with the show pretty soon. Down 26% to an ugly 1.15 and gets the cancellation it should have gotten a year ago. (I am not including here the idea that it will not air all the episodes in the slot, but your idea that it will get an hiatus to free up the post new girl slot sounds very accurate. If it ends up airing elsewhere, I think it will get even uglier).
The Goldbergs: This hour is a huge problem for me to predict. I think the show is mismatched with Shield but it still looks to be enough of a draw for the ABC audience that it should do well enough here. Besides, as incompatible as the lead-in could be, it will still be a big enough lead-in. A 1.85, reflecting a 65% retention out of Shield, and in contention for season 2.
Trophy Wife: I think ABC Tuesdays will decline in the ratings as the night goes on, but I think Trophy Wife could be the sole exception. The critics seem to like the show and the pilot appears to be strong. If it gets enough sampling (which it should be able to do due to the Shield halo effect), the show will do just fine. I guess this is the show where we disagree the most so far. I think it builds a bit on The Goldbergs which is enough to make ABC promote the show and maybe even give it a trial run on Wednesdays. When all is said and done, I give it a VERY optimistic 1.90 and a renewal at the end of the season.
Supernatural: Going from the show where we disagree the most to the show where we agree the most... I have Supernatural at 0.82 as well. I think it takes a league average drop and is practically even with The Originals the whole season, making for yet another strong night for the cw.
Network to watch: There is a lot of interesting stuff going on. I think FOX has an important hour and I think CBS will be very interesting to watch because I really predict LA to fall badly (or maybe I am completely wrong lol). But I still have to go with ABC with the two newbies, because I have no idea which way they will go.
My picks: New Girl, The Voice and most likely Trophy Wife
Thanks for the info, I will sample Trophy Wife now then!
I argued the entire season and summer before that that was exaclty what should have happened. The hangout comedies would have done better at 10h Wednesdays, especially HE, and DWTS/Nashville/Private Practice would be a very cohesive, compatible night for ABC that would provide good counter programming to everything else that was going on. Sometimes I wonder how can we all agree on something like this except the network in question.
I agree with you and I think that ABC learned from its mistake and that is why we are seeing family comedies here instead of something like Super Fun Night. As much as I hate it on Wednesdays, I understand why it couldn't be here either, as it would be competing for the same audience that The Voice and the Fox comedies already have. The family comedies at least have a fighting chance.
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