| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Tuesday 8:00 | 9.3 | 11 | -9% | 10 | 33.2 | 11 | 28% | 10 |
The 2012-13 season was brutal for Tuesday programming in general, but the 8:00 hour was the healthiest of the night, and Tuesday was one of just two nights of the week on which the 8:00 hour had the most broadcast viewing. This was mostly because NBC scheduled The Voice in the 8:00 hour for most of its two seasons, but CBS was also at its strongest with the mothership NCIS, and ABC did best in this hour in the fall with the Dancing with the Stars results.
The Shows:
 | Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.69 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 24 | 1.65 | |||
| Best Case: The association with the third-highest-grossing film ever helps create huge initial sampling, and a strong writing team and a cast full of stars in the making keeps a huge chunk of those samplers on board. It battles its CBS counterpart to be TV's top drama and wins it across the whole season (though it's close in spring). 3.20. Worst Case: The association with The Avengers also means people inevitably make comparisons to The Avengers. And SHIELD suffers from those comparisons, especially in the acting and visuals departments. A front-loaded 1.60 average, and while it still has borderline-worthy numbers, ABC opts to cut its losses and cancel it after one full season. Likeliest: It's become somewhat en vogue lately to say this show is setting up for disappointment. I suppose it depends on your expectations, but I still feel there's enough pedigree behind the scenes that this will be a hit program, though more of an Arrow-type player than a mega-game changer. I'm giving it a 2.60 average, tailing off into the low 2's late in the season, but ABC will have too many other problems to even remotely consider a cancellation. | Occupants | |||
| Dancing with the Stars Fall | ||||
| 2.03 | 1.95 | |||
| Celebrity Wife Swap | ||||
| 1.83 | 1.91 | |||
| Splash | ||||
| 1.38 | 1.52 | |||
 | NCIS | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 24 | 2.82 | |||
| Best Case: SHIELD is a big disappointment and makes little real impact on the NCIS, which returns to its usual less-than-league-average decline trajectory. Just -7% to a still best-drama-on-broadcast 3.11. Worst Case: SHIELD might be the most legitimate competition NCIS has had to deal with since the American Idol days, and the effect will be very noticeable. After an incredible decade, the cracks finally begin to appear. Drops over 20% to a 2.65. Likeliest: SHIELD will mean that, for the second straight year, NCIS takes the largest drop in series history. But after losing to SHIELD in the season's first few weeks, NCIS ultimately proves the victor of the showdown, winning by around a half point in the spring. -13% to a 2.90. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.36 | ||||
| 3.35 | Occupants | |||
| NCIS | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -11% | big hit | 3.35 | 3.24 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 3.24 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.45 | -3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 8:00 | ||||
 | The Biggest Loser | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres October 8 | 2.83 | |||
| Best Case: TBL was a big eye-opener in posting raw numbers growth last year, and that was during the winter when it was literally the only respectable program on the entire network. This time it's in The Voice's halo, which improbably takes it up another small notch to a 2.44. Worst Case: The initial bounce from Jillian's return has totally worn off, and TBL returns to about the same Plus level as when it was running out of steam two years ago. Down 22% to a 1.80. Likeliest: It's not an easy timeslot, but there's a lot to like about this scheduling. It seems like good counter-programming, plus it should get some synergy from The Voice, plus the one-hour episodes should cut down on the bloat. This will prove a very respectable third-place option, shedding just a tick from last winter to a 2.20. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.25 | ||||
| 2.32 | Occupants | |||
| The Voice Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| +6% | solid | 4.13 | 3.70 | |
| True | Sitch | Off Their Rockers | ||
| 2.21 | +5% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.45 | 1.39 | |
| 1.90 | +22% | The Voice Spr | ||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | 4.10 | 4.28 | ||
 | Dads (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.73 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 17 | 1.86 | |||
| Best Case: With Seth MacFarlane behind it and a Family Guy-esque tone, it's able to carve out an 18-34 niche as SHIELD's audience ages up. Give it a decent improvement on last year's Raising Hope average at a 1.90, and it gets renewed. Worst Case: All the dudes that are supposed to be watching this will find two much more appealing drama options in the same timeslot. It averages a 1.15 and is replaced (probably by Raising Hope) after the baseball hiatus. Likeliest: If Ben and Kate could last for sixteen episodes, I have a sneaking suspicion this show finds a way to stick around for a little while. They may ultimately look for a Tuesday option that's more compatible with 9-9, but maybe Dads gets a whirl after Family Guy on Sunday or something. I'm saying no season two, but no early hook either. 1.40. | Occupants | |||
| Raising Hope | ||||
| 1.64 | 1.59 | |||
| Hell's Kitchen | ||||
| 2.00 | 2.21 | |||
 | Brooklyn Nine-Nine (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 1.54 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 17 | 1.70 | |||
| Best Case: Andy Samberg is actually a pretty solid draw in the young male demos Fox is going for. If Dads hits its best case number, 9-9 can probably do even better. 2.05 and an easy renewal. Worst Case: The niche brand of NBC comedy makes its way to Fox! Paired with an incompatible Dads and up against a lot of competition, 9-9 is DOA and, though it outlasts Dads, it gets no help when Fox changes its lead-in. Gone after 13 at a 1.10. Likeliest: Fox is going to have a pretty rough time on Tuesday, but as with The Mindy Project last year, they're probably going to want to be patient with something. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is the choice, as it has much more critical backing and shows minor growth from Dads and from the year-ago Ben and Kate episodes. 1.50 and a close call for season two. | Occupants | |||
| Ben and Kate | ||||
| 1.34 | 1.28 | |||
| Hell's Kitchen | ||||
| 2.00 | 2.21 | |||
 | The Originals (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 0.47 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres October 3 | 0.56 | |||
| Best Case: Unlike most spin-offs, The Originals brings over multiple significant, appealing characters from the mothership. Those characters help the show post a surprisingly high percentage of The Vampire Diaries' demo. 1.02 average. Worst Case: Turns out most of TVD's appeal is in the three lead actors, not in the Originals. The CW's young, fickle audience isn't particularly interested in devoting another hour of their lives to this universe. Plus, it faces SHIELD! It's basically a half-TVD at a 0.55. It gets a back nine and is renewal-worthy, but the CDub determines they'd be better off bringing these characters back to an also struggling mothership. Likeliest: This show is going to do fine. Not great, not another TVD-type tentpole, not even an Arrow-sized hit, but certainly a cut above most of what the network has greenlit in the last several years. I give it a 0.78 average. | Occupants | |||
| Hart of Dixie | ||||
| 0.55 | 0.57 | |||
The Network to Watch: ABC's got the most-hyped newbie of the fall, so it's got to be them. But the CW and Fox's shows would be the most interesting in many other slots.
The Picks: I'll probably be a viewer of SHIELD. We'll see about the Fox comedies.
