Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Sunday 8:00	11.7	3	-8%	8	37.1	2	31%	5

It's hard to imagine the Sunday 8:00 hour having a truly horrible season on a year-to-year basis anytime soon, considering it consists of NFL football, which keeps getting stronger, and a couple shows that almost never take big drops (The Amazing Race and The Simpsons). The only real wild card is ABC's third-year drama Once Upon a Time, but what a wild card it is after collapsing during an ill-advised awards season run in season two.

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The Shows:

		Once Upon a Time	Slot Average
		Premieres September 29	2.51
		Best Case: While Once is a clearly weakened show in its 2.7-ish fall episodes, much smarter scheduling and a better storyline are able to curb most of the in-season damage. It averages a 2.52, down 7% year-to-year, but the late-season episodes are practically even. Worst Case: The last few episodes of the season were down about 30% year-to-year, and that steep decline continues for all of season three, leaving its average at a mere 1.90. That's not enough to get it cancelled for 2014-15, but this is a four-year flameout in the making. Likeliest: We can argue about how my True metric treats Sunday shows as a whole, but over the course of the season they're at least consistent (looking at steadier Sunday shows like The Amazing Race and Fox animation). In other words: what happened to Once in the spring was very real damage to the franchise. I have little doubt it will be down huge in the fall. The question is if the scheduling slows the late-season bleed. I think it does, but as a whole the season still drops another 20% to 2.18.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.74
2.72			Occupants
			Once Upon a Time
y2y	Label
-17%	hit		2.72	2.61
True	Sitch
2.61	+4%
Last Pick	Miss
3.20	-15%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:00

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		The Amazing Race	Slot Average
		Premieres September 29	4.18
		Best Case: Bigger football = bigger 60 Minutes = bigger The Amazing Race lead-ins. 2.50, down just 2%. Worst Case: I can't come up with any reason why it would have a terrible season, but I'll just say it randomly has a drop a few points larger than the league average drop. -13% to a 2.22. Likeliest: This show was a real ratings bore last season, dropping by almost exactly the league average amount in both the fall and the spring. I guess I'll say it drops a little less than that this year because its Once Upon a Time competition is going to depreciate. -6% to a 2.40.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.62
2.56			Occupants
			The Amazing Race Fall
y2y	Label
-11%	solid		2.54	2.47
True	Sitch		The Amazing Race Spring
2.35	+9%
Last Pick	Miss		2.36	2.42
2.65	-3%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:00

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		Sunday Night Football	Slot Average
		Premieres September 5	3.22
		Best Case: There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another couple tenths to 8.56. Worst Case: Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60. Likeliest: Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.46
8.16			Occupants
			Football Night
y2y	Label
-2%	megahit		4.14	3.87
True	Sitch		Sunday Night Football
7.89	+3%
Last Pick	Miss		8.13	7.85
8.00	+2%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:30

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		The Simpsons	Slot Average
		Premieres September 29	2.48
		Best Case: After catching some bad breaks last year, everything goes right this time, including one of the great NFL games of all time for its annual playoff game lead-in episode. +2% to a 2.54. Worst Case: It was down 13% last year, which shows people are finally starting to lose interest in one of the great TV institutions. It loses 18% to a very mediocre 2.04, and Fox opts to end the series and cut its animation presence down to just one hour (Family Guy/Bob's Burgers). Likeliest: I've had a few of these shows that I see "making up" for a slightly off-kilter season last year. The Simpsons, which had one of its biggest drops in the last decade, could well be another. It's gonna drop a little less than the league average, -7% to a 2.32.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.76
2.49			Occupants
			The Simpsons
y2y	Label
-13%	solid		2.51	2.24
True	Sitch
2.23	+12%
Last Pick	Miss
2.61	-5%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:00

		Bob's Burgers	Slot Average
		Premieres September 29	1.94
		Best Case: Bob's retention of its The Simpsons lead-in seemed to get better as the season progressed. Its repeats have been posting pretty solid numbers on Adult Swim, which will lead to some goodness on the first-run front. It goes another +6% to a 2.05. Worst Case: With The Cleveland Show over and American Dad! and The Simpsons on their way out, Fox promotes the animation block a lot less than usual. Bob's crumbles by nearly 20% to a 1.58. Likeliest: I see Bob's lead-in The Simpsons having a pretty decent season, and the Adult Swim exposure will help Bob's Burgers have an even better one. It drops just 3% to a 1.87 demo.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.98
1.93			Occupants
			Bob's Burgers
y2y	Label
+4%	marginal		1.97	1.61
True	Sitch
1.60	+21%
Last Pick	Miss
2.15	-10%
2012-13 Slot
Sunday 8:30

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The Network to Watch: ABC. How long of a run does Once Upon a Time really have in it? This will be a really big year in terms of answering that question.

The Picks: Once Upon a Time. Football.