Additionally, you might notice that I have done a major shake-up of the site layout, something that I've been very slowly working on all summer. It's the first significant layout change since the day of the very first War of 18-49 post over three years ago! (Shout-out if you're one of the elite few who remembers the old green & yellow layout from this blog's first year of existence.) I thought it was overdue to put the site's current strengths front and center, as the old blue/blue/blue layout was designed around features that don't even exist anymore. There may be a few tweaks to come, but I wanted to go ahead and get it installed today because I've made the Best Case/Worst Case tables wider and didn't want to have to un-widen and re-widen them. Please give me any feedback you can think of on this new look, as I want it to be an improvement on the old one.
Today, we're warming up for the Best Case/Worst Case big guns with this look at the usually dull Sunday 7:00 hour. As I said last year, this hour generally has overall viewing in line with a Friday or Saturday primetime hour, but it gets to pretend it's a real boy during football season because it houses the end of the late afternoon NFL games.
The Shows:
 | America's Funniest Home Videos | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 29 | 1.43 | |||
| Best Case: AFV had a surprisingly decent hold last year as the rest of ABC Sunday crumbled. It can do it again! Another -7% to a 1.39. Worst Case: It's gonna get really ugly from 8:00 to 11:00 on ABC Sunday, and that has to matter at some point. And this show is bound to even out from its overachievement last year. Down 18% to a 1.22. Likeliest: Now that I have a decade of Plus data on this show, it really amazes me how independent this show is from the rest of ABC. Its 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons, when ABC Sunday had the strongest three-hour lineup on television, were really no different for AFV than other seasons. Still, I say it is due to drop a bit more than average since it overachieved a bit last year. I'll say it goes -12% to a 1.31. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.48 | ||||
| 1.49 | Occupants | |||
| America's Funniest Home Videos | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -7% | marginal | 1.49 | 1.42 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.42 | +5% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.44 | +3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 7:00 | ||||
 | 60 Minutes | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 29 | 4.78 | |||
| Best Case: The NFL has another of its massively compelling seasons, which means an even more incredible fall lead-in than ever for 60M. It upticks to a 2.21. Worst Case: Last year was football's first down season in years, and that trend is only going to snowball this season. Throw in no extra election interest as the show had last year and 60 Minutes takes one of its larger drops, -13% to a 1.84. Likeliest: As long as CBS keeps airing 60 Minutes after football, we're going to continue to see it slowly get stronger and stronger. I'm giving it another slightly-less-than-league-average drop: -7% to a 1.96. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.14 | ||||
| 2.11 | Occupants | |||
| 60 Minutes | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -8% | solid | 1.60 | 1.56 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.65 | +28% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.18 | -3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 7:00 | ||||
I don't preview pregame shows like Football Night in America, but I'm gonna go ahead and put the Sunday Night Football predix here.
 | Sunday Night Football | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 5 | 1.17 | |||
| Best Case: There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another couple tenths to 8.56. Worst Case: Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60. Likeliest: Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.06 | ||||
| 8.16 | Occupants | |||
| Football Night | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -2% | megahit | 1.76 | 1.60 | |
| True | Sitch | Dateline | ||
| 7.89 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.26 | 1.14 | |
| 8.00 | +2% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 8:30 | ||||
The Network to Watch: Since the NBC game doesn't actually start in the 7:00 hour, nothing is of great interest to me as an industry follower. I guess I'll just say I'm most intrigued by either CBS or Fox and how much the NFL overrun helps the subsequent programs.
The Picks: I'm watching NFL overruns!
8 comments:
I am happy that this is back, and I like the fact that you share how your pick did last year. I also like the new site, but I do not remember the first one, as I found this website one day when TBNTN linked to it for an explanation of what Hell's Kitchen meant to FOX (your War of 18-49).
I always have poor initial response to site redesigns because of how screwed up Facebook and YouTube have become (and now, apparently, Twitter wants long-form hari-kiri, too). But I think I'll come around to this one in time.
The new look is good, as clear as the old one and updated :)
Where do we go next? Sunday 8/7 or Monday 8/7? :)
Based on history, Monday 8/7 central.
I was hoping to sneak it in under the radar following the Twitter and Yahoo Sports redesigns.
You fail to comprehend the awareness of the internet to such things, Mr. Spot.
I still think CBS is making an error by sticking with 60 Minutes here to the detriment of its Sundays. Smoothing out the erratic football lead-in and reintroducing consistent start times for all its shows would be a start to building a stronger night for the Eye, and the easiest way to do that is move 60 Minutes and create an OT-like after show similar to Fox's.
I don't see AFV getting affected by the rest of the line-up. It's almost a syndicated show by this point. It's so off-brand. It gets no promotion. People who watch the show are people who want to watch the show, and I don't see that changing much year-over-year.
60 Minutes is such an odd duck. To me, it would fit perfect on either Friday, Saturday or later Sunday. I'd go with Sunday, because it's already a surrender night for The Eye anyways. What gets me is that it already has three or four stories in each episode, so they could conceivably just air part of an episode if they wanted to, and they could use commercials to make up the difference. That would keep the rest of their line-up on time.
FNiA has always been kinda fraudulent. It's just people tuning in early for the big game of the week. I think that it'll go down less than a percent, if at all.
Post a Comment