Additionally, you might notice that I have done a major shake-up of the site layout, something that I've been very slowly working on all summer. It's the first significant layout change since the day of the very first War of 18-49 post over three years ago! (Shout-out if you're one of the elite few who remembers the old green & yellow layout from this blog's first year of existence.) I thought it was overdue to put the site's current strengths front and center, as the old blue/blue/blue layout was designed around features that don't even exist anymore. There may be a few tweaks to come, but I wanted to go ahead and get it installed today because I've made the Best Case/Worst Case tables wider and didn't want to have to un-widen and re-widen them. Please give me any feedback you can think of on this new look, as I want it to be an improvement on the old one.
Today, we're warming up for the Best Case/Worst Case big guns with this look at the usually dull Sunday 7:00 hour. As I said last year, this hour generally has overall viewing in line with a Friday or Saturday primetime hour, but it gets to pretend it's a real boy during football season because it houses the end of the late afternoon NFL games.
The Shows:
 | America's Funniest Home Videos | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 29 | 1.43 | |||
| Best Case: AFV had a surprisingly decent hold last year as the rest of ABC Sunday crumbled. It can do it again! Another -7% to a 1.39. Worst Case: It's gonna get really ugly from 8:00 to 11:00 on ABC Sunday, and that has to matter at some point. And this show is bound to even out from its overachievement last year. Down 18% to a 1.22. Likeliest: Now that I have a decade of Plus data on this show, it really amazes me how independent this show is from the rest of ABC. Its 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons, when ABC Sunday had the strongest three-hour lineup on television, were really no different for AFV than other seasons. Still, I say it is due to drop a bit more than average since it overachieved a bit last year. I'll say it goes -12% to a 1.31. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.48 | ||||
| 1.49 | Occupants | |||
| America's Funniest Home Videos | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -7% | marginal | 1.49 | 1.42 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.42 | +5% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 1.44 | +3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 7:00 | ||||
 | 60 Minutes | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 29 | 4.78 | |||
| Best Case: The NFL has another of its massively compelling seasons, which means an even more incredible fall lead-in than ever for 60M. It upticks to a 2.21. Worst Case: Last year was football's first down season in years, and that trend is only going to snowball this season. Throw in no extra election interest as the show had last year and 60 Minutes takes one of its larger drops, -13% to a 1.84. Likeliest: As long as CBS keeps airing 60 Minutes after football, we're going to continue to see it slowly get stronger and stronger. I'm giving it another slightly-less-than-league-average drop: -7% to a 1.96. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.14 | ||||
| 2.11 | Occupants | |||
| 60 Minutes | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -8% | solid | 1.60 | 1.56 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 1.65 | +28% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.18 | -3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 7:00 | ||||
I don't preview pregame shows like Football Night in America, but I'm gonna go ahead and put the Sunday Night Football predix here.
 | Sunday Night Football | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 5 | 1.17 | |||
| Best Case: There have been some promising preseason results. Last season's decline was just a blip amid what has been an upward trend across the last decade. It makes up last year's 0.2-point decline and adds another couple tenths to 8.56. Worst Case: Last year saw SNF take its first raw numbers downturn since 2007-08 (and the Super Bowl take its first since 2009). With Tim Tebow now completely irrelevant, the casual audience keeps tuning out. Takes a drop nearly in line with entertainment ratings to a 7.60. Likeliest: Football is going to remain an absolute beast, but I don't know that there's yet another explosion in it. My guess is we're pretty much at the saturation point societally. There aren't tons of new fans to be added. I'll give it another -2% this year to the same 8.00 I picked last year. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 1.06 | ||||
| 8.16 | Occupants | |||
| Football Night | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -2% | megahit | 1.76 | 1.60 | |
| True | Sitch | Dateline | ||
| 7.89 | +3% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 1.26 | 1.14 | |
| 8.00 | +2% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Sunday 8:30 | ||||
The Network to Watch: Since the NBC game doesn't actually start in the 7:00 hour, nothing is of great interest to me as an industry follower. I guess I'll just say I'm most intrigued by either CBS or Fox and how much the NFL overrun helps the subsequent programs.
The Picks: I'm watching NFL overruns!
