Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 10/9c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Saturday 10:00	6.4	17	-20%	21	29.4	17	22%	17

This hour was down the most year-to-year of any! It seems CBS gets much of the blame, with its 1.25 slot average down over 30% from last year's 1.80. 48 Hours was down more than usual, but a large chunk of that probably comes down to its football games; LSU/Alabama scored a 4.0 (down from last year's 7.2). It also had a second game last year (2.8) but just the one this time.

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The Shows:

		Saturday Night Football	Slot Average
		Premieres August 31	1.30
		Best Case: The premiere last Saturday was up a tenth year-to-year, and ABC's conferences are generally more interesting. Let's take it back up to just above its 2011 average at 2.30. Worst Case: The premiere would've been down if not for the game being so good. The increasingly fragmented world of college football TV takes a chunk out of the biggest stage. ABC is overrun with blowouts. Down 15% to a 1.82. Likeliest: I guess I'm cheating a bit here since the first rating of the season (the 3.1 for the premiere) is already out. But last year the show that had already premiered as of its post (America's Next Top Model) ended up being one of my biggest misses. So I'll try not to be too influenced. I'm saying this ends up close to even with a 2.14. I think the difference in quality of games with Fox will grow.	Slot Orig Avg
			n/a
2.15			Occupants
			Saturday Night Football
y2y	Label
-4%	hit(Fri)		2.15	2.46
True	Sitch
2.46	-13%
Last Pick	Miss
2.05	+5%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:30

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		48 Hours	Slot Average
		Premieres September 28	1.25
		Best Case: +4%. 1.05. Worst Case: -20%. 0.81. Likeliest: Is anyone reading this? Can't go but so wrong with a relatively normal drop for a newsmagazine: -8% to a 0.93.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.02
1.01			Occupants
			48 Hours
y2y	Label
-13%	flop		1.03	1.28
True	Sitch
1.24	-19%
Last Pick	Miss
1.10	-8%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 10:00

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		CFB on Fox	Slot Average
		Premieres September 7	n/a
		Best Case: There just wasn't that much awareness that Fox was airing football last year! The games are constantly promoed on the new Fox Sports 1. A bunch of compelling stories pop up out of nowhere in the Big 12 and Pac 12. It grows 20% to a 1.27. Worst Case: The Big 12 has no great teams, and the Pac 12's great teams are decidedly un-sexy. There's just no real interest in these games compared to the SEC/ACC/Big 10 fare over on ABC. Dives to a measly 0.90. Likeliest: I'm going pretty close to the worst case here. Maybe I'm an east coast homer, but I just don't see the Big 12 and Pac 12 being as interesting going into the season unless USC surprises (and they were a big disappointment that may have hurt Fox last year). Down a tenth to a 0.96.	Slot Orig Avg
			n/a
1.06			Occupants
			CFB on Fox
y2y	Label
	flop		1.06	1.16
True	Sitch
1.16	-9%
Last Pick	Miss
1.20	-12%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:00

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The Network to Watch: I guess Fox, since they're still kind of new to this primetime football thing?

The Picks: Whichever college football game I like best!