Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Monday 9:00	10.9	5	-14%	17	36.8	3	30%	6

Like the Monday 8:00 hour, 9:00 had a ton of viewing and a ton of broadcast viewing, but it was one of primetime's most eroded hours on a year-to-year basis. 2 Broke Girls was not able to live up to Two and a Half Men's year-ago Kutcher-inflated numbers, Dancing with the Stars completely collapsed, and Fox was totally off the map in the fall with The Mob Doctor. Things brightened somewhat at midseason when Fox introduced The Following.

---

The Shows:

		Dancing with the Stars	Slot Average
		Premieres September 16	2.32
		Best Case: Having results shows on Monday gets more viewers to stay. The cast is actually kind of splashy for once. And it gets a head start on The Voice, which helped to a small extent in the spring season. Let's say it breaks even: 2.26. Worst Case: Trimming to one night did basically nothing for So You Think You Can Dance. CBS' competing comedy block rebounds. And four straight DWTS seasons have dropped by 20% or more. Why stop now? Drops nearly 30% more to a 1.60, but probably still gets a spring season because of ABC's problems elsewhere. Likeliest: I said I might modify this if the cast announcement on Wednesday was a really big deal, but I'm not. I actually think it's one of their better recent casts, but not a huge difference-maker. This show continues to erode. The spring 2013 season did a little better, so I think the bleeding is slowing, but it still loses 16% to a 1.90 and becomes a sub-league average show for the first time.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.33
2.26			Occupants
			Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y	Label
-31%	solid		2.26	2.16
True	Sitch		The Bachelor
2.16	+5%
Last Pick	Miss		2.71	2.54
2.90	-22%		Dancing with the Stars Spring
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:00			2.29	2.33

---

		2 Broke Girls	Slot Average
		Premieres September 23	2.84
		Best Case: A surging How I Met Your Mother at 8:00 lifts all Monday comedy boats, and 2 Broke Girls also gets some help on the other side from promising lead-out Mom. Up a tick to a 3.47. Worst Case: 2 Broke Girls took another alarming drop late last season. CBS just threw this show to the wolves as a 9:00 anchor far too early, and having We Are Men as a lead-in is the biggest wolf of all. CBS eventually pulls WAM, but it lets it hang around enough to seriously damage 2BG, which is down another 23% to a 2.60. Its future as the Monday 9:00 anchor is in serious doubt. Likeliest: Terrible as this show is, last year's overly severe drop was just the show coming back to earth after pulling such huge ratings in season one. With HIMYM holding up nicely at 8:00, 2 Broke Girls will just about settle in, down 10% to a 3.05.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.34
3.37			Occupants
			2 Broke Girls
y2y	Label
-21%	big hit		3.35	2.91
True	Sitch
2.92	+15%
Last Pick	Miss
4.25	-21%
2012-13 Slot
Monday 9:00

		Mom (NEW!)	Slot Average
			2.65
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 23	2.93
Best Case: A Chuck Lorre sitcom with some actual critical backing? Sign me the hell up. Anna Faris is a perfect sitcom star, and Mom regularly builds from 2 Broke Girls at a whooping 3.20. It anchors a Monday hour next season. Worst Case: Most of the Lorre shows have some kind of twist or hook, but this one turns out to be just as generic as its title. It attracts little interest out of the gate and is replaced by previous occupant Mike and Molly early in 2014. 2.10. Likeliest: While this show has less upside than the newbies on Thursday, I also see it as the most likely success. It should be another solid Mike and Molly-esque Chuck Lorre entry, and quite possibly a little better. I'm giving it M&M's 2012-13 average of 2.90, which will make it a beyond comfortable season two renewal, and it may even get that anchor role as HIMYM departs.			Occupants
			Mike and Molly
			2.90	2.50

---

		The Voice	Slot Average
		Premieres September 23	3.62
		Best Case: With DWTS increasingly irrelevant and NBC's lineup more stable as a whole, The Voice is able to nearly replicate last year's fall ratings. 4.35. Worst Case: Did you see how far The Voice fell off in the summer months? That was actual damage to the franchise. (Summer eps not included in the spring average on the right, BTW.) It can't even get back to a 4.0 for the premiere, and low 3's become the norm once blind auditions are done. Down 21% to a 3.48. Likeliest: I don't put a ton of stock in what happened during the summer, because I think the downward momentum in overall viewing snowballed it a little bit. Still, I don't see yet another surge in this show at this point. It posts a healthy, league-average drop kind of season at 3.96.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.76
4.38			Occupants
			The Voice Fall
y2y	Label
	megahit		4.38	3.99
True	Sitch		The Biggest Loser
3.99	+10%
Last Pick	Miss		2.25	2.14
3.66	+20%		The Voice Spr
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:00			4.48	4.31

---

Fox note: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass.

		Sleepy Hollow (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.75
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 16	1.94
Best Case: Some of the biggest pleasant surprises in recent years have been shows based on folk/fairy tales, and this one (promoted a ton during the NFL on Sunday) will continue the trend. It opens at Fox's rather typical low-3's drama premiere level and settles in the mid-2's. 2.60. Worst Case: This is just another one of those place-holder fall dramas that doesn't stand much chance. It premieres about at The Mob Doctor levels and settles in the same vicinity. It's never seen again after Almost Human shows up in November. 1.00. Likeliest: I'm giving this a huge best/worst range because I'm reasonably confident this is gonna premiere better than The Mob Doctor, but I'm much less confident about it not being a trainwreck of a show. I'm saying it premieres in the 2's, drops big in the subsequent weeks, and Fox has a tough decision about the "late fall." Worried about the downward trajectory, they leave more stable Bones on Monday, premiere Almost Human as planned, while Sleepy Hollow goes to Friday and dies. 1.20.			Occupants
			The Mob Doctor
			0.96	0.95
			The Following
			2.63	2.54

---

		Beauty and the Beast	Slot Average
		Premieres October 7	0.32
		Best Case: The thing about BatB is that it actually skewed a lot older than its The Vampire Diaries lead-in. That means they had different audiences, and BatB will hold up well elsewhere. Delivers its late-season 0.5 level most weeks and averages a 0.50. Worst Case: What that skew discrepancy means is that TVD was actually aging down the BatB audience. Without that lead-in, there's no real demo interest, and it's way incompatible with its new lead-in Hart of Dixie. Dive-bombs by more than half to a measly 0.28. Likeliest: I don't see this going so beautifully, though it will at least clear the very low 0.34 bar that the net averaged in the slot last year. It will drop by a tick from Hart of Dixie most weeks, be even with Hart of Dixie some weeks, and that means a 0.38 average. It's back on the bubble and likely done because it doesn't bring enough 18-34s.	Slot Orig Avg
			0.34
0.61			Occupants
			Gossip Girl
y2y	Label
	marginal(CW)		0.44	0.46
True	Sitch		90210
0.58	+5%
Last Pick	Miss		0.29	0.34
0.72	-15%
2012-13 Slot
Thursday 9:00

---

The Cable:

Show	Network	Premieres	Avg	y2y
Monday Night Football	ESPN	9/9	5.38	-8%
WWE Raw	USA	ongoing	1.46	-13%

---

The Network to Watch: I'll go with CBS. 2 Broke Girls needs to steady the ship after some major erosion last year, and Mom needs to stay above water at minimum, or it could derail the new show at 10:00 as well. If not, CBS could have several trouble spots to deal with.

The Picks: I'll watch Sleepy Hollow, at least initially. I'll also check out Mom... at least initially. If neither of those pan out, then football it is.