| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Monday 8:00 | 10.0 | 7 | -14% | 19 | 34.6 | 7 | 29% | 7 |
Monday became the biggest night of the week for entertainment programming in 2012-13, but the overall broadcast viewing still took a well above average year-to-year dip in the 8:00 and 9:00 hours. The continued meltdown of Dancing with the Stars plus the CBS comedies coming back to earth were the main factors. CBS' 8:30 occupants did a particularly egregious job trying to hang with last year's huge 2 Broke Girls average.
The Shows:
 | Dancing with the Stars | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 16 | 2.18 | |||
| Best Case: Having results shows on Monday gets more viewers to stay. The cast is actually kind of splashy for once. And it gets a head start on The Voice, which helped to a small extent in the spring season. Let's say it breaks even: 2.26. Worst Case: Trimming to one night did basically nothing for So You Think You Can Dance. CBS' competing comedy block rebounds. And four straight DWTS seasons have dropped by 20% or more. Why stop now? Drops nearly 30% more to a 1.60, but probably still gets a spring season because of ABC's problems elsewhere. Likeliest: I might modify this next week if the cast announcement on Wednesday is a really big deal, but I see this show continuing to erode. The spring 2013 season did a little better, so I think the bleeding is slowing, but it still loses 16% to a 1.90 and becomes a sub-league average show for the first time. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.22 | ||||
| 2.26 | Occupants | |||
| Dancing with the Stars Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -31% | solid | 2.26 | 2.16 | |
| True | Sitch | The Bachelor | ||
| 2.16 | +5% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 2.71 | 2.54 | |
| 2.90 | -22% | Dancing with the Stars Spring | ||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | 2.29 | 2.33 | ||
 | How I Met Your Mother | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 23 | 2.60 | |||
| Best Case: The 31% finale spike means there's a ton of interest in the resolution of the main storyline. A massive premiere, massive finale and a surprisingly effective season-long plan keeps the mid-section high. +10% to a 3.52. Worst Case: A whole season revolving around a single wedding weekend? Meh. There's interest in the end, but not in watching this creatively spent show on a week-to-week basis leading up to the end. Drops another 15% to 2.72. Likeliest: I'm admittedly rather skeptical about the concept behind the final season. Still, there's almost no doubt there will be some large numbers for the premiere and the finale. Though I expect a somewhat underwhelming mid-section of the season with some mid-to-upper 2's, it all adds up to only a tiny 3% year-to-year drop to a 3.10. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.19 | ||||
| 3.20 | Occupants | |||
| How I Met Your Mother | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -21% | big hit | 3.20 | 3.15 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 3.15 | +2% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 3.30 | -3% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | ||||
 | We Are Men (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 2.24 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 30 | 2.30 | |||
| Best Case: Partners set the bar really low in this slot, and We Are Men is able to do about the same retention out of an up-year-to-year HIMYM. That keeps it around into 2014 for a tiny episode extension, but CBS has enough other options that it ends there. 2.30. Worst Case: The HIMYM audience has no interest whatsoever in this crap. It does a few ticks worse than Partners despite HIMYM even or better in the opening weeks, and CBS has many more replacement options this year. Two and through at a 1.80. Likeliest: This is my pick for first cancellation of the fall, though the fact that it doesn't premiere till week two makes me worried about that. If you're going to try to get into single-cams, CBS, do it with an actual good show. Looks horrible next to HIMYM, and CBS has too many replacements to let it into November sweeps. 1.93. | Occupants | |||
| Partners | ||||
| 2.07 | 1.71 | |||
| Rules of Engagement | ||||
| 2.31 | 2.05 | |||
 | The Voice | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 23 | 3.35 | |||
| Best Case: With DWTS increasingly irrelevant and NBC's lineup more stable as a whole, The Voice is able to nearly replicate last year's fall ratings. 4.35. Worst Case: Did you see how far The Voice fell off in the summer months? That was actual damage to the franchise. (Summer eps not included in the spring average on the right, BTW.) It can't even get back to a 4.0 for the premiere, and low 3's become the norm once blind auditions are done. Down 21% to a 3.48. Likeliest: I don't put a ton of stock in what happened during the summer, because I think the downward momentum in overall viewing snowballed it a little bit. Still, I don't see yet another surge in this show at this point. It posts a healthy, league-average drop kind of season at 3.96. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.49 | ||||
| 4.38 | Occupants | |||
| The Voice Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| megahit | 4.38 | 3.99 | ||
| True | Sitch | The Biggest Loser | ||
| 3.99 | +10% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 2.25 | 2.14 | |
| 3.66 | +20% | The Voice Spr | ||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | 4.48 | 4.31 | ||
Fox note: I'm not Best Case/Worst Case-ing Fox's "late fall" shows, because I have so little confidence in that plan actually coming to pass. I may do another post in late October or early November once that (plus the other inevitable schedule moves) comes to pass.
 | Bones | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 16 | 1.78 | |||
| Best Case: Sleepy Hollow doesn't exactly flop, but it's not so strong that Fox wants to risk putting another unknown before it. So Bones stays put and, with a better fall companion, drops just 5% to a 2.03. Worst Case: Bones is mediocre out of the gate, but Sleepy Hollow does well enough to stay on Monday, so Fox goes through with their "late fall" plan. On Friday, Bones pulls low 1's and ultimately comes to an end. 1.44. Likeliest: Almost Human gets its November Monday premiere, and Bones and Sleepy Hollow are battling it out for the right to join it. I say Bones wins that battle, takes a long hiatus during the winter for Almost Human to play out the string, then returns and ends up airing everything on Monday. Drops 12% to a 1.88. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.10 | ||||
| 2.14 | Occupants | |||
| Bones | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -11% | solid | 2.14 | 2.07 | |
| True | Sitch | |||
| 2.06 | +4% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | |||
| 2.09 | +2% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | ||||
 | Hart of Dixie | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres October 7 | 0.42 | |||
| Best Case: While Beauty and the Beast isn't much of a companion, it's at least a better option than Emily Owens and Cult. So Hart of Dixie holds up OK in its return to Monday, dropping 9% to a 0.50. Worst Case: This is the CW's "surrender night," and the drops just tend to snowball for CW soaps in these situations. Drops nearly 30% to a 0.39 and, with the CW succeeding on several other nights, they don't even bother with a season four. Likeliest: Maybe I'm just feeling burned because I expected this show to hold up very well last year, but last year was this show's big chance to truly establish itself for a deep, One Tree Hill-esque run. It's all downhill from here, and it's probably downhill even faster. I'll say -20% to a 0.44, which quite possibly gets it one more renewal, but this is probably its last chance as a weeknight anchor show. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 0.43 | ||||
| 0.55 | Occupants | |||
| 90210 | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -14% | marginal(CW) | 0.49 | 0.50 | |
| True | Sitch | The Carrie Diaries | ||
| 0.57 | -4% | |||
| Last Pick | Miss | 0.45 | 0.46 | |
| 0.64 | -14% | |||
| 2012-13 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 8:00 | ||||
The Cable:
| Show | Network | Premieres | Avg | y2y |
| Monday Night Football | ESPN | 9/9 | 5.38 | -8% |
| WWE Raw | USA | ongoing | 1.46 | -13% |
The Network to Watch: At least in the opening weeks of the season, it's CBS, where I doubt they will be all that patient with We Are Men. I don't see any of their other new comedies being big problems (at least initially), so this show will have to overachieve just to air more than a handful of episodes.
The Picks: In the "early fall," I'll be watching How I Met Your Mother and Hart of Dixie. I guess I will try We Are Men, but I'm doubtful it'll be a keeper (even if it's a keeper on the schedule).
