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Friday, September 20, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 10:00 6.7 16 -7% 5 29.0 19 23% 16

The Friday 10:00 listings remained intact from 2011-12 to 2012-13 as 20/20, Blue Bloods and Dateline all stayed put. Though the only scripted option Blue Bloods had a pretty bad season, the hour remained relatively healthy year-to-year thanks to great holds from the two newsmagazines. Fall 2013 brings a shake-up as NBC finally gives Grimm a drama teammate in Dracula (though Dateline will stay here in the opening weeks of the season).



The Shows:


Image 20/20 Slot Average
Premieres September 20 1.43
Best Case: It was even last year because it was paired with Shark Tank. This year it'll be paired with Shark Tank for the entire season, and Shark Tank will get stronger. So 20/20 can go at least even again: 1.50.

Worst Case:
It was even last year largely because of election-related interest, and this show will "even out." A double-league average drop to 1.19.

Likeliest:
It'll have Shark Tank all season, and I see Shark Tank dropping a bit less than average, so I'll say this just evens out a bit from any election bump and goes down by the league average to a 1.33.
Slot Orig Avg
1.45
1.45Occupants
20/20
y2y Label
+0% solid(Fri)1.47 1.62
True Sitch
1.60 -9%
Last Pick Miss
1.50 -3%
2012-13 Slot
Friday 10:00




Image Blue Bloods Slot Average
Premieres September 27 1.33
Best Case: Hawaii Five-0 reinvigorates CBS' Friday lineup, pumping a little extra demo interest into Blue Bloods. It really underachieved last year, so the bar is low. +4% to a 1.45.

Worst Case:
Blue Bloods has long been propped up by its pairing with the extremely compatible CSI: NY. Now that it's gone, its decline will be even faster than last year's -19%. Down 25% to a 1.05 and probably dunzo.

Likeliest:
If I'm relatively down on the Friday move for Five-0, then I'm also down on its effect on Blue Bloods, which doesn't seem like a very good fit. I'm giving it another -16% to a 1.18, a little below Five-0. That should put it squarely on the bubble.
Slot Orig Avg
1.40
1.40Occupants
Blue Bloods
y2y Label
-19% solid(Fri)1.40 1.62
True Sitch
1.62 -14%
Last Pick Miss
1.63 -14%
2012-13 Slot
Friday 10:00




Image Dracula (NEW!) Slot Average
1.21
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 25 1.19
Best Case: A genre show to pair with Grimm is a brilliant idea, and NBC is going to get rewarded for it. Dracula is a very familiar name, and premiering near Halloween will lead to a huge (for Friday) premiere. Ultimately it builds a bit on an even-ish Grimm at a 1.60.

Worst Case:
It's a cheap co-production, and usually the viewers tend to pick up on that. Starts off as a decent pairing with Grimm, but the compatibility gets worse and worse. 0.85.

Likeliest:
The trailers suggest that this show is a little more "out there" than Grimm, which has mostly been a pretty simple procedural with fantasy creatures. I say it doesn't quite bomb but goes several notches worse than Grimm's fall numbers, averaging a 1.18. There's a decent chance that this kind of level could get it another 13 eps next season.
Occupants
Dateline Fri
1.25 1.41



The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
HavenSyfy9/130.43-18%



The Network to Watch: NBC. There will be multiple shows cycling through here this season.

The Picks: Blue Bloods, my token CBS procedural. Try out Dracula.

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