The True2/A18-49 averages use the same Power Rankings rule used in the regular season posts: they average the last one third of episodes aired through last Sunday, August 25.
| ABC Summer | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | The Bachelorette | 2.17 | 2.15 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Wipeout | 1.44 | 1.10 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Extreme Weight Loss | 1.41 | 1.20 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Celebrity Wife Swap | 1.36 | 1.10 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Secret Millionaire | 1.34 | 1.10 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Rookie Blue | 1.33 | 1.00 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Whodunnit? | 1.31 | 1.17 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Mistresses | 1.24 | 1.08 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | The Lookout | 1.20 | 0.86 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Motive | 1.13 | 0.83 | 4 | 11 |
ABC has by far the most uncertain hierarchy, with only about a 0.3 to 0.4-point separation (in either raw numbers or in True2) between #2 and #10. True2 is somewhat biased toward the shows later in the week, because overall viewing declines on each day of the week before spiking on Sunday. That means the much-disparaged Wipeout actually owns the #2 spot, and shows like The Lookout and Motive are closer to the pack than it might seem like they should be. Still, I do think The Lookout and Motive are the two least likely returnees of the bunch.
#3, #4 and #6 are all renewed already, #1 will return, and I think The Lookout and Motive are at the bottom of the heap. Beyond that, I just don't know, because I have no idea how many more slots ABC will want to devote to this mediocrity. I wouldn't begrudge them for canning everything else, but I wouldn't be stunned if another two or three get renewed.
I do think Wipeout is the strongest show by the narrowest of margins, but it's also trending most sharply downward (down nearly a third year-to-year), so there's no real upside. A show like Whodunnit? can at least point to its spike to a 1.4 for the finale and say maybe, since it's so new, it can bring that audience back. While I would certainly scoff at the notion that Mistresses is a "winner," it might be a finale spike away from getting a renewal too. It's all just so packed together.
| CBS Summer | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | Under the Dome | 2.84 | 2.47 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Big Brother Thu | 2.80 | 2.23 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Big Brother Sun | 2.60 | 2.33 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Big Brother Wed | 2.58 | 2.13 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | The American Baking Competition | 1.42 | 1.13 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Unforgettable | 1.01 | 1.10 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Brooklyn DA | 0.85 | 0.45 | 2 | 6 |
Baking Competition is the closest thing to a "bubble" show; while I was disappointed with its lack of momentum at the end of the season, it still ended up with a slightly higher 18-49 average than the previous year's occupant Dogs in the City. It's definitely got a better shot than Dogs in the City did, but I wouldn't put it higher than 50/50.
I believe CBS will do away with Unforgettable after this summer, but I will just note that in the new version of True, it looks a lot more favorable. It gets about a 0.3-point bump in the new True because of a new Sunday cable competition adjustment and because it's so incompatible with Big Brother. (More details on these things coming tomorrow or Friday.) Sadly, that still leaves it in the vicinity of a show like Golden Boy from the regular season. I don't think it's quite as dead as it looks here, but I doubt CBS will see a need to bring it back considering they have another show they can point to as a smashing summer scripted success.
| NBC Summer | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | America's Got Talent Tue | 2.79 | 2.45 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | America's Got Talent Wed | 2.65 | 2.23 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | American Ninja Warrior | 1.71 | 1.50 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Hollywood Game Night | 1.46 | 1.17 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Get Out Alive | 1.37 | 1.27 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | The Winner Is | 1.35 | 0.93 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Camp | 0.98 | 0.97 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Save Me | 0.98 | 0.63 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Siberia | 0.86 | 0.67 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Crossing Lines | 0.66 | 0.47 | 3 | 8 |
When Hollywood Game Night scored its renewal, Deadline pegged Get Out Alive's chances at 50/50. (Though they later deleted that from the end of the article.) Seems about right. What might be surprising is how high The Winner Is in True2 considering it couldn't even crack a 1.0 most of the time on Thursday. Some of that is the "bias" toward shows later in the week, but it also usually had more competition and a one-point worse lead-in. I still think the large raw numbers difference means NBC would absolutely renew GOA first of the two, but it was a bit of an eye-opener.
If any scripted show returns, it'll be Camp, but because of its Got Talent lead-in it doesn't have much of an advantage in True2 over shows like Siberia or even the burn-off Save Me. I'd do away with all of them.
| Fox Summer | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | MasterChef | 2.78 | 2.27 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Hell's Kitchen | 2.75 | 2.09 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | So You Think You Can Dance | 1.62 | 1.36 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Does Someone Have to Go? | 1.03 | 0.85 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | The Goodwin Games | 0.86 | 0.57 | 3 | 7 |
The only drama here is with So You Think You Can Dance, which staved off some renewal uncertainty last year and is down another 19% so far this year. The one thing you might think it has going for it is how little summer stuff Fox has. With Hell's Kitchen called into duty early and ending early, and with Hotel Hell remaining on the bench, it has often felt like Fox is really phoning in the summer, and SYTYCD is certainly doing a lot better than all those repeats of the Tuesday comedies. But Fox should have more going for them in 2014 as 24 returns to the airwaves. This will just come down to how much original real estate Fox wants to have. They talked a big game about year-round programming at press tour, so maybe SYTYCD returns to fill out the sked.
| CW Summer | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | Whose Line Is It Anyway? | 1.05 | 0.83 | 3 | 8 |
| 2 | America's Next Top Model | 0.56 | 0.35 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Oh Sit! | 0.36 | 0.30 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Capture | 0.33 | 0.35 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Perfect Score | 0.33 | 0.20 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Breaking Pointe | 0.26 | 0.20 | 2 | 5 |
Has Whose Line? so changed the game that the CW raises its summer expectations beyond the #3 to #6 tier, or will something return out of that low-rated group? If the CDub renewed Oh Sit! and Breaking Pointe last year, I'd guess they'll take a flier on one of those shows. I'm pretty sure it's not going to be Breaking Pointe, but True2 actually thinks the other three shows, all in vastly different situations, are about equivalent. 0.3 leading off Monday = 0.3/0.4 with a great lead-in on Tuesday = 0.2 leading off Friday. Perfect Score is probably the long shot after it got downgraded from its Tuesday slot so quickly, but I could see either Oh Sit! or Capture maybe getting a reprieve. Oh Sit! has the "bird in the hand" advantage; we know it can lead off a night and at least do a little better than lower-tier repeats. Capture has the best raw numbers, and it may have the best shot if it can keeping hanging 0.4's.
