Week-by-week:
| Week | Ending | TPUT | y2y | bc | y2y | LeAv | y2y |
| 41 | 7/7/2013 | 26.8 | -3% | 3.8 | -9% | 1.28 | -15% |
| 42 | 7/14/2013 | 28.5 | -2% | 4.2 | -11% | 1.46 | -1% |
| 43 | 7/21/2013 | 28.3 | -6% | 4.4 | -9% | 1.44 | -15% |
| 44 | 7/28/2013 | 28.2 | -9% | 4.4 | -50% | 1.48 | -10% |
| 45 | 8/4/2013 | 28.6 | -12% | 4.6 | -62% | 1.43 | +36% |
| 46 | 8/11/2013 | 29.0 | -9% | 4.2 | -58% | 1.49 | +35% |
Summer-to-date:
| Week | Ending | TPUTy2d | y2dy2y | bcy2d | y2dy2y | LAy2d | y2dy2y |
| 41 | 7/7/2013 | 28.8 | -2% | 5.1 | -3% | 1.47 | -8% |
| 42 | 7/14/2013 | 28.8 | -2% | 5.0 | -4% | 1.47 | -7% |
| 43 | 7/21/2013 | 28.7 | -2% | 4.9 | -5% | 1.47 | -8% |
| 44 | 7/28/2013 | 28.7 | -3% | 4.9 | -13% | 1.47 | -9% |
| 45 | 8/4/2013 | 28.7 | -4% | 4.8 | -22% | 1.46 | -7% |
| 46 | 8/11/2013 | 28.7 | -5% | 4.8 | -27% | 1.47 | -6% |
We'll do one more of these, but it should be pretty clear from looking at weeks 44-46 that last year's Olympics derailed any real "fairness" in these year-to-year comparisons for broadcast viewing. The combined broadcasters did well less than half of their year-ago numbers during the two full vs.-Olympic weeks (45 & 46). NBC was down about 85% over that period, Fox was about even, and ABC, CBS and the CDub were all up 20%+, but the NBC decline kind of overwhelms everything.
My whole concept of "league average" is particularly helpful here as it's certainly closer to a "fairer" comparison across these two years. But even it is far from perfect; the entertainment programs artificially benefited a bit from the lack of Olympic competition. On a week-by-week basis, the averages were way up because most programs went on a hiatus during the Olympics last year, but the summer-to-date ones are more important here.
Some time in the next year I will probably come up with a "hit for summer" label in A18-49+. I'll want to look at more than just this one summer, but for now the summer league average is almost exactly 70% of the regular season one.
Click to expand for more on the "climate" numbers used herein.
TPUT - This is an ESTIMATED average of how many people are watching TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
- I derive these numbers by adding up all the ratings and dividing by all the shares in each of the 42 half-hours each week. That means there is some error relative to the numbers Nielsen actually releases. Sadly we don't regularly have access to those. I always advise not to rely heavily on these numbers for any one show in any one week, but the hope is that the error is minimized across a 42-timeslot sample every week.
- I include the Old Methodology adjustment, which makes the number more like a measurement of how many people watch primetime programming Live + SD, rather than a measurement of how many people watch any TV (including old DVR stuff) from 8:00 to 11:00. This makes the number perhaps less intuitive in a vacuum, but it's pretty much a wash when making week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons, which is what we're really interested in.
- This does NOT include the 10:00 adjustment used in the True2 calculation which attempts to account for Fox/CW programming and stronger cable. Again, that perhaps hurts the number in a vacuum, because the 10:00 numbers being used only include three networks, so I'm averaging timeslots that are somewhat apples-to-oranges. But again, it's a wash when making comparisons because I treat it that way all the time. It would not really change week-to-week or year-to-year comparisons, and that's what I mostly care about.
- Another important note here is that these numbers include the preliminary averages for "sustaining" programming like presidential debates and commercial-free benefit concerts whose numbers are typically omitted from traditional Nielsen averages. I might eventually omit these from this particular calculation, but they're needed on my spreadsheets to 1) make PUT calculations in those timeslots and 2) create a competition number for the entertainment shows that air against them.
Note: Beginning with week 9, all numbers compare against the next numbered week in the 2011-12 season. So week 9 compares against week 10 of 2011-12, etc. This was done to make the comparisons more calendar-friendly. See here for more on that.
