So this week, I've got a couple posts looking back on the predictions. This is all probably not very good for my credibility, but I'm hoping that holding myself to these numbers will both motivate me to improve as well as give me some pointers on how to improve.
We'll start with all the many Best Case/Worst Case predictions generated over the course of the season. I tried to weed out burn-off numbers that would've deflated the averages, though I may not have gotten all of them. I'll start with some highlights and lowlights of the BC/WC seasons, and then I'll look at some of the larger statistics.
Best Picks:
| Show | Best | Worst | Likeliest | Actual | %Diff |
| Community | 1.40 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.24 | -0% |
| Grey's Anatomy | 3.50 | 2.74 | 3.10 | 3.10 | -0% |
| Dancing with the Stars Mon Spring | 2.71 | 2.05 | 2.30 | 2.29 | -0% |
| How to Live | 2.45 | 1.45 | 1.90 | 1.91 | +0% |
| Survivor Spring | 2.69 | 2.41 | 2.55 | 2.56 | +1% |
| CSI: NY | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.41 | +1% |
| The Amazing Race Spring | 2.56 | 2.23 | 2.33 | 2.35 | +1% |
| The Big Bang Theory | 5.70 | 4.80 | 5.20 | 5.25 | +1% |
| Last Resort | 2.50 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.38 | -2% |
| Castle | 2.24 | 1.85 | 2.08 | 2.04 | -2% |
| Sports: Sunday Night Football | 8.78 | 7.52 | 8.00 | 8.16 | +2% |
| Family Guy | 2.94 | 2.58 | 2.76 | 2.70 | -2% |
| Dateline Fri | 1.42 | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.29 | -2% |
| Bones | 2.22 | 1.91 | 2.09 | 2.14 | +2% |
These are all the picks within 2% of the mark, with another 11 within 3%. Community and Grey's Anatomy were my two picks nailed to the hundredth. For some reason I have been the Grey's Whisperer, as I was just 0.07 off in 2011 and just 0.01 off in 2010.
The best picks of this bunch include TBBT and Sunday Night Football, both shows with huge numbers and somewhat unpredictable outcomes that I was very close to nailing; TBBT continued its improbable raw numbers growth, but only to a small extent, while SNF finally dropped after years of raw growth. One of my best new show picks was Last Resort, one of the few shows I had a really strong opinion on coming into the season. And credit to me for making a strong adjustment on the late spring reality shows; was very close on Survivor, The Amazing Race and DWTS.
Worst Picks to the Negative:
| Show | Best | Worst | Likeliest | Actual | %Diff |
| The Mindy Project | 3.10 | 2.00 | 2.82 | 1.56 | -45% |
| The Mob Doctor | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.90 | -40% |
| Smash | 1.84 | 1.27 | 1.50 | 0.94 | -37% |
| Vegas | 3.08 | 2.00 | 2.60 | 1.68 | -35% |
| Suburgatory | 3.64 | 2.71 | 3.25 | 2.14 | -34% |
| 90210 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.37 | -33% |
| The Job | 1.65 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.80 | -33% |
| Red Widow | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.65 | 1.10 | -33% |
| The New Normal | 2.70 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 1.55 | -32% |
| Made in Jersey | 1.62 | 1.30 | 1.39 | 0.95 | -32% |
| Do No Harm | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 0.80 | -30% |
These are all the shows that did at least 30% worse than expected. Not surprisingly, most of these are new shows, which are so much more difficult to gauge because there is no raw data whatsoever going in. For me, the toughest part of gauging new shows is that even if you get the end result right, it's tough to nail the extent; I thought shows like The Mob Doctor, Do No Harm and even returnees like Smash and 90210 were going to fail, and they did fail, it's just the numbers were a lot more ugly. I've observed this difficulty even in looking at the ad rates. Advertising rates suggest almost nothing gets pegged as a total meltdown out of the gate, and yet many of those exist every year. Maybe the lesson of Last Resort and of these shows is that I should have even stronger opinions about the shows I'm not high on.
Still, there were several big whiffs even in terms of outcome. I thought The Mindy Project and Vegas would be legit successes, and I really thought Suburgatory would benefit from the Modern Family lead-in.
Worst Picks to the Positive:
| Show | Best | Worst | Likeliest | Actual | %Diff |
| Chicago Fire | 2.00 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 1.83 | +30% |
| The Voice Tue Fall | 3.90 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 4.08 | +27% |
| Scandal | 2.48 | 1.60 | 2.01 | 2.50 | +24% |
| Family Tools | 1.35 | 0.65 | 0.90 | 1.12 | +24% |
| America's Next Top Model Fall | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.51 | +24% |
| The Biggest Loser Spring | 2.40 | 1.64 | 1.90 | 2.32 | +22% |
| The Bachelor Spring | 2.57 | 2.03 | 2.26 | 2.75 | +22% |
| The Voice Mon Fall | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.66 | 4.38 | +20% |
| The Taste | 1.91 | 1.15 | 1.35 | 1.61 | +19% |
| The Following | 2.75 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 2.63 | +14% |
| Golden Boy | 2.00 | 1.05 | 1.25 | 1.42 | +13% |
| Revolution | 3.30 | 1.60 | 2.27 | 2.57 | +13% |
| The Vampire Diaries | 1.19 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 1.24 | +12% |
| Supernatural | 0.95 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.92 | +10% |
| Grimm | 1.61 | 1.30 | 1.45 | 1.59 | +10% |
| Rock Center | 1.16 | 0.75 | 0.93 | 1.02 | +10% |
These are all the shows that did at least 10% better than expected. Once again, there's a disproportionate volume of new shows, with Chicago Fire the biggest overachiever. This is a fun way to try to get a gauge on who had the "best" season on TV. Scandal is certainly a show many would agree is in contention for that title.
Worst Returning Show Picks:
| Show | Best | Worst | Likeliest | Actual | %Diff |
| Smash | 1.84 | 1.27 | 1.50 | 0.94 | -37% |
| Suburgatory | 3.64 | 2.71 | 3.25 | 2.14 | -34% |
| 90210 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.37 | -33% |
| New Girl | 3.71 | 2.58 | 3.23 | 2.30 | -29% |
| Private Practice | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.84 | 1.33 | -28% |
| The Voice Tue Fall | 3.90 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 4.08 | +27% |
| Apartment 23 | 1.90 | 1.40 | 1.56 | 1.16 | -26% |
| Happy Endings | 2.30 | 1.49 | 1.76 | 1.33 | -24% |
| Scandal | 2.48 | 1.60 | 2.01 | 2.50 | +24% |
| America's Next Top Model Fall | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.51 | +24% |
| The Mentalist | 2.48 | 1.96 | 2.25 | 1.72 | -23% |
| Touch | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.70 | -22% |
| Dancing with the Stars Mon Fall | 3.12 | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.26 | -22% |
| The Biggest Loser Spring | 2.40 | 1.64 | 1.90 | 2.32 | +22% |
| The Bachelor Spring | 2.57 | 2.03 | 2.26 | 2.75 | +22% |
Weeding out the always highly unpredictable new shows, here were the biggest whiffs by percentage. It was a season marked by some very disappointing sophomore seasons, most notably Suburgatory and New Girl, but also 2 Broke Girls which was just off the list. I expected much more out of these those shows, but the few actual "sophomore bounces" were elsewhere (Scandal and to a lesser extent Grimm and Person of Interest).
Big Picture Stats:
88 of 126 "Likeliest" picks this season were too low (70%), 36 were too high, and two were nailed to the hundredth.
The median miss size (in other words, the absolute value of the percent difference) was 13%.
The median miss (in other words, lining up all of the %Diffs from +30% to -48%) was -9%.
In case it is not yet obvious, I was pretty consistently too optimistic this season. It seems almost everyone who predicts ratings suffers from that, but it should be a problem I can lessen in future seasons with a more developed sense about the collective entertainment average decline.
It is worth noting, in my defense, that even a more perfect process probably would've been too optimistic, since this year saw a larger collective decline than usual. You could argue the league average was up to 5% lower than expected, which makes up over half of that median -9% miss. Adding 5% to every show's ratings would change the too low/too high balance to 72 too low (57%) and 54 too high.
But even those "adjusted" numbers would've been too optimistic, and honestly the adjustment was probably too much. The league average was probably really only about 3% lower than expected. Bottom line: I should have been more pessimistic.
It's hard to know how good of a job I actually did since there aren't many other people out there doing this exact thing. I suppose I could create some kind of "control group" where I just predict a 10% drop for everything and compare my picks with that. Maybe I'll do that at some point! But mostly, my goal for 2013-14 is to do better than in 2012-13.
The most distressing stat to me was the number of shows that went below the "Worst Case" pick. A whooping 44 picks did that, or 35% of the total picks!!! (Plus another five went above the "Best Case.") And that wasn't even all about having tons of horrendous picks. About a third of those 44 were on picks were the Likeliest missed by 15% or less. There was something like 48 Hours, which averaged a 1.00, just 9% off my 1.10 pick, but my BC/WC range was 1.15 to 1.04. Ultimately, I probably just shouldn't get so precise with the outer ranges. Even though 48 Hours and the other newsmagazine-type shows usually have fairly predictable ratings, I can't imagine there's ever a show where the best case and the worst case are just 0.11 points apart.
Here's a link to the full list of predictions/results.
