NBC True Power Rankings, May 2013

It's time for this season's final edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and excluding some inflationary season/series finales that aren't that relevant). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through April 28.

The best way to describe the two-week upfront preview is that these Power Rankings are the "SHOW-centric" portion. The Power Rankings are largely about discussing the merits of renewing and/or moving marginal and just-above-marginal shows. Next week's Upfront Questions will be more the SCHEDULE-centric portion. These things do overlap sometimes, but that's a general guideline.

Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The NBC Thursday Old Guard
1	The Office	2.24	1.90	7	20
2	Parks and Recreation	1.89	1.53	7	21
3	30 Rock	1.45	1.33	4	11

NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
Le Sigh.
4	Community	1.41	1.13	4	11
5	Up All Night	1.37	1.10	4	11
6	Guys with Kids	1.34	1.12	6	17
7	Whitney	1.31	1.14	5	15
8	Go On	1.25	1.20	7	21
9	The New Normal	1.15	1.13	8	22

I made my opinion pretty clear on these second-tier shows last time: I don't think any of them really deserve to be renewed, but I don't drastically favor or discount any of them. I'd put them all at "likely cancellation," though I might bump Community or Go On up to "toss-up." As has become a yearly tradition, good old Community is worming its way up to the top of the bubble rankings.

It was encouraging to see in the latest Pilot Panic that NBC is considering being very liberal with the comedy axe. They claim it's because their pilots are amahhhh-zing, but who knows about that? They thought Go On, The New Normal and Animal Practice were their new comedy beachheads. More likely, they just realize what's pretty evident: it would be hard to do much worse than this crop with replacement new shows, and there's a lot more upside.

However, some more Fun With Deadline: I practically cringed at this article, where The New Normal was "looking hopeful after getting a boost from the return of The Voice." And even everyone's favorite bear followed suit: "With its recent ratings gains airing after The Voice, it's cancellation is not nearly as certain as 1600 Penn or Guys With Kids." Are you people KIDDING me with this? What in tarnation did you think was going to happen when you increased its lead-in by nearly four ratings points? Just can't imagine that the networks are actually stupid enough to operate like this.

If you want to go this route, be more honest about the thought process: "They like it, so they gave it a better lead-in, so its ratings artificially increased." The real takeaway is that they like it, not that the show actually got stronger. I actually think its late-season ratings probably upheld the notion that it's the weakest of the bubble shows. But it's still close enough that "they like it" could be the difference and it wouldn't be totally incomprehensible.

One other tidbit from the Deadline article: "There has been speculation that, like last year, NBC may opt to keep one multi-camera comedy for next season, with Guys [With Kids] having a slight edge." Who knows if that's actually true, but it wouldn't surprise me as much as it surprises some others. It's too early for syndication to be a huge consideration for either this or Whitney, there's effectively no ratings difference, and Jimmy Fallon politics may play a role.

NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Dunzo
10	1600 Penn	1.13	0.84	5	13
11	Animal Practice	1.12	1.15	2	5

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NBC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Fab... Four, Plus Revolution
1	Law and Order: SVU	1.99	1.64	7	19
2	Grimm	1.99	1.42	6	18
3	Chicago Fire	1.96	1.81	7	20
4	Parenthood	1.95	1.86	5	14
5	Revolution	1.85	2.38	5	14

We played the Likelihood of a Move game with the second-tier CBS dramas. It's also worth playing with the first-tier NBC dramas, none of whom are quite strong enough to have real scheduling certainty:

Law and Order: SVU: With the recent collapse of Hannibal, I'm willing to re-heat my suggestion from March that NBC should sked this show in the long-troubled Thursday 10/9c hour. The first two hours of Thursday night are so utterly up in the air that I wouldn't want to compound the potential problem by putting an unknown quantity at the end of the night. And as I've said, the SVU repeats in the hour prior to Hannibal's premiere were doing as well as the normal Wednesday repeats, and sometimes even better. In terms of actual likelihood, I have to think there's a decent chance NBC keeps using it to take the hit in its very difficult Wednesday hour, perhaps protecting Chicago Fire in the first somewhat competent Wednesday lineup they've had in a long time. 45% chance of a move.

Chicago Fire: As I said right after the fab five renewal, I actually think Chicago Fire may be the most likely show to stay put. There's a contingent that really wants to see what this show could do consistently after The Voice, but I just don't think NBC is in a position to get too greedy with their known quantities right now. Can't totally discount the possibility, but this is a rare NBC show to get a pulse on Wednesday; I'd keep it there. 25% chance.

Grimm: So where is Grimm moving from in this game? We'll say its usual Friday 9/8c slot. It's after The Voice for the next month, but the only way I'd consider keeping it that way is if it shows breakout potential along the lines of House. Based on Tuesday's results, it doesn't look like that's happening. There are other non-Friday possibilities, namely the plagued Thursday 10/9c slot or somewhere on Wednesday. I've always secretly kind of fancied the idea of hammocking wild-card Revolution between two known properties on Wednesday (Grimm at 8 and ChiFi at 10), but recent developments are leaving me less sure. This feels like another one of those shows whose scheduling will be more about other shows' scheduling than its own merits. I'll just say 40% chance it leaves Friday. Shrug.

Parenthood: Armed with a 22-episode renewal, Parenthood should remain as a reliable Tuesday 10/9c player. I could see it going to Wednesday or Thursday, but I don't see a compelling reason to move it right now as it's not really a "launch-pad." 30% chance it moves.

Revolution: So here's the big wild card. Would Revolution hold up elsewhere? In the fall I thought the show was a success that went beyond "Voice lead-out," as seen in the extreme amount of DVR interest. I'm certainly much less sure of that position based on spring ratings. But I still think the show looks more likely to hold onto something reasonable in another slot than Smash was last year, if only because of the difference in subject matter. I questioned the compatibility of the two right after last year's upfront, after all.

Still, many have said NBC will regret giving Revolution 22 episodes a year from now, and it's pretty easy to see that possibility. I'm increasingly confident NBC really doesn't want to take the 22 eps and make a Happy Endings-style gamble, where the show is exposed as a fraud on day one and suddenly you have 21 more hours ahead. They could always trim the order, but I doubt they want to put themselves in that position. While I think a new show in the Monday slot would be better for the future of the network, keeping Revolution on Monday would probably be better for the "not having to light tens of millions of dollars on fire." That matters. I'm giving it a 50% chance to move, but a large portion of that 50% involves a move to the other post-Voice slot on Tuesday.

NBC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Midseason Launch!
6	Hannibal	1.42	1.20	2	4
7	Deception	1.12	1.15	4	11
8	Do No Harm	0.91	0.70	1	2
9	Smash	0.61	0.43	4	12

The Hannibal run has been very swingy. I gave it about a 40% shot at renewal after its 1.6 premiere, thought that shot up to like 60% after it got a 1.7 in week two, dropped back to maybe 40% after the drop to 1.4, and now I only have it at about 20% after last week's 1.0. And the 20% is pretty much based on the 1.0 being an outlier and a bounce-back coming in future weeks. Can't really count out another upswing, since the week-to-week moves have been a bit unbelievably drastic, but enough of an upswing now seems pretty unlikely.

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NBC Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	The Voice Mon Spring	4.84	5.05	2	5
2	The Voice Tue Spring	4.60	4.35	2	5
3	The Voice Mon Fall	3.50	4.00	5	14
4	The Voice Tue Fall	3.36	3.64	5	15
5	The Biggest Loser	2.14	2.13	4	11
6	Celebrity Apprentice	1.69	1.67	3	9
7	Take It All	1.57	1.30	2	6
8	Dateline Fri	1.53	1.30	10	28
9	Off Their Rockers	1.39	1.14	5	15
10	Rock Center	1.21	0.94	10	28
11	Dateline Sun	1.11	1.20	2	5
12	Fashion Star	0.98	0.70	3	7
13	Ready for Love	0.80	1.10	1	3

The real interest on the NBC unscripted front next season is how they schedule around the Winter Olympics, which will fall from February 7 to 23. That's right smack in the middle of what would've been The Biggest Loser's season if scheduled like last year (which I think was a sound strategy). In theory, they could pretty much run The Voice on the same pattern as last year, or even start it earlier. The Biggest Loser is more questionable.

You could air it in the fall, simultaneous with The Voice, or in the spring, simultaneous with The Voice, or you could start it right after the Olympics and then air The Voice in the same slot, but extremely late. (As in, late April to May.) But any of those plans would probably set up NBC for an extraordinarily rough January, perhaps even worse than their January 2013. Maybe they will go the America's Got Talent route and split the season around the Olympics? I'm not sure there's really any better choice.