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Friday, May 3, 2013

Fox True Power Rankings, May 2013


It's time for this season's final edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and excluding some inflationary season/series finales that aren't that relevant). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through April 28.

The best way to describe the two-week upfront preview is that these Power Rankings are the "SHOW-centric" portion. The Power Rankings are largely about discussing the merits of renewing and/or moving marginal and just-above-marginal shows. Next week's Upfront Questions will be more the SCHEDULE-centric portion. These things do overlap sometimes, but that's a general guideline.

Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Anchors
1New Girl2.302.30822
2Family Guy2.252.53719
3The Simpsons1.932.08618

Hope you enjoyed the three Power Rankings over the last two days, because the two today are going to be super-short... thanks early renewals.

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Renewed
4American Dad!1.701.93617
5Bob's Burgers1.551.70721
6Raising Hope1.551.49721
7The Mindy Project1.521.51721

Last time, I advocated keeping The Mindy Project after New Girl because it seemed the show had a minor amount of momentum. It's squandered some of that momentum since then, so now I think it's more of a "comes down to development" situation. If there's a really solid pairing out of the new crop, they could go that route. But I wouldn't throw a new show there just to do it, partly because Mindy would probably be hopeless in any other slot. (Maybe that's what everyone means when they say it never should've been renewed...)

I'd be more willing to give Raising Hope a somewhere like a Friday. That may be Fox's most likely scripted show to end up on the night.

Fox ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo?
8The Cleveland Show1.491.41719
9Ben and Kate1.211.20513




Fox DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Renewals
1The Following2.412.24514
2Bones2.092.08823
3Glee1.952.06720

I'd leave both The Following and Bones alone next year. They were well-scheduled on a night that's drama-light but competition-heavy overall.

The two-season renewal for Glee was rather surprising to me. While it might now be a bit of a pipe dream, I still think the best thing Fox can do with the show is have it share the Monday 9/8c hour with The Following. If it must have a full-season order, it could run repeat-free for 18 weeks or so, breaking only for two weeks at the end of December, and maybe some two-hour editions could mix in to get to a full 22-episode season. Rinse and repeat in 2014-15 if it's still strong enough, or move it to Friday if not. This seems the best way to avoid getting badly burdened by the show.

While I'm not sure that post-X Factor is all that desirable a slot for a new show anymore, what I am fairly sure of is that going against Grey's is really bad for Glee. If all things are about equal for a new show, stick Glee in the slot that's better for Glee.

There is still a groundswell for returning Glee to Tuesday at 8. I believe Glee is pretty much all downside from here and I wouldn't want it to bring New Girl with it. But it can't do as poorly as Ben and Kate did.

Fox DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
4Fringe1.260.95411
5Touch0.920.60411
6The Mob Doctor0.890.64513




Fox UnscriptedTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
1American Idol Wed3.533.30616
2American Idol Thu3.592.94515
3The X Factor Wed2.692.70514
4The X Factor Thu2.662.60412
5Hell's Kitchen2.312.0038
6Kitchen Nightmares1.431.14514
7Mobbed1.401.2025
8Cops1.270.92514

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