The best way to describe the two-week upfront preview is that these Power Rankings are the "SHOW-centric" portion. The Power Rankings are largely about discussing the merits of renewing and/or moving marginal and just-above-marginal shows. Next week's Upfront Questions will be more the SCHEDULE-centric portion. These things do overlap sometimes, but that's a general guideline.
Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| The CW | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Big Three | |||||
| 1 | The Vampire Diaries | 1.41 | 1.13 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Arrow | 1.15 | 0.97 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Supernatural | 1.02 | 0.94 | 7 | 20 |
No change here. The only debate is whether to break up Arrow and Supernatural, which I have already gone over. I'd do it, but it's close enough for me that it is pretty much a matter of personal taste.
| The CW | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Medium Three | |||||
| 4 | Hart of Dixie | 0.62 | 0.54 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | America's Next Top Model | 0.55 | 0.50 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Beauty and the Beast | 0.52 | 0.54 | 7 | 19 |
Perhaps I should put Top Model in the green, since it seems like it might end up airing largely in the regular season again.
I was intrigued by one of the premises in this interesting breakdown of the Beauty and the Beast situation from a few weeks back: would Beauty and the Beast do the same (or worse?!) than The Carrie Diaries in the same slot? He said yes, but I don't think I agree. As you can see from the True2 averages, I think BatB would do about a full tenth better in Carrie's spot; in other words, while Carrie had 0.4's with the occasional 0.3, BatB would have 0.4's to 0.5's. Still not good, but I have my doubts it'd be as bad.
How does this differ from the Secret Circle vs. Hart of Dixie smackdown last year? Well, that raw numbers gap was smaller; even in February, it was TSC at about a 0.7 vs. Hart at about a 0.6, and that's not even counting the end of last season when the gap disappeared entirely. Also, Carrie had the "local programming advantage," a lead-in usually within half a point of TVD's numbers, while Hart had to lead out of a very weak primetime program (Gossip Girl).
It's all a roundabout way of saying that I think the CDub made the right choice both times. But Beauty and the Beast will certainly be vying for one of the "last" spots on the schedule.
| The CW | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Pending Two | |||||
| 8 | Nikita | 0.45 | 0.33 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | The Carrie Diaries | 0.42 | 0.38 | 5 | 13 |
I don't by any means think there's a three smiley-face difference between these shows. In fact, I'd strongly consider axing both. But I do think Nikita has the edge, for a few reasons:
1) The CW loves handing out "proper endings," and since 90210 was too egregious-rated to get the usual short final season, Nikita seems a very good candidate for that.
2) "Bird in the hand." Might Carrie have dropped to 0.2 on a Friday?!?!?!
3) Syndication, I guess? Still not sure who's beating down the door to air a spy drama that gets a 0.3 in originals for five nights a week... but if it is a thing, it favors Nikita.
I don't totally discount Deadline being onto something with The Carrie Diaries in this "renew everything" article because it does have the Hart of Dixie compatibility and a much more favorable young demo makeup than Nikita, but it's still probably a cancel. Two smileys is about right.
| The CW | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Dunzo | |||||
| 7 | Gossip Girl | 0.47 | 0.43 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Emily Owens M.D. | 0.37 | 0.36 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | 90210 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Cult | 0.23 | 0.17 | 3 | 7 |
