The best way to describe the two-week upfront preview is that these Power Rankings are the "SHOW-centric" portion. The Power Rankings are largely about discussing the merits of renewing and/or moving marginal and just-above-marginal shows. Next week's Upfront Questions will be more the SCHEDULE-centric portion. These things do overlap sometimes, but that's a general guideline.
Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| CBS Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Fab Five | |||||
| 1 | The Big Bang Theory | 6.01 | 5.33 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Two and a Half Men | 3.33 | 3.67 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | How I Met Your Mother | 3.16 | 3.19 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | 2 Broke Girls | 2.92 | 3.19 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Mike and Molly | 2.51 | 2.76 | 7 | 19 |
I'll (briefly) revisit the "to expand or not to expand" question next week in Upfront Questions. Spoiler alert: I still have pretty much the same opinion, which is that it'll come down to development.
Just to spice it up a bit I'll visit this kind of interesting scenario I've seen floated: If CBS does not expand, could they hold Mike and Molly for midseason? In a True2 sense, it'd be a mistake, as I feel Mike and Molly is behind only three CBS dramas (and about on par with NCIS: LA, their fourth-strongest). But given that they have to stay at three in this little fantasy scenario, I could actually see it happening. If they have two new shows that they feel are solid bets to be bigger than Mike and Molly, and that's not impossible given some of the names in their comedy pilots, it might actually be a good call. Where would M&M end up if those shows actually succeed? That is a really good question.
| CBS Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Red-Headed Stepchild | |||||
| 6 | Rules of Engagement | 2.01 | 2.05 | 4 | 10 |
The usual Rules of Engagement narrative is: "It's the utility player that always finds a way to get renewed!" Last year, though, it was not "finding a way" unless you count "getting really good ratings." I thought it was stronger than pretty much the whole drama second tier! This year, it's a different beast. I've got it power-ranked only around the bottom of the drama second-tier. In other words, I would still say it's "worthy," but it's not nearly as cut and dry as last year. For a show that's generally been more renewal-worthy than people think, will it scrape by this time when it's not quite as renewal-worthy? Very doubtful, but... "it always finds a way to get renewed!" so stay tuned.
| CBS Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Dunzo | |||||
| 7 | Partners | 1.47 | 1.95 | 2 | 6 |
| CBS Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Elite | |||||
| 1 | NCIS | 3.31 | 3.17 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Criminal Minds | 3.02 | 2.84 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Person of Interest | 2.79 | 2.83 | 7 | 20 |
We already talked, "Whither Mike and Molly if there's no expansion?" So let's talk, "Whither Person of Interest if there is one?" I believe there are only two realistic options: Thursday 10/9c or somewhere on Tuesday. It's too high-priority for Friday or Sunday, and I believe the Wednesday 8/7c slot is now tied up. (More on that later.)
The Thursday slot is where it was "tested" during CBS' experimental repeats week. The Person of Interest vs. Scandal duel in that slot would be interesting. If they still have a lot of belief in the show, NCIS/Person of Interest could have some real potential on drama-light Tuesday. Tuesday 10/9c is also possible. In case it's not clear yet, I don't have a strong opinion on this one.
| CBS Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Second Tier | |||||
| 4 | NCIS: Los Angeles | 2.47 | 2.76 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Elementary | 2.35 | 2.21 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | CSI | 2.20 | 2.19 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hawaii Five-0 | 1.94 | 2.10 | 7 | 20 |
All of these shows might move. Here is my take on the likelihood for each:
NCIS: Los Angeles: Clearly CBS hasn't had much confidence in this show historically, and the 1.3 repeat when leading off the night can't have instilled much more. If anything will ever get CBS to break up this pairing, it'd be another NCIS spin-off. But I'm not so sure that should/will even get picked up, since there seems to be a lot of negative reception around it. And even then I'm paranoid about CBS doing the dreaded NCIS/LA/Red lineup anyway. I think there's only a 45% chance it goes elsewhere.
Elementary: I've seen some suggestions that Elementary will get thrown into the Friday/Sunday fray. Not seeing it. The last show CBS put on Friday this early into a weeknight run without it being an effective burn-off was Close to Home. Maybe Elementary has been a disappointment, but it's still strong enough to warrant at least one more year in a good slot, especially since there are other, older candidates for the downgrade. Will that good slot be Thursday 10/9c? That answer is likely tied up in what happens with the Thursday comedies and Person of Interest. If no expansion, Elementary likely stays, and even if there is one, it could be PoI and not Elementary that's shipped off the night. So I'm putting this one at a 55% chance.
CSI: I get the sense that many consider this a virtual lock to stay put, because CBS will be making moves elsewhere and Wednesday is an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" situation in general. Still, CSI has had a somewhat soft season, and I think it's the best-suited of these four to make a decent transition to Friday. And Criminal Minds is a pretty strong lead-in to keep using on a show in its second decade. While I would strongly consider it, I'm guessing CBS makes enough shake-ups elsewhere to choose Wednesday stability for one more year. 25% chance of a move.
Hawaii Five-0: The most underwhelming of these four shows is also almost certainly the most likely to move. It seems pretty clear to me that CBS has been eying this show for Friday; it aired a repeat there right after CBS reneged on the Golden Boy move to Friday, and it was slated for another one before everything got pre-empted by the Boston bombings coverage. CBS is likely to perform at least a bit of a shake-up on Monday, and Five-0 has been one of the night's worst offenders. 85% chance.
| CBS Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Third Tier | |||||
| 8 | Blue Bloods | 1.85 | 1.39 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | CSI: NY | 1.75 | 1.48 | 6 | 16 |
| 10 | The Mentalist | 1.61 | 1.56 | 7 | 21 |
| 12 | The Good Wife | 1.38 | 1.58 | 8 | 22 |
The funny thing about this group is that I actually think these shows are more attached to specific timeslots than dramas 3 through 7, which is usually not the case with marginal renewals. Blue Bloods is pretty much locked into Friday at 10, barring the outside possibility that it might go to 9:00 and "launch" something. (And it's not big enough for that, in my opinion.)
And I have the somewhat sad feeling that the early renewals for marginal-rated The Good Wife and The Mentalist mean CBS is planning on phoning in Sunday again with perhaps the exact same lineup. It's not a terrible decision in the face of overruns, primetime NFL and the steadily growing crowd of cable options, but it is still rather underwhelming on a network where the real estate is so precious. I could be wrong about this, but it's just the feel I got after seeing the quick Mentalist renewal.
| CBS Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Dunzo | |||||
| 11 | Golden Boy | 1.46 | 1.43 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Vegas | 1.18 | 1.16 | 7 | 19 |
| 14 | Made in Jersey | 0.57 | 0.37 | 3 | 8 |
I almost put Golden Boy in the third tier because it out-Trues The Good Wife, but then I remembered that is probably solely due to TGW's True score being too low because it's Sunday. Golden Boy is dunzo.
| CBS Unscripted | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | Survivor Spring | 2.98 | 2.68 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Survivor Fall | 2.62 | 2.66 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Undercover Boss | 2.01 | 1.56 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | The Amazing Race Spring | 2.00 | 2.35 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | The Amazing Race Fall | 1.97 | 2.53 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | 60 Minutes | 1.60 | 1.86 | 9 | 27 |
| 7 | 48 Hours | 1.29 | 0.97 | 9 | 25 |
| 8 | The Job | 0.85 | 0.70 | 1 | 2 |
The horrible spring premiere number from Survivor had many a CBS drama advocate looking at the Wednesday 8/7c slot and licking their chops. However, the show's great recovery has pretty much crushed that. I can still see some of the inherent juiciness, since there are no dramas in the slot right now, but I have my doubts that any of the second-tier dramas would sniff at Survivor's current numbers. Person of Interest might be interesting (another option if there's a comedy expansion), but there are enough other options that leaving Survivor alone is best. We'll have to table the "cutting it down to one cycle" discussion for another year.
Has Undercover Boss earned its way into one of the highly coveted fall timeslots? It's the kind of show that has "utility player" written all over it, and yet its ratings are more "second-tier staple" than "utility." I will say that I would much rather see Undercover Boss on the night than some doomed new show, but they have enough middling dramas that I wouldn't totally mind it bumped to midseason in favor of a veteran.
