The best way to describe the two-week upfront preview is that these Power Rankings are the "SHOW-centric" portion. The Power Rankings are largely about discussing the merits of renewing and/or moving marginal and just-above-marginal shows. Next week's Upfront Questions will be more the SCHEDULE-centric portion. These things do overlap sometimes, but that's a general guideline.
Other May True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
| ABC Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Elite | |||||
| 1 | Modern Family | 4.20 | 3.80 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | The Middle | 2.35 | 2.06 | 7 | 19 |
About as boringly solid as it gets. Can't see either show getting moved.
| ABC Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Actual Middle | |||||
| 3 | Last Man Standing | 1.83 | 1.45 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Suburgatory | 1.83 | 1.76 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | The Neighbors | 1.82 | 1.63 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | How to Live | 1.79 | 1.75 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Malibu Country | 1.51 | 1.25 | 6 | 18 |
On the other hand, there's this crowd.
Start with Last Man Standing and Suburgatory, which feel the safest of the five. Last Man is tied atop the group and it has the "bird in the hand" advantage; all these shows are under consideration for a Friday lineup, and we know this show does OK on Friday. Suburgatory returning to 8:30 and doing reasonably well is something of a "bird in the hand" advantage as well. It could be a reliable player there while the net focuses on 9:30, or it might be the best option to anchor a second Friday hour. Can't see it not occupying one of those roles.
Less certain are the three newbies. The only one still airing episodes is How to Live, but that hasn't turned out to be a good thing as it's dropped at least four tenths in each post-premiere episode. That streak figures to end tonight when it gets an original Modern Family lead-in back, but how significant will the bounce-back be? If it gets well into the low-2's, it's definitely safe and may even be a contender to return to the 9:30 slot. If it gets back to a 1.9 to 2.0, I would likely still renew it as it's still pretty much on the Suburgatory pace, but scheduling it becomes much cloudier. If it only gets to a 1.8? Or lower?! It may be legit trouble time. Will ABC just give it a pass anyway and chalk up the late-season ratings to "bad scheduling"?
It seems the late-season Suburgatory numbers and the relative promise of How to Live have cast legit doubt on the future of The Neighbors, with the perception being that How to Live may squeeze it out of the last spot. It's possible, but I would still renew this show, and I don't even think it's that close. 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.5 after DST looks pretty ugly, but the first two were sandwiched between repeats and the last one was on an oddly low-viewed pre-Easter Wednesday. (The Middle was also 10% weaker than normal on that night.) I could certainly see it getting squeezed out if ABC has just three comedy hours, but if there's a fourth, particularly another on Friday, The Neighbors deserves to be a part of it.
Then there's Malibu Country, which I still feel is a genuine "bubble comedy," whereas its finale ratings seem to have swayed many in a more optimistic direction. I can certainly see the argument: "The Neighbors' finale got a 1.5 while Malibu's got a 1.4 on a Friday!" However, that's just one data point, and when you really get down to it I actually think The Neighbors' slot was at least as tough. Malibu spiked to a 1.4, well above its 1.2ish level for most of 2013, facing nothing scripted and sub-1 ratings on every competing network. The Neighbors had Survivor, Idol and an odd pre-Easter viewing depression. We don't talk about "competition" much when looking at Friday shows (and indeed, the viewing depression is much more important), but the Friday 8:00 hour has not had much, especially on that finale night, and I think that closes a lot of the typical "Friday factor" gap.
...with all that being said, I would still renew it and add a second comedy hour on Friday. I'd actually renew this whole club barring a terrible next couple weeks from How to Live, but Malibu would be my "last" renewal.
| ABC Comedies | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Probably Dunzo? | |||||
| 8 | Happy Endings | 1.18 | 0.79 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Apartment 23 | 1.16 | 0.98 | 4 | 11 |
There's been lots of excuse-making and conspiracy-theorizing with respect to the Happy Endings Friday numbers. Some have said that one must throw out last week's awful numbers because of program guide confusion in the wake of the news coverage pre-emptions from the week before. Realistically, though, the dissection of ratings at this point is not important. There is not a ratings argument. Like Cougar Town last year, an ABC return has to be about something other than ratings.
| ABC Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Elite | |||||
| 1 | Grey's Anatomy | 3.22 | 2.84 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Scandal | 2.86 | 2.70 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Castle | 2.06 | 2.20 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Once Upon a Time | 2.00 | 2.21 | 7 | 20 |
Welcome back to the top tier, Castle. I thought in the fall that the show's True2 score may have been somewhat overcounted, but with the return of compatible-yet-weak Dancing with the Stars it's gotten back into that low-2's vicinity again. The last two ABC Upfront Questions on Monday have revolved around Castle, but it now seems Castle's fate is less about Castle's merits in some other slot and more about what in the world ABC decides to do with the crumbling Dancing with the Stars.
| ABC Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| Three More Renewals?! | |||||
| 5 | Nashville | 1.74 | 1.68 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Revenge | 1.51 | 1.71 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Body of Proof | 1.51 | 1.45 | 4 | 10 |
Nashville and Revenge should be probably pretty much safe for next season. Revenge should arguably be at least two tenths higher in the True2 average, which puts it pretty close to where Nashville is. I like Revenge to move back to 10/9c. The rest kind of depends on the Dancing with the Stars scheduling.
The one that's gotten a little interesting is Body of Proof. After week two of this season, even though it was getting 1.2's, I advised not to totally count it out. Indeed, it has picked up steam. Has it picked up enough steam? Many think so, but now I'm on the other side of the argument. I certainly don't think its recent typical 1.4 level is enough for a renewal, given its most-compatible-possible lead-in has been north of 2.0 and its competition has been as light as you could possibly ask for.
The 1.6 it posted last week was a step in the right direction. If it can stay there or rise next week, its only remaining point before the decision has to get made, I could be convinced it's a legit bubble show. For now, I'm not seeing it. The show's calling card has always been that it's a decent retainer of DWTS and essentially unusable in other situations, but DWTS has been ground down enough that a decent retainer of DWTS with no real scheduling flexibility isn't really noteworthy anymore. I'd rather see what a marginal show with some semblance of upside, like a Nashville, could do in a post-DWTS slot. So Body of Proof would be my last ABC cancellation, and I think I would still cancel it even if it gets another 1.6. But it sounds like it could easily go the other way, and it kind of depends on how many backups they want. My main point is I'd bring back all the bubble comedies first.
| ABC Dramas | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| The Dunzo | |||||
| 8 | Private Practice | 1.40 | 1.18 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Last Resort | 1.25 | 1.12 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Zero Hour | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | 666 Park Ave | 1.07 | 1.23 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Red Widow | 0.90 | 0.85 | 2 | 6 |
| ABC Unscripted | True2 | A18-49 | Counted Eps | Eps | |
| 1 | The Bachelor | 2.90 | 3.03 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Shark Tank | 2.47 | 1.91 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Dancing with the Stars Mon Spring | 2.25 | 2.15 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Dancing with the Stars Tue Spring | 2.22 | 2.10 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | Dancing with the Stars Mon Fall | 1.89 | 2.20 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Celebrity Wife Swap | 1.84 | 1.60 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | 20/20 | 1.80 | 1.48 | 12 | 34 |
| 8 | Dancing with the Stars Tue Fall | 1.74 | 1.90 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Wife Swap | 1.66 | 1.30 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Primetime: What Would You Do? | 1.55 | 1.45 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | America's Funniest Home Videos | 1.44 | 1.51 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | The Taste | 1.28 | 1.27 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Splash | 1.26 | 1.10 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | 1.19 | 1.10 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Bet On Your Baby | 0.81 | 0.60 | 2 | 4 |
The most important question of the ABC upfront by a pretty long shot will be, "What's the deal with Dancing with the Stars?" I'm going to save a big scenario breakdown for next week's Upfront Questions post, but for now suffice to say they could stand pat (I think it'd be a mistake but sadly I can't put it past 'em), they could move it to winter-only (or winter/summer), or they could move it to essentially any combination of nights that doesn't involve Wednesday or Saturday. Can't really start making an ABC schedule till we know that part.
Meanwhile, Shark Tank is another one of those shows kinda like Castle where people debate its "merits" in another timeslot, but at this point I think its scheduling fate is much less about its own merits and more about external factors. Namely, it's more about the merits of a second comedy hour on Friday. Unless there's another very coherent plan for Friday, like another comedy hour, I'd probably leave Shark Tank alone there. But I think ABC has enough renew-worthy comedies that they should expand. So, where to for Shark Tank? Thursday 8/7c is a possibility, but my personal favorite ABC Tuesday schedule involves Shark Tank and a block of two new dramas (the first being S.H.I.E.L.D or whatever it's called right now). The most intuitive lineup of those shows might feel like Shark Tank/SHIELD/other newbie, though I wouldn't totally rule out a 10/9c placement for Shark Tank.
