2013 Upfront Questions, NBC

Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, as I examine the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. I've always favored laying out the possibilities rather than creating an actual mock schedule; this seems to set me up better to review the schedule next week without making it all about how my own prediction/recommendation did.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: NBC True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW

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MONDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The Voice / The Biggest Loser
10:00 - Revolution / Deception

Question: Is standing pat with Revolution a necessary financial play?

As I said last week, NBC could potentially cut back their large order for season two of wild card Revolution, but now that they've announced 22 episodes, they will more likely try to avoid an early Happy Endings or Smash-esque meltdown right out of the gate. My guess? The 22-episode order means Revolution gets another half-season in a direct post-Voice slot. Beyond that, we'll have to re-evaluate, but at least it'll minimize the chances of trimming the order or burning off a massive chunk of the season.

If they don't leave Revolution in a really good slot? I'd send a note under the table to the producers, letting them know they'd better be prepared to end the series at almost any time during the back half of the order.

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TUESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The Voice / Off Their Rockers
9:00 - Go On / Ready for Love / The Voice
9:30 - The New Normal / Ready for Love / The Voice
10:00 - Parenthood / Smash / Ready for Love / Grimm

Question: Will a string of post-Voice mediocrity change the direction of the lead-outs?

Pretty much since The Voice premiered I've been wondering if/when NBC would use The Voice to try to launch a procedural franchise. Many a standalone drama on many a network has grown to legit success with the help of a huge reality franchise lead-in, from CSI (after Survivor) to House (after American Idol) to Castle (after Dancing with the Stars). (And The Biggest Loser no doubt helped Law and Order: SVU hold strong in the mid-aughts as the rest of NBC was collapsing.) An accompanying procedural is an important thing for NBC to pursue, because it's difficult to get into the procedural game these days without some kind of support system. Many a "next great cop show" effort like Prime Suspect can attest to that. Bigger concepts like Revolution have more potential to attract attention on their own.

In the post-Voice slot, those big concepts like Smash and Revolution haven't broken through, and comedy Go On and reality Ready for Love definitely didn't work. Yes, those shows themselves deserve much of the blame. It's not that those genres can't work. But at this point, why not? I wouldn't want them to wake up in a couple years and see their massive lead-in burning out before they ever tried.

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WEDNESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Animal Practice / Whitney / Dateline
8:30 - Guys with Kids / Dateline
9:00 - Law and Order: SVU
10:00 - Chicago Fire 

Question: Will NBC stand behind its rare glimmer of Wednesday hope?

As mentioned in last year's edition, NBC Wednesday was the only combo of network/night that had finished in fourth place for each of the last six years. The streak continued in 2012-13, but the SVU/Chicago Fire lineup was an unquestionable step in the right direction. Compare it to some of what cycled through the night last year, from Harry's Law to Rock Center to Bent. Though I've been in favor of SVU to Thursday, the more I think about this, the more I think NBC is going to leave SVU and Chicago Fire alone. It's not the best situation for SVU, but that's not the show NBC should be bending over for at this point. And we know NBC can do much worse in this hour.

Much like CBS, NBC will have plenty of things to promote on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday almost regardless of what they do on Wednesday. So a lineup that doesn't need to get promoted much would probably be welcome. I could still see a big Wednesday shake-up, but it probably only comes if the Thursday lineup is much less shaken up than most are expecting.

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THURSDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - 30 Rock / Community
8:30 - Up All Night / Parks and Recreation
9:00 - The Office
9:30 - Parks and Recreation / 1600 Penn
10:00 - Rock Center / Do No Harm / Hannibal

Question: What form does a revamped NBC Thursday take?

Last year I said: "I really do think we're now past the point where NBC can just throw on Community / 30 Rock / Office / Parks and pump their fist into the air." Well, oops. They basically did that, except they had Up All Night in the fall and Community at midseason. (And they threw in one final surrender for good measure at 10/9c with Rock Center.)  But NBC's a deeper network than a year ago; players like The Voice, Parenthood and Grimm feel more entrenched, while they added another OK player to the stable in Chicago Fire. So there's really no need for NBC to raise the white flag on an entire night this year.

But surrendering Thursday in 2012-13 means the network is essentially starting from scratch, as they've been doing on Wednesday for every year in recent memory. They could really go in any direction. They could maintain the comedy Thursday tradition with a two-hour block including two, three or even four new shows. Maybe their best comedy hope at this point is to explode back into the game the way ABC did with its four-newbie block in fall 2009. But unless you have a Middle and a Modern Family, that can really blow up. (See Fox's Tuesday last season.) Does Michael J. Fox's show actually have Modern Family potential? They could also swerve out of the comedy game entirely, perhaps a shrewd counterprogramming decision if it looks like CBS is adding a sitcom hour. A tri-drama night? Is a reality franchise like The Biggest Loser the best play? When the slate is so clean, it's hard to come up with a strong opinion in any direction... but I would guess yet another stab at comedy is probably most likely.

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FRIDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Dateline / Fashion Star
9:00 - Grimm / Dateline
10:00 - Dateline / Rock Center

Question: Will NBC make a more definitive statement about its Friday scripted priorities?

It's become clear in the last two seasons that Grimm is something of an asset for NBC. But it's an asset that they still haven't figured out how to use. The filler/Grimm/filler lineup has never felt like a very good use of a decent-rated drama. Grimm's not exactly a huge launch-pad, but it should be a decent lead-in by Friday standards. And while Grimm has continued to hold up in its tough Friday spot, if/when the audience begins drifting away, that'll only be accelerated by the utter lack of support. NBC should either go with multiple scripted hours (filler/Grimm/Hannibal?) or zero scripted hours, using Grimm as a hole-filler on Wednesday or Thursday. I'd prefer a coherent plan of "cheap crap" to the incoherent, flow-free Friday of today.
 

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SUNDAY

2012-13 Schedule
7:00 - Football Night in America / Dateline
8:00 - Sunday Night Football / Dateline
9:00 - Sunday Night Football / Celebrity Apprentice
10:00 - Sunday Night Football / Celebrity Apprentice

Question: Is Celebrity Apprentice no longer big enough to be the midseason Sunday solution?

My guess is that it isn't; after all, NBC was already trying to phase it out at the upfront last year, but Ready for Love's move to Tuesday meant a return to two-hour Apprentice episodes. Celebrity Apprentice has continued to decline faster than the league average, and the face of the program continues to say embarrassing things on social media. It might eke out another season, but the Olympics break in February could actually give NBC more spring options in the slot than usual. (Like a post-Olympics launch of The Biggest Loser?)

Of course, the ratings are off the charts, so you never know...