2013 Upfront Questions, Fox

Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, as I examine the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. I've always favored laying out the possibilities rather than creating an actual mock schedule; this seems to set me up better to review the schedule next week without making it all about how my own prediction/recommendation did.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: Fox True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW

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MONDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Bones
9:00 - The Mob Doctor / The Following

Question: Will Fox try harder to transcend the "filler while we wait for The Following" perception?

I still like Glee on this night, as discussed last week, but I doubt it's happening after the two-year renewal. If it's a new drama, it should get the same kind of "limited-run" promotion as The Following did. A typical 13+back nine drama like The Mob Doctor without a midseason home just feels like filler, and it was treated as such by the promotional department and the viewers. The "event" feel, the 13 consecutive episodes, and the promise of an ending are things Fox should work to their advantage in the fall just as they have in the spring with 24 and The Following.

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TUESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Raising Hope / Hell's Kitchen
8:30 - Ben and Kate/ Hell's Kitchen
9:00 - New Girl
9:300 - The Mindy Project

Question: What's the solution to keep New Girl afloat?

I don't like Glee for a return to the night, but I can't completely rule out it happening. The Fox Tuesday 8:00 hour is one of the biggest wild-cards on any network. There are a couple tough competitors in NCIS and The Voice. The 9:00 lead-out show isn't strong enough to leave on an island (see last year) but is strong enough, particularly in younger demos like 18-34, to try hard to keep going for the long term. Hell's Kitchen has worked pretty well in the hour and would be a nice safety net for midseason. Until then? Could be Glee, could be a new drama, could be some other reality show, could be another comedy hour. If it's a comedy hour, definitely expect it to be a much splashier effort than Raising Hope and Ben and Kate last year. They can't count on New Girl to lift all boats again.

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WEDNESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The X Factor / American Idol

Question: To what extent will Fox acknowledge that its singing empire is crumbling?

I was kind of afraid all the stupid press in the last few weeks about how American Idol had "stabilized" might have encouraged Fox into yet another year of ridiculous complacency. But maybe the drop to sub-3.0 on both American Idol nights last week will be the final kick in the pants they need. Idol is staring at 25%+ year-to-year declines for a second straight year, while The X Factor was down over 20% on both nights in its second season.

There are some super-creative options for The X Factor and American Idol; they could cancel the results shows and reinvent Thursday. I'm not a fan of this one because... well, I remember how utterly out of the game Fox was on Thursday before they moved Idol, and they don't have the depth right now to do any better. They could move them to somewhere like Thursday/Friday and reinvent Wednesday. I'm not a fan of this one because I don't think the teen and 18-34-heavy audiences will follow them to Friday; it accelerates the decline unnecessarily.

My vote is more conservative, but they should at least do this much: shrink the Wednesday shows. X and Idol are not "great" lead-ins anymore, and by next season they may not even be "good." But "decent" still seems like a strong possibility, at least for one more year, and that's better than they can do otherwise. A new drama or comedy (comedies?) should absolutely go after the Wednesday edition of these shows for much of this season. They need to try to get something going, because 2014-15 is not exactly an absolute given, particularly for The X Factor.

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THURSDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The X Factor / American Idol
9:00 - Glee

Question: Are the singing lead-ins still compelling launch-pads for new shows?

I'm pretty sure the answer is yes, particularly in the early stages of American Idol's season. It's not like Fox has a ton of better options, even if Idol gets down to a 2.0 next year. Glee might stay put, but pitting it against Grey's Anatomy seems like the worst possible way to wring ratings out of this franchise. With CBS maybe headed for a comedy expansion, we're once again in a spot where some kind of procedural could be a good counter-programming option.

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FRIDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Kitchen Nightmares
9:00 - Fringe / Touch

Question: Does Fox make any real scripted effort on a post-Fringe Friday?

There's only one scripted show on the current Fox roster that feels like it might hit the Friday "sweet spot" of too weak for a weeknight but possessing the kind of audience that could follow it to Friday: Raising Hope. If Fox is really picking up five new comedies, perhaps one of those (or, worst-case, The Mindy Project) could join Raising. I'm not sure it's smart to make much of a scripted "effort" beyond that, and I can't rule out zero scripted effort whatsoever. (With Cops cancelled earlier today, maybe Kitchen Nightmares and something like the still-unscheduled Hotel Hell?)
 

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SUNDAY

2012-13 Schedule
7:30 - The Cleveland Show
8:00 - The Simpsons
8:30 - Bob's Burgers
9:00 - Family Guy
9:30 - American Dad!

Question: Will Fox return to an integration of live-action and animation on Sunday?

It's easy to forget because it's been a few years now, but combining the comedy types has been far from uncommon historically for Fox. It was particularly prevalent before Family Guy and American Dad! came along to solidify the 9:00 hour for the 'toons. With Fox apparently looking at a lot of comedy pickups and trimming down its animated second-tier a bit, don't be a shocked to see this integration again. The most obvious candidate is Dads, already picked up for six episodes, since it comes from Fox animated king Seth MacFarlane.