2013 Upfront Questions, The CW

Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, as I examine the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. I've always favored laying out the possibilities rather than creating an actual mock schedule; this seems to set me up better to review the schedule next week without making it all about how my own prediction/recommendation did.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: CW True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW

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MONDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - 90210 / The Carrie Diaries / Oh Sit!
9:00 - Gossip Girl / 90210

Question: Does the CW's new direction mean they won't surrender Monday anymore?

For most of the last half decade, the CW weeknights have pretty much just been The Vampire Diaries and a bunch of heavily female-skewing soaps. Given that landscape, Monday seemed a natural fit for a "Surrender Night." The soaps didn't match up well with Monday competitors like The Voice, The Bachelor and the ABC Family programming, so why not put the weaker ones on this night and just take the hit?

Though I've talked for two years about how weak Tuesdays are, I now wonder if Monday is a better candidate for CDub aggression. Mostly I wonder that because the network already has a returning player that could simply stay on Tuesday (Hart of Dixie), while they're essentially forced into starting from scratch on Monday either way. And "Genre Night #3" might actually be a decent counter-programming option here.

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TUESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Hart of Dixie
9:00 - Emily Owens M.D. / Cult

Question: Did Hart of Dixie do enough in season two to retain a weeknight anchor role?

"In a vacuum," probably not, just like "in a vacuum" Beauty and the Beast shouldn't be renewed. But because of how the CW is currently constructed, with three shows rating miles ahead of the rest, the marginal Hart of Dixie is pretty decisively its network's fourth-strongest show. Unless they spread themselves very thin with a flood of genre shows, Hart of Dixie and a low-rated returnee like Beauty and the Beast or (less likely) The Carrie Diaries might be the best way for the network to fill the seventh and eighth hours.

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WEDNESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Arrow
9:00 - Supernatural

Question: Across how many nights does the CW stretch its "Big Four"?

The other CW questions are nice, but this is the network's big kahuna. Maybe I'm underestimating some other new show, but I feel the network has exactly four shows that should be ranked well above the rest: The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, Supernatural and The Originals (in that order). In The Originals' case, it's probably putting the cart before the horse, but I would think there'd be at least some interest out of the gate, much like how I felt about Arrow last year.

So how does the CW use this "big four"? There are the two extremes:

1. Swing for the fences and put one on each of the four nights. Fox really peaked as a network when it moved American Idol in the 2010-11 season so they could set up their four anchors on four different nights: House, Glee, Idol Wednesday, Idol Thursday. Of course, none of the CDub's big four are really in those shows' class, and The Originals, y'know, hasn't actually aired an episode yet, so this seems a bit too brash for now.

And 2. They could truly consolidate their strength, putting all four on just two nights (Wednesday/Thursday). It'd be the best arrangement for those shows, but it leaves the marginal returnees and the other new shows to fend for themselves across Monday and Tuesday. Unless, again, I'm really underestimating one of the other new shows, this is a little too extreme for me as well. But the network is half-owned by the entity that squeezed five big hit comedies into three hours last year, so this is actually fairly likely.

My hope is the reality is somewhere in the middle:

3. Move one of the "Slightly Less Big Two" (Supernatural or The Originals) to a third night. It's probably more likely Supernatural moves to a third night than unproven The Originals.

Or my "pet idea," 4. Put the "Slightly Less Big Two" together on a third night. If they can't have their "ideal" pairings, at least putting them together might create some good mojo, and this would give the network its best shot at truly taking a third evening out of the "complete disaster" column. And it opens up "The Biggest Two" to lead into shows that have less ability to attract an audience on their own.

I'd do #4, but in terms of likelihood, I'm fairly confident it's either going to be #2 or #3, because they'll want to make sure The Originals has the best chance. Can't really blame them. If The Originals is legit and Supernatural continues to defy Nielsen gravity (or something else takes off), look out for #1 maybe a year from now.

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THURSDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The Vampire Diaries
9:00 - Beauty and the Beast

Question: The Originals or something more original?

This is basically just a continuation of the Wednesday thing, but I will add that if The Originals does end up on another night, I'd still preview it (or at least run encores for a week or two) on Thursday at the very beginning of the season.

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FRIDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - America's Next Top Model / Nikita
9:00 - Nikita / Cult

Question: Is the CW on the verge of giving up on another night?

Nikita, if/when renewed, would officially become sort of the Fringe of the CW, a show that gets renewed at least once beyond the point of acceptable ratings, but at least it allows the network to say it's spending pretty big on a tough night. It may be gone by early 2014 if the short season rumors are true. So what then? We still don't know what Fox is going to do on its post-Fringe Friday, and Fox doesn't have the huge holes earlier in the week that the CDub does.

Unless the CW can really get the schedule stabilized in 2013-14, this night may well get downsized to a cheap filler/repeat haven for good. I can't say I think there's any scripted show not named Nikita that feels like it should really go here. But if Beauty and the Beast is placed on Friday, at least we'll know they're still somewhat "serious" about keeping a fifth night alive.