2013 Upfront Questions, CBS

Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, as I examine the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. I've always favored laying out the possibilities rather than creating an actual mock schedule; this seems to set me up better to review the schedule next week without making it all about how my own prediction/recommendation did.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: CBS True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW

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MONDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - How I Met Your Mother
8:30 - Partners / Rules of Engagement
9:00 - 2 Broke Girls
9:30 - Mike and Molly
10:00 - Hawaii Five-0

Question: Did CBS bet on the wrong horse or treat the right horse the wrong way?

Beyond the considerable shock that CBS didn't add a fourth comedy hour at the last upfront, there was an additional layer of head-scratchiness in the sitcom schedule. Despite concentrating all that sitcom strength tightly into three hours, they still managed to create an unnecessarily dangerous situation for their youngest hit 2 Broke Girls. And it's played out in the worst-case way, with Partners a dud and 2 Broke Girls enduring a sizable sophomore slump. It only slightly recovered after the pulling of Partners, but the problems have resumed in the spring with Rules of Engagement at 8:30.

How much of this is on scheduling and how much is on 2 Broke Girls? Personally I think it is a terrible program, but it was also scheduled terribly, so I really don't know. And while we won't know the answer to this question after the upfront either, the upfront will let us know what CBS thinks. If CBS keeps it in the 9:00 saddle but gives it a more sure-thing lead-in like Chuck Lorre's Mom: right horse wrong way. If CBS moves it (presumably back to 8:30 after HIMYM) and starts over in the 9:00 hour: big vote of no-confidence. Both are possible, but I bet CBS sticks with 2BG at 9:00. They probably don't want to admit defeat with the show just yet. (I wrote all of this prior to last night's Deadline post claiming Mom will get picked up today and is favored to go to 8:30, but you don't have to believe me!!)

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TUESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - NCIS
9:00 - NCIS: Los Angeles
10:00 - Vegas / Golden Boy

Question: Is a third NCIS the only thing that could kick LA out of the cushy slot?

I believe it is. The dynamic between the two shows really hasn't been changed in the four years of LA's existence, we don't know anything more about LA's standalone potential than we did on the day it premiered in 2009, and since there's no new info, there's no reason to believe CBS will act any differently than they did at each of the last three upfronts... unless another show with those four magic letters in its title gets the nod. And even if NCIS: Red makes it to the fall schedule, I'm not totally convinced this breakup will happen.

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WEDNESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Survivor
9:00 - Criminal Minds
10:00 - CSI

Question: Will there be enough change on other nights to necessitate keeping this lineup intact for a third season?

In case that sounds like a loaded question... it is, because that's what feels most likely. This night still has that perfect "good not great" feel from top to bottom. Still think CSI may be the best Friday fit of the second-tier shows, but if Thursday and Monday are getting changed significantly, a CSI move is likely one shake-up too many for the usually stability-happy CBS.

However, if CBS chickens out on the new comedies again and keeps Thursday relatively intact, I'd give some real consideration to the CSI move. In theory, Criminal Minds is quite possibly the network's best launch-pad for a new drama.

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THURSDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The Big Bang Theory
8:30 - Two and a Half Men
9:00 - Person of Interest
10:00 - Elementary

Question: In the comedy expansion decision, does great development trump weaker returnees?

A fourth CBS comedy hour was my biggest drum-beat of the last upfront season, mostly because the strength of the returnees' lead-in potential was so incredible. (Five of the top seven scripted shows on TV, I'll remind you one last time!!!) It seemed so obvious because it looked like there was very little required lifting from the new shows. But it turned out they had no lifting whatsoever from the new shows, and thus awful development trumped a nearly unprecedented amount of returnee strength.

This year, the strength of the returnees is greatly diminished at every step on the totem pole except the top spot, where The Big Bang Theory is even stronger. And while last year CBS could've created a four-hour sked with two or (in a really extreme case) even just one slot for a new show, this year they will probably need three.

But while filling two slots with new shows was a stretch last year, this year's crop could make it a stretch to fill only one or (if Mike and Molly is held) two slots with new shows. I said early in the year that it would take a HIMYM renewal, a Two and a Half Men renewal and fantastic comedy development to make hour four happen. Well, the first two are in the bank, and #3 certainly seems like it might be the case. But since this is so development-dependent, and since development is (for all the Pilot Panic parsing) still a great unknown, I don't have nearly as strong an opinion this year.

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FRIDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - CSI: NY / Undercover Boss / The Job
9:00 - Made in Jersey / CSI: NY / Vegas
10:00 - Blue Bloods

Question: Which veteran assumes the CSI: NY role?

For all the talk swirling around Friday moves every year, CBS has historically kept its moves of veteran dramas to Friday at a bare minimum. Only CSI: NY has recently become a Friday staple following a weeknight run, while shows like Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs and Blue Bloods were "home-grown" Friday products. But with CSI: NY seemingly on the way out, CBS will likely be forced into transitioning another veteran into the role. They could even move two, but the history suggests one is more than enough and the third slot goes to Undercover Boss or a new show.

If you believe repeat tryouts have any tea-leaf value, then the clear frontrunner is Hawaii Five-0, which has aired two repeats on the night this season and was originally slated for another in April. CSI feels like a good fit, but it might be too many moves. Elementary also feels like a good fit, but it might be too early in its run for such a downshift. (Do they want to artificially damage its ratings before scoring a syndication deal?) The Mentalist or The Good Wife are possible, but at this point moving from Sunday to Friday on CBS is practically a lateral move, and thus a pretty extraneous one unless CBS suddenly gets much more serious about Sunday.
 

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SUNDAY

2012-13 Schedule
7:00 - 60 Minutes
8:00 - The Amazing Race
9:00 - The Good Wife
10:00 - The Mentalist

Question: Might the tight real estate create a Sunday surprise?

We've become conditioned to expect CBS to phone in its Sunday lineup dating back to when it was a movie night. Now it's all about "meh"-rated prestige shows and (particularly in the overrun-riddled 10:00 hour) veteran dramas on their last legs. They certainly have good reason to do this, with cable and the NFL taking over the night and frequently uncertain start times. Throwing a new show into this fray is particularly risky.

However, with so many veterans returning and a lot of interesting buns in the development oven, there's also good reason not to do this. Despite all of the above, these are still hours in which a ton of people are watching TV, and a two-hour chunk of real estate is a huge deal on a network with so much depth. I'm just saying that we shouldn't rule out CBS zig-zagging again when we think we have them pegged. Putting another hour in play would be so valuable for them. Some sort of timeslot-share between low-rated The Good Wife and The Mentalist? Person of Interest, jettisoned from Thursday by sitcom expansion? NCIS: Los Angeles, jettisoned by Red? Survivor?? A comedy block???

If I have to make a prediction, I say (as I said in the Power Rankings) that they don't do any of this, but by no means should these ideas be off their radar completely.