2013 Upfront Questions, ABC

Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, as I examine the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. I've always favored laying out the possibilities rather than creating an actual mock schedule; this seems to set me up better to review the schedule next week without making it all about how my own prediction/recommendation did.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: ABC True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW

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MONDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Dancing with the Stars / The Bachelor
9:00 - Castle

Question: How dire is the Dancing with the Stars problem, really?

Yesterday my diagnosis for the X Factor / Idol problem on Fox was essentially "ride it out, but try to launch some pieces around it." The reason I favor that idea is because there's not an actual scheduling fix for what ails the Fox shows. ABC's Dancing with the Stars is a different kind of problem, because it's abundantly clear that it's airing directly in competition with a much hotter music program taking a lot of potential viewers away. It might be a considerably more valuable show if scheduled differently. Something should be done to get DWTS away from The Voice. But will it?

Here are the most obvious possibilities:

1. Stand pat. Dancing is still a "league average" show or better on a tough night, and that's nothing to sniff at, especially on a below-average network. If there are other big shake-ups to promote, ABC might grind out one last season with this arrangement, even if it's clearly less than ideal.

2. Keep it on Monday, but in between The Voice cycles. In other words, have a regular season of Bachelor / DWTS / Bachelor (maybe another DWTS in the summer?) rather than the current DWTS / Bachelor / DWTS. This would be the way to create the least reverberation across the rest of the schedule. Is ABC resting Bachelor Pad this summer so they can give the Bachelor franchise a break before returning it to the fall?

3. Sunday. Airing Dancing on Sunday could accomplish two huge things: a) get it away from The Voice; and b) get some of the dramas out of the increasingly awful Sunday fray (more on that later). The biggest logistical problem is it would probably have to join in tandem with #2 since the British version airs on Saturday/Sunday in the fall.

4. Thursday/Friday. This has always been my pet idea because it could: a) stabilize the long-troubled Thursday 8:00 hour; and b) with its very old-skewing audience, probably hold up pretty well on Friday and provide an ideal lead-in for a 20/20. But the blossoming of the Grey's Anatomy/Scandal combo creates a great deal of scheduling awkwardness around this idea. I had always thought they could do a few two-hour editions, then premiere Grey's and Scandal circa the beginning of November sweeps and shrink the performance edition to an hour. But do they want to wait that long on the increasingly powerful dramas? And what of the large hole created on Monday?

My vote? Well, it's such a solvable problem that I say they should definitely do something. I do appreciate the "two birds with one stone" elegance of #3. In terms of what will happen, I always lean conservative, so I'm guessing #2 is most likely (probably followed by #1, sadly).

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TUESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Dancing with the Stars / The Taste / Celebrity Wife Swap / Splash
9:00 - Happy Endings / The Taste / Dancing with the Stars
9:30 - Apartment 23 / The Taste / Dancing with the Stars
10:00 - Private Practice / Body of Proof

Question: Is ABC finally in the right position to go really aggressive on Tuesday?

Last year ABC pieced together a bunch of straggling returnees in a lineup that looked bad on upfront day and even worse when the fall ratings started coming in. Perhaps they could do that again; a couple second-tier sitcoms like Suburgatory and The Neighbors, then DWTS results and Body of Proof? But let's hope DWTS has been ground down enough that ABC will be motivated toward something a little more transformational. I remain convinced this is the perfect night for S.H.I.E.L.D., because if it does as well as seems possible, there's enough space for it to truly shape the night. S.H.I.E.L.D. may give ABC a hope in the Thursday 8:00 hour or on Sunday, but even if it hits, it'll be funneling that audience into something like Grey's Anatomy that won't see the maximum benefit.

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WEDNESDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - The Middle
8:30 - The Neighbors / Suburgatory / Family Tools
9:00 - Modern Family
9:30 - Suburgatory / How to Live
10:00 - Nashville 

Question: Which of the potential second-tier returning sitcoms get the cushy Wednesday slot(s)?

There are only two with a really solid chance to stay in the Wednesday mix: Suburgatory (a proven decent commodity at 8:30 between Middle and Modern) and recently introduced How to Live (which might have shown enough to get another try after Modern Family in the fall). It's perfectly reasonable neither ends up on the initial lineup if ABC has some great fits with the anchors in development. It's also not impossible that both could end up back on Wednesday, if ABC holds at just three sitcom hours and/or wants to focus their promotional muscle on big shake-ups elsewhere.

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THURSDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Last Resort / Zero Hour / Wife Swap
9:00 - Grey's Anatomy
10:00 - Scandal

Question: Is the time now for ABC to mess with its blooming power hours?

Again, there are several possibilities here. In the most extreme case, they could actually move one to another night as they did with Grey's from Sunday in 2006. Maybe Grey's or Scandal is really just the best they can come up with to solve the Tuesday problem. But ideally, I'd keep both on Thursday and set up Scandal to take over the Grey's Anatomy role.

They could flip the two, giving Scandal the higher-viewed slot. Possible, but unless they're doing something big at 8:00 (probably DWTS or S.H.I.E.L.D.) it'd be really risky to leave Scandal with huge lead-in uncertainty.

A sneaky-interesting suggestion is to shift both shows down an hour, going with Grey's / Scandal / new drama. That may be the best arrangement to maximize the Scandal ratings, resembling the "love letter to a young returning drama" that they did for Revenge on Sunday last year. It wouldn't be best for Grey's, or for the 10:00 hour, but those are probably lower on the priority list anyway.

This two-hour block is not nearly as world-beating as Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy in 2006. So unless there is some really compelling reason, I'd leave this one alone for another year and see what happens. It's not like they are totally without options on the other problematic nights.

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FRIDAY

2012-13 Schedule
8:00 - Shark Tank / Last Man Standing / Happy Endings
8:30 - Shark Tank / Malibu Country / Happy Endings
9:00 - Primetime: What Would You Do? / Shark Tank
10:00 - 20/20

Question: Will the full-fledged return of TGIF be realized?

ABC head Paul Lee has made his desire for this known since very early in his tenure. Something has gotten in his way, but fortunately it's one of those "good problems to have" in #1 Friday show Shark Tank. What would Shark Tank do on another night? I have serious doubts that it is best used anywhere other than Friday, in terms of valuing its ratings based on the timeslot (True2). But it'd probably be a solid player almost anywhere. If ABC doesn't add a Friday comedy hour, it'll be because they don't believe in the comedy options enough, not because Shark Tank is stopping them.

Another way to look at this: they could do a great-for-Friday Shark Tank plus a probably bad-for-Tuesday second-tier comedy block, or they could do an acceptable-for-Friday comedy block plus an acceptable-for-Tuesday Shark Tank. So moving Shark Tank would surely hurt the Friday ratings (and quite possibly the combined ratings), but it'd limit the potential downside somewhere else.
 

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SUNDAY

2012-13 Schedule
7:00 - America's Funniest Home Videos
8:00 - Once Upon a Time
9:00 - Revenge
10:00 - 666 Park Ave / Red Widow

Question: How does ABC deal with the increasingly daunting event season and cable presence?

With no NFL help and a focus on buzzy dramas, ABC is by far the worst-suited broadcast network for Sunday. Eventually they may need to address that at a fundamental level. Is this the year? As always, there are varying degrees of change they can make. They could basically stand pat in terms of the fall schedule, but at least address that Once and Revenge were so beaten-down this season that we're past the days of sprinkling these shows into the event-riddled portion of the year. A drama-filled Sunday lineup should be prepared for a long mid-season hiatus.

Or they could go the drastic route, and just admit that these problems aren't going away. Perhaps it could be the night for their reality franchises. It's too bad they don't have something like Extreme Makeover: Home Edition around anymore, because something like that (or maybe even Shark Tank?) into a two-hour reality show from 9 to 11 could be a solid way to tackle the Sunday landscape of today.