Earlier in the season I looked at what I would call about as good an example as there is of Incompetence: the Tuesday night problem. There doesn't seem to be any real environmental reason why the networks should be so weak on Tuesday compared to other nights. It seems like the best answer is that the programming is simply not good enough. I've also looked at a what I consider a strong example of Inevitability: rerun programming. In a world filled with on-demand options, watching reruns on a linear schedule is much less appealing, and there's not really anything the networks can do about that.
But today we're looking at a more complicated example: the 10:00 hour. As with Tuesday and reruns, there's been a significant depreciation of the ratings in this space in recent years. Not just comparing raw numbers across seasons, but comparing the relationship between 10:00 ratings and 8:00/9:00 ratings. Unlike with Tuesday, though, there are some pretty good reasons. Today we're going to discuss the Incompetence vs. Inevitability in the 10:00 depreciation. And while it may not truly be "solvable" as the headline promises, I will lay out a couple ways that I think the networks can handle the hour better.
The 10:00 Damage
There have always been two pieces of "competition" in the 10:00 hour that we can't really quantify with hard numbers: 1) local newscasts on Fox (you might assume from just looking at national ratings that the big three face "no competition" from Fox, but these get good numbers); and 2) "going to bed."
Beyond those, two other important ones have picked up steam in recent years: cable originals and the DVR. And the DVR's impact can be broken in two. First, it makes it easier to go to bed and watch a 10:00 program later (probably skipping commercials). This is evident in looking at Live + 7 charts, where many 10:00 programs rank among the highest percent gainers. And second, the 10:00 hour takes place after two other hours of primetime programming, which may have put some other stuff on the DVR. So the 10:00 hour in a sense has to compete with the earlier programs too, and 10:00 shows don't have the benefit of additional primetime hours to watch within the same day window.
All of this has surely played at least some role in a significant depreciation of 10:00 ratings. Here's how originals in the 10:00 half-hour have developed over the last ten years, comparing vs. the "league average" of 100 each year:
| 10:00 | |
| 2003-04 | 104 |
| 2004-05 | 107 |
| 2005-06 | 105 |
| 2006-07 | 95 |
| 2007-08 | 87 |
| 2008-09 | 89 |
| 2009-10 | 83 |
| 2010-11 | 85 |
| 2011-12 | 86 |
| 2012-13 | 83 |
The 10:00 originals have pretty steadily declined over the last ten years, from above league average in the first three years all the way down to just over 80% of the league average this year. (It's a little smoother if you remember that the writer's strike hurt this hour in 2007-08, while the oddly low 2009-10 season had 90 in-season hours of The Jay Leno Show at 10/9c, which averaged a mere 55 A18-49+.) The trend is clear; but how much of it is Incompetence and how much is Inevitability? I don't have an easy answer, but I do have some things to consider:
The "Ceiling" Has Shrunk Even Faster. While the average 10:00 original has dropped by about 20% from 2003-04 to 2012-13 (relative to all originals), the top 10:00 originals are down by around half. In 2003-04, ER (250) was comfortably a megahit, while the top 10:00 shows today are right around the 125 hit line; that's where Revolution (134) should end up, and it's where Scandal (113) would be just taking its 2013 performances.
So are the Revolution and Scandal ratings really the so-called "ceiling" for broadcast at 10:00? Probably not. The large sample size in the average drop is more indicative of the "true" depreciation of the hour than the top shows alone, meaning broadcast probably could still hang something around 20% below ER (a borderline megahit, 200, or about a 4.2 demo average) if they really wanted to. It's probably not that far from where The Big Bang Theory or The Voice would be if skedded there.
But do they really want to? For all the talk about making affiliates happy, nothing really gets scheduled like ER or the CSI spin-offs anymore. 10:00 breakouts like Grey's Anatomy have been moved to 9:00 and used to lead into other primetime programs. 10:00 is now the land of the good-not-great, and that's likely a largely conscious decision by the networks.
Rise of Fox/Sitcom Strength. Another reason for the 10:00 decline may be that the hour is disenfranchised from two of the things trending up over the last decade: the Fox network, which doesn't nationally program 10:00, and sitcoms, which almost always stay out of the hour on broadcast. The 10:00 hour was much better suited for the very big three drama-favorable environment of the mid-aughts. (Though the flip side of that argument is that 10:00 has not really recovered as Fox has collapsed in the last couple years...)
Cable Can Still Pop a Number. Those much more into psychoanalysis than me say things like, "People have become conditioned to flip to cable at 10:00!" I don't personally believe anybody really thinks like that. People just flip to things that they like watching, and there's a better chance cable will provide that at 10.
Is it bad news for broadcast that cable has now owned the top 10:00 entertainment program on TV on two occasions, first with Jersey Shore and now with Duck Dynasty? I suppose. But there is a sunnier way to look at those shows: those ratings are at least still possible. While cable may have some content restriction advantages, I still don't believe the ceiling is higher on cable, in any environment. So the fact that someone is hitting these kinds of numbers suggests to me the hour is not as inherently disadvantaged as some people think. Compare it to an environment like Friday, where nobody has proven capable of legitimate hit-type numbers, and 10:00 still looks pretty workable.
Two 10:00 Ideas
So my conclusion is a good old fashioned hedge of my bets: there's some Incompetence and some Inevitability. And a lot of the so-called "Incompetence" may be intentional. While I don't think there are any ERs being robbed of multiple ratings points just because they're at 10:00, it does seem unlikely we'll return to a world in which the 10:00 hour is substantially outrating the 8:00 hour. But even if there's some Incompetence, that means something can be done about it. In the Tuesday post I suggested lineups, but my ideas for 10:00 are more philosophical, more macro.
I've discussed all the different styles of competition that a 10:00 show has to face: DVRed stuff, local newscasts, cable originals and "going to bed." I have to believe that all of this makes it at least a little bit tougher to get people to start at show at 10:00 than to start a show at 9:00 or 8:00.
But it's possible to get people to watch something in the 10:00 hour without having to capture their attention at 10:00. How? A two-hour block, starting at 9/8c. I'd like to see more reality shows move to the Celebrity Apprentice model. In the celebrity era, Apprentice never set the world on fire at 9:00 (and it's pretty much a flop by 9:00 standards these days), but it becomes much more valuable when that audience sticks around or even grows in the 10:00 hour. Those ratings actually compare pretty favorably with other network offerings at 10:00. Early in Celebrity Apprentice's Sunday run, it was one of the strongest 10:00 shows on TV.
I'm not talking about The Voice here. It's obviously so high-rated that there's great value in using it to lead into another primetime program. But the decent-rated shows that aren't so big that they need to be "launching" something should all at least consider this. The Biggest Loser? Dancing with the Stars? There's such a small sample size of eligible programs that this won't exactly save the world, but it's something to consider going forward. I didn't mind the idea at all for Ready for Love... too bad it was a total non-starter conceptually.
And if you're not buying this "tougher to get people to start a show at 10:00" business, I'll just note that the two lowest rated Celebrity Apprentice episodes this season were one-hour, 10:00-starting episodes. Coincidence?!?! (Maybe.)
My other beef with network 10:00 scheduling is the abundance of new shows. For the most part, it hasn't gone well in the hour recently. Nearly all the success in the strong new class of 2011-12 came in the first two hours (even among dramas, with Once Upon a Time, Person of Interest and Grimm), and the weak new class of 2012-13 has been filled with underwhelming 10/9c performers, from surprise duds like Vegas and 666 Park Ave to supposedly sure things that turned out "meh" like Elementary and Nashville. It may not be a coincidence. You're asking new shows to compete with cable, the DVR and "going to bed" when 10:00 arrives, and these shows don't have any track record to draw on. A big chunk of the problem may be that there's an even larger inherent 10:00 disadvantage for a new program seeking to build something in the face of all the choices when the clock strikes ten.
Certainly there are "good" 10:00 slots; if you have a lead-in the size of The Voice or Grey's Anatomy or in-its-prime CSI, by all means go new. That lead-in will help to offset some of the disadvantages. But the "model" 10:00 show is not a new show. Generally speaking, the networks should increasingly look toward the more fruitful 9:00 hour (maybe even the 8:00 hour) for new shows.
As for the 10:00 hour, it's better suited for second-tier veterans whose ratings aren't so compelling that a large opportunity to "launch" something is missed. One of the great success stories of the 10:00 hour in recent years was the move of the mothership CSI to the hour in 2011-12. The show was struggling in its historic Thursday 9/8c slot in early 2011, sometimes even dropping into fourth place, but it's transitioned into a dominant-for-10:00 role in the last couple years. (Many fans would probably credit creative changes over scheduling prowess, though.)
So what are some examples of second-tier shows currently in the early evening that might help stabilize 10:00? I've got one for each network: Revenge (ABC), NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) and Law and Order: SVU (NBC). None of these are pulling particularly launchpad-worthy numbers for their networks but should be able to improve upon weak newbie numbers in some 10:00 slot.
My ideal primetime schedule would be: "launch"-worthy show at 8:00, new show at 9:00, reliably decent-rated veteran at 10:00. It's not always easy to pull this off in practice because there are many other considerations, but I think it's a good model to give new shows the best chance. Here are a few examples:
NCIS (8:00) / new The Mentalist (9:00) / Without a Trace (10:00) in 2008-09
Comedy hour (8:00) / new Person of Interest (9:00) / The Mentalist (10:00) in 2011-12
The Voice (8:00) / new Go On / The New Normal (9:00) / Parenthood (10:00) in 2012-13
Yeah, those NBC comedies this year turned out to be incredibly fraudulent, but the way they were hammocked between a launch-pad and a reliable 10:00 show helped them to appear less fraudulent than they were for much of the fall. And the other two are headed for lengthy runs.
