February 17-March 12 Games:
| Date | Show(s) | OU/Spread | Result | Winner | W | L | D |
| Feb. 17 | Revenge | 1.85 | 1.8 | Under | 2 | 11 | |
| Feb. 19 | Body of Proof | 1.85 | 1.2 | Under | 5 | 10 | |
| Feb. 19 | Cult | 0.55 | 0.3 | Under | 5 | 9 | |
| Feb. 26 | Golden Boy | 2.25 | 1.8 | Under | 6 | 8 | |
| Mar. 3 | Apprentice vs. Red Widow | CA by 0.25 | CA 1.7 to 1.5 | RW +0.25 | 7 | 4 | |
| Mar. 5 | Celebrity Wife Swap | 1.95 | 1.5 | Under | 7 | 3 | |
| Mar. 8 | Fashion Star + Grimm | 2.45 | 2.3 | Under | 5 | 7 | |
| Mar. 11 | The Bachelor | 3.25 | 3.5 | Over | 9 | 2 | |
| Mar. 12 | Hell's Kitchen | 2.25 | 2.2 | Under | 0 | 12 | |
| TOTAL | 46 | 66 | 0 | ||||
| SEASON | 451 | 400 | 18 |
Previous weeks' results:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | thru 11/14 | thru 12/10 | thru 12/20 | thru 1/17 | thru 1/31 | thru 2/14
Season-to-date standings through March 12:
| W | L | D | Pts | Win% | Over | Under | Over% | |
| Billie_Dawn | 45 | 29 | 2 | 52.6 | 61% | 37 | 30 | 55% |
| Chris L | 40 | 28 | 1 | 46.9 | 59% | 40 | 22 | 65% |
| Survivor Fan | 39 | 28 | 1 | 45.8 | 58% | 28 | 32 | 47% |
| James "One" Shade | 37 | 33 | 1 | 44.1 | 53% | 28 | 35 | 44% |
| CarShark | 35.5 | 31 | 1 | 42.3 | 53% | 32 | 28 | 53% |
| Jack Sargeson | 35 | 32 | 1 | 41.8 | 52% | 28 | 33 | 46% |
| Igwell Predicts | 32 | 34 | 2 | 38.8 | 48% | 33 | 27 | 55% |
| DavidK | 27.5 | 33 | 2 | 33.8 | 45% | 32 | 24 | 57% |
| omabin | 28 | 27 | 1 | 33.6 | 51% | 26 | 23 | 53% |
| Silvio | 24 | 22 | 1 | 28.7 | 52% | 16 | 26 | 38% |
| Gavin Hetherington | 18 | 16 | 0 | 21.4 | 53% | 20 | 11 | 65% |
| Luke | 14 | 21 | 1 | 17.6 | 40% | 25 | 8 | 76% |
| vamperstien | 10 | 10 | 1 | 12.1 | 50% | 14 | 5 | 74% |
| Oliver | 10 | 7 | 1 | 11.8 | 59% | 12 | 4 | 75% |
| nb | 10 | 6 | 0 | 11.6 | 63% | 7 | 8 | 47% |
| A | 8 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 44% | 12 | 3 | 80% |
| yankeesrj12 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 9.8 | 44% | 12 | 5 | 71% |
| Engelbert | 8 | 6 | 0 | 9.4 | 57% | 7 | 5 | 58% |
| Nicholas Nuccio | 8 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 | 67% | 3 | 8 | 27% |
| Klaus Gepp | 8 | 3 | 0 | 9.1 | 73% | 7 | 3 | 70% |
| RandyL | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.6 | 17% | 4 | 1 | 80% |
| Mike Stein | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.4 | 25% | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| Emily | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Rurry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| ABC Hater | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Danny Robertson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| wlm | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0% |
As I mentioned in a past post, the correct result is "Under" about 59% of the time. It had started to even out after I last wrote that, but the long string of unders seen above got it back to that percentage. My goal is to get the results at about 50/50, but it's tough these days not to lean optimistic.
Though the results lean under, the actual correlation between win % and over/under % is pretty weak. The top players have a pretty wide variety of Over/Under % choices, and Chris L is in second place despite being one of the most optimistic. Not sure if any of this is actual "analysis," I just found it kind of interesting.
Some time in the future I will add in "win % when picking over" and "win % when picking under."
Points = Wins + 0.1 * Games.
The "half-wins" are for entries to sports games after the start of the event.
10 comments:
The result for Hell's Kitchen this past week is hilarious. Is that the only time this whole year that it's been a complete strikeout across the board?
Strangely enough there have been three games in which the field was unanimous, and all three times they were unanimously wrong. The other two were the Emily Owens premiere (Oct. 16) and The Voice finale (Dec. 18).
What can I say? Having a sunny deposition is working out for me. :)
I think in my case some of The Questions where I would have picked under (like the Hawaii Five-O one) I ended up not playing because I was away on vacation.
Hmm, interesting. Now I want to wait until there's another unanimous field and vote against it, just for kicks. One of those high risk/high reward scenarios.
Are the results only based on overnight ratings, as Hell's Kitchen adjusted up to 2.3 in finals. But still it's great to see how well I'm doing, though I've lost the past number of games.
It had a 2.3 in the 9:00 hour but 2.1 at 8. That still averages to 2.2.
Can you add how many total games there have been, as I would like to see both how many times I forgot to pick and how I would be doing had I remembered to pick?
Anyway, I have had a lot of fun with this game!
I'm totally biased, usually choosing over for FOX and cable, and under for ABC, NBC, and CBS.
By my count, 77.
Hi, is there any way to get my The Question stats transferred to my Disqus account from my Google account? My account is under "Nick" and I currently have a The Middle picture (although I change that every few weeks).
Post a Comment