The Question, Monday 3/11/13: Will ABC Have One Final Rosy Monday?

Tonight ABC's saying something we never expected they'd say: "Dammit! Why does Dancing with the Stars have to come back next week?!" While DWTS struggled in the low-2's last fall, ABC's actually fared much better in its usually problematic winter months, as The Bachelor has pulled upper-2's throughout the second half of the season and consistently outrated competing The Biggest Loser. It seems almost certain The Bachelor's finale night will be the strongest Monday ABC has this season. Will ABC have one final rosy Monday? That's The Question for Monday, March 11, 2013.

The Bachelor In Recent Weeks	The Bachelor Finale Last Season
3.0 (Monday 2/18/13, +20% year-to-year) 2.9 (Monday 2/25/13, +12%) 2.8 (Monday 3/4/13, +12%)	2.9 (Monday 3/12/12) +16% vs. penultimate airing (2.5)

While the season as a whole remains up by just 4%, that has been much more favorable down the stretch as it's gotten compared against episodes that had to deal with The Voice last year. +12% was the year-to-year trend the last two Mondays, and translating that to last year's 2.9 finale puts us right at 3.25. (Or you could just do the same math in the other direction: apply last year's 16% finale spike to this year's 2.8 penultimate episode and we're right at 3.25.) Bones and most of the CBS comedies are in repeats, so I don't see the trend worsening tonight, especially since this show has often taken even bigger finale jumps historically.

I thought about combining the finale and the 10:00 After the Final Rose special, which usually rates even higher than the finale. It had a 3.3 last year. But I decided that would get a bit too complicated. You can pick that one in the comments if motivated. This will just be for the two-hour finale.

Over/Under (finale only): 3.25.

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