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Friday, March 8, 2013

CW True Power Rankings, March 2013


It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and, new in this edition, excluding most season finales). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through March 3.

Other March True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Big Three
1The Vampire Diaries1.391.20515
2Arrow1.131.00616
3Supernatural1.000.93616

The CW's Arrow/Supernatural Wednesday will become an interesting site for the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" debate. Arrow is a very rare CW show with true lead-in potential. My usual policy is that the pairings most likely to stay together are the "good not great" ones, and I'm pretty sure this one is "great" by the current CW standards. So I think they'd be best off airing something new after Arrow. But Arrow is not such a runaway hit that I have extreme confidence in that position. (In other words, it's still probably not that much stronger than a local programming lead-in.)

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Still In Play
4Hart of Dixie0.580.57616
5Beauty and the Beast0.550.60514
6America's Next Top Model0.550.50411
8Nikita0.450.38411
9The Carrie Diaries0.450.4337

May not really look it from this list, but I'm confident Hart of Dixie has a significant lead on the rest of this group, if for no other reason than it's a lot less schizophrenic. It's getting hard to imagine it'll fall behind everything else in this group.

Beauty and the Beast is probably not as safe as it appears; its number is inflated by the two 0.7's at the beginning of the five episodes being averaged, and it's since returned to 0.5. But it's not dead either. It'll be a down-to-the-wire job like The Secret Circle. 

Nikita has been similarly schizophrenic. It looked like it had gotten to "legitimately in the mix" levels when it was getting 0.5, but it's fallen back to a 0.3 for the last two weeks, which I don't think is enough to put it "legitimately in the mix" even with a Friday adjustment. I'm morbidly kind of hoping it sticks at 0.3 because I'm very invested in seeing true tests of the importance of syndication.

That leaves The Carrie Diaries, which is not looking good lately. At this point in time, I would guess it's the most likely cancel of the bunch, but I still give it a chance because it might be a good Hart of Dixie companion on the inevitable Surrender Night.

I'm guessing only one show of the four bubblers gets the axe, but it wouldn't shock me if it were zero or two.

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
7Gossip Girl0.470.4339
10Emily Owens M.D.0.370.36513
11902100.350.32515
12Cult0.310.3012

Gossip Girl is another show like 30 Rock from the NBC post that is still somewhat inflated even after I take out the finale, because it had a very good penultimate episode too. Really, it was around an 0.40 for most of the season.

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