The Question, Wednesday 2/13/13: Will This Survivor Season be a Fan Favorite?

Tonight, slumping Survivor returns after dropping 14% in spring 2012 and 15% in the fall. This season marks the return of the "Fans vs. Favorites" concept. For most reality shows, all-star seasons haven't been all that big a deal ratings-wise. Survivor is arguably an exception; the first all-star season in 2004 was the only significantly up year-to-year season in Survivor history (the Super Bowl exposure may have helped too), and even the first Fans vs. Favorites season in 2008 helped slow the bleeding amid one of Survivor's previous slumps. Will this Survivor season be a fan favorite? That's The Question for Wednesday, Feburary 13, 2013.

Recent Survivor Premieres/Avgs/Finales

4.5/3.91/4.2 (spring 2010) 4.0/3.68/4.1 (fall 2010) 3.2/3.28/4.0 (spring 2011) 3.4/3.35/4.0 (fall 2011) 3.1/2.83/2.9 (spring 2012) 3.2/2.86/3.2 (fall 2012)

The Fox press release might get to tout another "lowest-rated Survivor premiere ever," if only because American Idol is tougher competition than fall's The X Factor. But Idol is not as tough as it was last year, so I'm expecting the bleeding to slow for Survivor this season, maybe as much because of that as because of the all-star season. I'm guessing tonight will be right at last spring's premiere or a tick lower.

Over/Under: 3.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.