| Community Last Season | Previous 8:00 Occupant 30 Rock |
| 1.7/1.54/1.3 (premiere/average finale) | 1.4/1.37/1.9 (premiere/average/finale) 1.8/1.54/1.4 (last season) |
The funny thing about this comparison is that Community and 30 Rock were virtually the same show ratings-wise in 2011-12. So 30 Rock's 1.4 premiere in the fall should be a good starting point for this prediction. The fanbase is so engaged on Community that new showrunners may actually bring some additional interest, but tougher competition (American Idol) and a weaker NBC than when 30 Rock premiered in October likely cancel that out, and maybe more than cancel it out.
Over/Under: 1.35.
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13 comments:
Over. Narrowly.
Its brutal timeslot is probably the toughest on television, but it's nothing new. Sitting next to Parks should help it a little, especially compared with 30 Rock which was trapped next to Up All Night in fall.
That said, I think the new showrunners (and subsequent weak reviews) will hurt rather than help the show. If Harmon was still around then Community would benefit from fan enthusiasm and effusive critical press, much as it did at mid-season last year. Instead, the more muted reaction has starved the show of the publicity that has been its life-blood.
Over. A 1.4
Over. I'm going to invoke the "Glee rule" and say that next week disappoints but week one is solid.
Over, though I debated Under for a long time.
Community is a tough cookie to figure out. Its ratings are always horrible, but it seems to come out of the gate strong (well, for NBC standards).
I'm going to go Over on this one. 1.4.
Ugh. I guess I'll take the over on the hope that the fanbase is still hungry for the show and will ignore the middling reviews and decide to watch for themselves. 1.7 is my guess.
Under. N.B.Flee
I'm split. On one hand, absence helped Community's ratings grow fonder last season as it hit its season high coming back from hiatus. And Community has stayed in the news. Unfortunately, it's been more for off-screen problems than raves about the quality of the show. Plus this is an 8 month hiatus versus a 3 month one with not even reruns to remind people that the show is still on.
So far, I think two things are at work here with the bets so far: unbridled optimism for Community's fans and/or a Line that's a tenth too low to evoke splits. Since I checked out of the show mid-season 2 (courtesy of a DVR pile-up), the latter is the rationale for my choice.
Over.
I'll guess it comes back even with last season's finale. Under.
Over
Over.
Under-1.3
I felt pretty good about 1.4 but decided to err on the side of pessimism. As usual I am comically incompetent at reading the room.
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