The Question, Wednesday 1/16/13: The Idol Slide'll Be How Big?

Tonight, we get one of the most important data points of the season in TV ratings: the American Idol premiere. It may also be the most important Idol premiere ever, because there's a lot of uncertainty about where this show is headed. Will it hold up well and remain a megahit "Death Star"? Or will it take another nearly one-third step down, the way it did last year? With another 50+ hours on tap, the answer to this question is hugely important for Fox. The Idol slide'll be how big? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 16, 2013.

American Idol Last Season	The X Factor In Timeslot This Fall
7.4 (premiere, 1/18/12, -24% year-to-year) 5.33 (Wednesday average, -32%) 4.89 (Thursday average, -31%) 6.4 (finale, 5/23/12, -30%)	3.4 (premiere, 9/12/12, -23% year-to-year) 2.92 (Wednesday average, -23%) 2.79 (Thursday average, -22%) 3.1 (finale, 12/20/12, -18%)

So my prediction for the full season was that Idol would be down 21%, just about in line with what The X Factor did this fall. I don't particularly think any of the new Idol judges are huge gets, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say Idol does a little better than that -21% for the premiere. The X Factor premiered this fall at a few ticks behind the previous season's finale, so I'll say Idol does that as well.

Over/Under: 6.15.

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