| American Idol Last Season | The X Factor In Timeslot This Fall |
| 7.4 (premiere, 1/18/12, -24% year-to-year) 5.33 (Wednesday average, -32%) 4.89 (Thursday average, -31%) 6.4 (finale, 5/23/12, -30%) | 3.4 (premiere, 9/12/12, -23% year-to-year) 2.92 (Wednesday average, -23%) 2.79 (Thursday average, -22%) 3.1 (finale, 12/20/12, -18%) |
So my prediction for the full season was that Idol would be down 21%, just about in line with what The X Factor did this fall. I don't particularly think any of the new Idol judges are huge gets, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say Idol does a little better than that -21% for the premiere. The X Factor premiered this fall at a few ticks behind the previous season's finale, so I'll say Idol does that as well.
Over/Under: 6.15.
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11 comments:
Under. I could easily see it fall at least a point and a half to a 5.9.
Over.
Though I dislike all kind of reality shows, and nothing would pleased me more than Idol going 90% down.
But ... I don't expect free fall for two seasons in a row, I have kind of a zig-zag theory in mind here. Second, The Voice returns only in March, so Idol has undivided attention of singing competitions audience.
Under. I don't know who the new judges are.
Under
I'll go with over. Mariah & Nicki should draw enough interest even if the latter especially seems to divide opinion.
@ig:disqus
"Under. I don't know who the new judges are."
Sorry if this sounds rude, but you don't know who Mariah Carey is?
Per the intel bestowed upon me by last night's Bones, one of them is Nicki Minaj. I think.
Over. But I think it will be close.
Under 5.6 (Thursday results shows will struggle to even get a 3.0)
Over at 6.5. Monstrous yes, but the decline continues.
No, I just missed the announcement, like One guessed.
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