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Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Question, Thursday 1/31/13: Will NBC Do Even More Harm to Thursday?


Nothing invites historical ratings comparisons and "death of TV" memes quite like NBC Thursday. And tonight, NBC gets back into the medical drama business in the timeslot occupied for a decade and a half by ER. Since ER left Thursday 10/9c, NBC's tried really hard ("next great cop shows" like Southland and Prime Suspect), tried not at all (The Jay Leno Show, Rock Center) and tried just about everything else, including a third comedy hour. Nothing has stuck, and I don't see much reason to believe critically-reviled Do No Harm will buck the trend. Will NBC do even more harm to Thursday? That's The Question for Thursday, January 31, 2013.

The Office Lead-in In Recent Weeks Recent NBC Drama Premieres
2.2 (Thursday 1/10/13)
2.1 (Thursday 1/17/13)
2.0 (Thursday 1/24/13)
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 The Voice)
1.9 (Chicago Fire, 10/10/12, 1.9 SVU)
2.0 (Deception, 1/7/13, 2.6 Biggest Loser)

Back when we thought 1600 Penn would be the Do No Harm lead-in on premiere night, I felt confident Do No Harm was headed for sub-The Mob Doctor premiere numbers. It could still happen. But replacing Penn with a second original The Office should give the show a reasonable lead-in, and that should be worth a little bit of a boost. Dramas usually haven't premiered that well out of the comedy block, and the promos and reception for this show have been pretty laughable. Starting as well as last year's Awake would be a win, and I'm not seeing a win.

Over/Under: 1.55.

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