| Scandal in Recent Weeks | The Idol Effect on ABC Wednesday |
| 2.2 (11/29/12, Grey's 3.1) 2.5 (12/6/12, Grey's 3.0) 2.4 (12/13/12, Grey's 2.9) 2.8 (1/10/13, Grey's 3.2) | -8% (9:30 Suburgatory week-to-week) +5% (10:00 Nashville week-to-week) |
I really wanted to do this Question when I saw the prelim ratings last week. I recoiled a bit when Grey's Anatomy got adjusted up to a 3.2 in the finals, thinking it might be a bit too much of a stretch. But having seen what happened on Wednesday with Nashville, a drama we can probably agree is not quite as "hot" as Scandal, I decided to just roll with it. Nashville went up another tick despite its lead-in Suburgatory dropping by two-tenths. So that's a +0.3 net, and Scandal was just 0.4 behind Grey's last week.
Here's the case: Grey's Anatomy has a lot more competition tonight from American Idol, and it's a show that overlaps with Idol's audience to a reasonably large degree. (It took a huge drop when it faced a two-hour Idol on 2/16/12.) Scandal, meanwhile, sees its only real broadcast competition (Elementary) go into repeats, and it may be able to benefit from all the viewers that are available at 10:00 after watching a high-rated Fox.
0.4 is still a big gap, and Idol (probably) won't be as big tonight as last night. But if it doesn't happen tonight, I think it'll be close. It's lined up pretty much as perfectly as possible for Scandal.
Spread: Grey's Anatomy beats Scandal by 0.05 points.
(Reply with "Grey's Anatomy" if you think Grey's Anatomy BEATS Scandal. Reply with "Scandal" if you think Scandal TIES or BEATS Grey's Anatomy. The result will be based on finals rounded to one decimal point.)
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
11 comments:
Scandal (with more chance of it being a tie)
Grey's Anatomy
Grey's Anatomy
Grey's Anatomy. That said, no one should be using me as a basis right now - my luck's been shit for the last few of these.
Grey's Anatomy.
Grey's Anatomy.
It will be down but so will Scandal.
Grey's Anatomy
GA: 2.9
S: 2.7
Grey's Anatomy
If Grey's dropped 20% like last year, it would still beat every Scandal broadcast except last week's. Assuming a weaker Idol and a greater dependence on its lead-in, it has to be Grey's.
Grey's Anatomy.
On a slightly unrelated note, isn't it interesting that every year headlines are made about how far Idol has fallen from its halcyon days, but the same isn't done for Grey's. It's reached the same heights as AI, but it was still pretty high nonetheless. For three and a half years, it never went below 7.0, now it rarely gets half that.
Scandal (2.8 tie)
I am 2-0 this week, despite picking against the vast majority both times. Let's make it 3 for 3!
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