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Saturday, January 19, 2013

The Question, Sunday 1/20/13: Will Hawaii Five-0 Ride the NFL Wave?


The timeslot after the primetime NFL conference championship game gets much less scrutiny than the post-Super Bowl slot. But the NFL is so monstrous that the hour provides an extremely significant boost. So, you know, why not give it to a third-year drama that's already had the slot and doesn't have much growth potential? Sunday, CBS will put Hawaii Five-0 back into the post-AFC Championship slot and then air another original the next night. Will Hawaii Five-0 ride the NFL wave? That's The Question for Sunday, January 20, 2013.

Hawaii Five-0 This Season vs. 2010-11 Post-Championship Game Shows
2.17 (average through 12 eps)
2.3 -> 2.3 -> 2.5 -> 2.4 -> 2.4 (last 5)
3.09 (average thru 14 2010-11 eps)
3.3 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.9 -> 2.9 (last 5)
7.9 (American Idol, 1/22/12, game 21.4)
5.6 (Hawaii Five-0, 1/23/11, game 19.7)
4.6 (The Mentalist, 1/18/09, game 14.7)
4.7 (Without a Trace, 1/21/07, game 17.6)
9.2 (Numb3rs preview, 1/23/05, game 17.6)

These ratings are often more about the game than about what the show does in its regular timeslot. The Mentalist was getting bigger raw numbers in 2008-09 than Five-0 in 2010-11, but the game being five points bigger made a difference. Still, being a strong show matters too, as Idol proved last year.

CBS didn't get the dream AFC Championship matchup (Patriots/Broncos, AKA Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning), but Patriots/Ravens is still pretty good; it's a rematch of last year's game and a potential last hurrah for linebacker legend Ray Lewis. I'll guess it does better than the Five-0 lead-in from two years ago, Jets/Steelers, but a bit below Fox's Giants/49ers classic last year. Since Five-0 is not a new show anymore, it may not benefit quite as much from the exposure, but action-oriented Five-0 is still a pretty good fit with a football game. Overall, I'll say it adds up to about what it got two years ago.

Over/Under: 5.55.

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