- NBC Wednesday finally went original against American Idol, and it wasn't pretty. Whitney tied its low (excluding Thanksgiving Eve), Guys with Kids tied its low (INCLUDING Thanksgiving Eve) and once-surging Law and Order: SVU reverted to its typical level for most of the fall. Chicago Fire, the one that didn't face Idol, held up best against ABC/CBS repeats.
- Most of the usual Wednesday leaders sat out the last day before sweeps, so American Idol continued to hold on nicely. (It made it into negative single-digits territory year-to-year, though this was another of the dreaded two-hour vs. one-hour comparisons.) ABC mixed low-rated originals of The Neighbors and Suburgatory in with repeats of their anchor shows, while CBS was repeat in the last two hours but even year-to-year at 8/7c with their annual Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special. The CW had a somewhat worrying drop from Arrow (0.9).
- Proving my ratings predictions are at their best when I use the "shot in the dark" approach, The Americans (3.22 million viewers and a 1.2) had a solid premiere for FX. They've done better in recent years (Justified (1.5) and American Horror Story (1.6)) but they've also done much, much worse (Lights Out (0.6) and Terriers (0.5)). This is definitely a very workable start.
FULL TABLE:
| Info | Show | Timeslot | True2 | ||||||
| Viewers | A18-49 | Last | LeLa | Rank | y2y | TLa | Ty2y | ||
| The Middle (R) | 5.51 | 1.3 | -48% | +8% | 1.36 | ||||
| The Neighbors | 5.27 | 1.6 | -20% | -48% | 13/14 | n/a | -20% | +33% | 1.86 |
| Modern Family (R) | 6.14 | 2.2 | -48% | -19% | 2.26 | ||||
| Suburgatory | 4.73 | 1.8 | -18% | -48% | 11/11 | n/a | -18% | -5% | 1.94 |
| Nashville (R) | 3.01 | 0.9 | -51% | +0% | 1.00 | ||||
| Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials | 9.65 | 2.0 | +0% | +38% | +0% | 2.10 | |||
| Criminal Minds (R) | 6.94 | 1.6 | -48% | -24% | 1.68 | ||||
| CSI (R) | 7.22 | 1.5 | -43% | +0% | 1.69 | ||||
| Whitney | 3.64 | 1.3 | -7% | n/a | 5/7 | -24% | +63% | -24% | 1.36 |
| Guys with Kids | 2.93 | 1.1 | -15% | -7% | 12/13 | n/a | +57% | -35% | 1.33 |
| Law and Order: SVU | 6.42 | 1.7 | -19% | -15% | 6/11 | n/a | +143% | +48% | 1.95 |
| Chicago Fire | 7.31 | 2.1 | -5% | -19% | 4/13 | n/a | +163% | +27% | 2.31 |
| American Idol Wed | 15.78 | 5.5 | +0% | n/a | 2/3 | -8% | +0% | +25% | 5.14 |
| Arrow | 2.97 | 0.9 | -18% | n/a | 12/12 | n/a | -14% | +20% | 0.99 |
| Supernatural | 2.12 | 0.9 | +0% | -18% | 5/12 | +13% | +6% | +200% | 0.91 |
KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.
(R) - Repeat.
Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.
More Spotted Ratings in the Index.
4 comments:
I forget -- when do the ratings begin to fall across-the-board: in February, after February sweeps, or when Daylight Savings Time drops in mid-March?
Usually, it's mid-Feb, right after the Grammys. But I think the universe has it in for both the business model and my personal favorites.
Yes! How could I forget The Great Valentine's Ratings Mystery of 2012!
I don't know about your shot in the dark approach: your Question about The Biggest Loser's Sunday premiere kind of missed the mark. :)
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