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Thursday, January 3, 2013

NBC True Power Rankings, January 2013


It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




NBC ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo Elite
1The Office2.222.0339

It's been awhile since a show so clearly at the top of its network's totem pole in a category came to an end. Even former beasts like House, Desperate Housewives, Smallville, Heroes and ER were pretty much even with if not well behind some other drama on the network by the time they ended. But The Office is pretty clearly the strongest NBC comedy (since Go On has a three-point lead-in advantage) and it's over.

NBC ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Hmmmmm...
2Go On1.652.30410
3Parks and Recreation1.571.5339
4Guys with Kids1.431.28410
5Whitney1.421.3524
6The New Normal1.411.68411
7Up All Night1.371.10411

And what's left in the NBC sitcom department has to be pretty frightening for NBC. I hate to be one of those pundits Nate Silver makes fun of, but... everything's a "toss-up." Whichever way the development wind is blowing, NBC could find a marginal sitcom or two out of this bunch that would pair up with it.

The only strong likelihood is that Go On will be renewed. It actually looks somewhat deserving right now, following a couple good weeks leading into the winter break.

Though Parks is (barely) the strongest show of the five remaining, it will not benefit from the crumbling of the NBC Thursday tradition on other fronts (Office, 30 Rock both ending). The New Normal probably has a better shot than the Wednesday multicams, but I don't think it should. There is really no separation among those three shows right now. Perhaps this will all end with me making an impassioned plea for a Whitney renewal, just like last year. But right now, it's hard to make much of an impassioned plea for anything.

I fully expect Community will join this bunch, and 1600 Penn probably has no chance to go any higher than this group. Based on its preview ratings on December 17, it'd be happy to find itself on the bubble.

NBC ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
830 Rock1.211.2038
9Animal Practice1.121.1525




NBC DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1Revolution2.302.73410
2Grimm1.921.78412
3Parenthood1.911.83411
4Chicago Fire1.771.65410
5Law and Order: SVU1.701.5338

Who'd have thunk coming into this fall that of NBC's five fall dramas, SVU would be the least safe of the five by the end of the fall??? I'm sure it won't end up at the very bottom of the drama totem pole by season's end. NBC still has midseason dramas to come, and at least one will probably fail miserably. But even if it's near the bottom, one would think NBC would probably be willing to move on from a show this old and thus expensive.

However, as I said in the Upfront Revisited post, I'd probably bring back all these shows if the season ended today. They're currently power-ranked ahead of all the potentially returning comedies.




NBC UnscriptedTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1The Voice Mon3.633.96515
2The Voice Tue3.613.85616
3Dateline Fri1.681.36514
4Take It All1.571.3026
5Rock Center1.120.94513

I guess the only question mark here is whether holiday strip Take It All will return. I say if they didn't renew last year's Who's Still Standing? then they definitely won't renew this. It couldn't do better than low-1's on its own, and it's much more overtly holiday-themed than something like WSS? (which conceivably could've been tried in the summer or something).

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