Fox True Power Rankings, January 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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Fox Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Elite
1	Family Guy	2.72	2.73	3	9
2	American Dad!	2.12	2.13	3	7
3	New Girl	2.03	2.08	4	11
4	The Simpsons	1.99	2.80	3	8

OK, so I don't actually think Dad! is a stronger show than The Simpsons. This is mostly because of some recent Sunday chaos. Dad! got a big boost from its new episode on December 23rd (when it held pretty steady due to NFL overrun support, but overall viewing was extremely low), while The Simpsons got knocked down by its terrible result on the Sunday that was in part mucked up by the presidential address from Newtown. By the next one of these, The Simpsons will probably reclaim the #2 spot among Fox comedies. The big takeaway is that it does look like American Dad! has separated a bit from the other bottom-of-the-hour animations on Fox.

Fox Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
Two Safes and a Bubble
5	Raising Hope	1.61	1.60	4	10
6	The Cleveland Show	1.54	1.50	2	6
7	Bob's Burgers	1.51	1.80	3	9

Unless Fox decides they're almost completely bailing on live action comedy, they're probably bringing back Raising Hope. Bob's Burgers is already renewed. Since those are safe, it might follow that The Cleveland Show should be safe... yet it doesn't seem to be. It has no lead-in and airs against the tail end of the CBS late afternoon NFL games, and its ratings aren't that much worse than the other two shows, but it could wind up a casualty.

Fox Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
Tuesday Blues
8	The Mindy Project	1.33	1.43	3	9
9	Ben and Kate	1.18	1.18	4	10

Almost every time these two shows have aired on the same night, they have virtually identical True2 scores. In fact, B&K is often ever so slightly ahead. Yet somehow the averages always show Mindy with a reasonable lead. It seems B&K does awful whenever it airs without Mindy and Mindy does decently whenever B&K doesn't air. Maybe they will air on the same night enough in the winter that they'll get evened out.

As I've said a million times, I believe the ratings would pretty much flip if the timeslots flipped. And while I say that hoping it will be a good thing for Ben and Kate, it's really mostly just a bad thing for Mindy. Bringing either of these shows back seems highly iffy, even on a network without much depth.

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Fox Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Not Dunzo
1	Glee	2.07	1.98	4	10
2	Bones	1.89	2.10	3	9

Fox Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Dunzo
3	Fringe	1.24	0.98	4	10
4	The Mob Doctor	0.92	0.93	3	9

The drama mess on Fox has been re-hashed enough on this blog. From where we sit right now, it's hard to imagine Glee or Bones not continuing. The Following is shaping up as a pretty high-stakes show for Fox as a network.

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Fox Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	The X Factor Thu	2.78	2.70	5	13
2	The X Factor Wed	2.71	2.66	5	15
3	Kitchen Nightmares	1.41	1.15	2	6

Kitchen Nightmares started the season in horrific fashion and has quietly worked its way upward since. With Fox having a lot of uncertainty on Friday over the long term, I'd guess Nightmares will continue to be a part of it.