White House comedy 1600 Penn began its regular timeslot run on January 10 with a 1.6 demo, dropping from the 2.2 of its The Office lead-in. That's one of the season's lowest-rated premieres, and it was below the average of previous timeslot occupant Parks and Recreation in its post-Office stints. The competition wasn't exactly full strength; Fox had a repeat of Glee. Considering Parks and Rec was not exactly a slam-dunk show in its 9:30 run, to start below its average on premiere night is not good.
WEEK TWO
The competition ramped up in week two, as 1600 Penn had to face the tail end of American Idol's Thursday premiere. And 1600 Penn couldn't take it; it dropped 25% to a 1.2, which was multiple ticks below Parks' lowest point in the slot this fall. Meanwhile, the rest of the NBC comedy lineup held up OK against Idol; lead-in The Office was down just a tenth to a 2.1, and Parks and Rec actually hit a season high (1.9) in its move to 8:30. So blaming very much of this drop on Idol is a little shaky.
PROGNOSIS
1600 Penn had one of the season's worst premiere numbers, then it followed it up with a well above average week two drop. That makes this one pretty easy. The Idol competition is noteworthy; it looks like it will drop less than the 25% in True2. But it's not noteworthy enough to take a sinking ship and make it float. Cancel.
"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.
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