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Friday, January 4, 2013

CW True Power Rankings, January 2013


It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Big Three
1The Vampire Diaries1.451.3039
2Arrow1.181.1339
3Supernatural0.830.9039

The gap between the "big three" and everything else on the CW's roster is rather huge. Unfortunately, this isn't the NBA, where you can play these hours more and hide the other ones. Each hour counts the same.

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
We Have to Fill Ten Hours...
4Gossip Girl0.580.53410
5Hart of Dixie0.550.53410
6902100.530.5339
7America's Next Top Model Fall0.520.50412
8Beauty and the Beast0.510.5739
9Nikita0.440.4026

90210 looked disastrous early, but it's managed to creep up to the top of this marginal group. So it and Hart of Dixie both look pretty safe, with a final season announcement likely for Nine-0. If The Carrie Diaries flounders, I could see Hart and 90210 being paired together and filling a night in the fall. It'd be another night of surrender, much like Monday was this fall, but the network simply does not have the luxury of not having a night of surrender. Consolidating the low-ratedness on one night and doing something new on Tuesday would at least be another positive step.

The "bubble" really starts with Beauty and the Beast and ends with Nikita. As I said in the Upfront Revisited, they'd pretty much have to renew BatB if the season ended today, as bad as it looks. They've got their fingers crossed for midseason. And Nikita, which early in the season looked like it might be the Ultimate Test of Syndication Importance, has started to look a little more reasonable since its move to 8/7c. If it can sustain 0.4's at 8/7c, I wouldn't be shocked to see it right back in the ratings mix at season's end, as it was last year.

Perhaps in the next edition I will tweak the formula to throw out finales, because the finale and to some extent the penultimate episode are really the only reasons why Gossip Girl is in this tier at all, much less on top of it. Throw out the finale and take the three pre-finale episodes and the average is 0.47. And it's just 0.40 across episodes six, seven and eight.

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
10Emily Owens M.D.0.350.3737

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