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Wednesday, January 2, 2013

CBS True Power Rankings, January 2013


It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows. This week, I'll offer a few thoughts on individual shows as part of the preview of midseason.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." Due to Nielsen holiday delays, we don't have everything from last week, so these numbers are all through December 23. But since almost nothing aired in originals last week, that mostly doesn't make a difference.

Other January True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW




CBS ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Three of Top Four, Five of Top Eight Scripted
1The Big Bang Theory5.135.45411
22 Broke Girls3.413.63412
3Two and a Half Men3.344.05411
4Mike and Molly2.933.23410
5How I Met Your Mother2.913.25411

With How I Met Your Mother renewed, the next stop in CBS' winter of negotiation is getting Two and a Half Men back. If that happens, we can start having the "Will CBS add a comedy hour?" discussion again. I'm sure you can't wait...

CBS ComediesTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
6Partners1.471.9526




CBS DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Elite
1NCIS3.053.18410
2Criminal Minds2.852.93411
3Person of Interest2.682.95410

Person of Interest is another of the sophomore shows like Suburgatory and Revenge that got really favorable scheduling and hasn't quite lived up to what seemed like the potential. And that's created a negative narrative in some circles: "They put Two and a Half Men at 8:30 and yet PoI is struggling to pull Criminal Minds numbers!"

And as with Suburgatory, I don't really disagree. Still, it looks like this show has the most potential to be a long-term elite player of any drama CBS has developed in the last half decade or more. They've proven extremely capable of developing a drama for the second tier on an almost yearly basis, but they haven't had a truly elite drama come along since Minds.

CBS DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Second Tier
4Hawaii Five-02.442.38411
5NCIS: Los Angeles2.412.83410
6Elementary2.212.23410
7CSI2.202.43410

Perhaps the comeback story of the last couple months has been Hawaii Five-0, which began disastrously but has quietly worked its way from upper-1's to the nearly mid-2's level at which it currently resides. Would've been real interesting to see what CBS would've done with this show if it'd stayed at those horrific early levels, but it doesn't look like we'll get a chance to see. It will last long enough for a proper-sized syndication package, and it will deserve to last that long.

CBS DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Bubble
8Blue Bloods1.671.4739
9The Mentalist1.621.68410
10Vegas1.531.63410
11CSI: NY1.521.45410
12The Good Wife1.411.70410

Since the last analysis-filled edition of these, an incredibly wide gulf has opened up between the second tier and the bubble, leaving little doubt about what's totally safe and what's marginal. Like last year, when I was advising comedy expansion, I'd be pretty liberal with the cancellations here. Blue Bloods is close enough to syndication that I'm pretty sure it's sticking around. Beyond that, I'm not sure I'd keep anything, but I have a feeling at least one of The Mentalist and The Good Wife will find a reprieve.

CBS DramasTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
13Made in Jersey0.480.3026

Does the head-to-head loss for Made in Jersey against The Mob Doctor affirm that MiJ was the biggest flop of the season? Well, TMD did have a much bigger lead-in from Cops, so from a ratings standpoint that result was close to a wash. But considering how much weaker Jersey was than all the other shows on its network, I'll give it the nod.




CBS UnscriptedTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
1Survivor Fall2.722.78514
2The Amazing Race Fall2.042.55411
360 Minutes1.862.93412
4Undercover Boss1.781.7025
548 Hours1.291.03410

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