Here they are sorted by C3 rating:
Thru Nov. 25 | L+SD | C3 | SD->C3 |
The Big Bang Theory | 5.03 | 4.97 | -1% |
Modern Family | 4.80 | 4.78 | -0% |
The Voice Mon | 4.48 | 4.27 | -5% |
The Voice Tue | 4.06 | 3.78 | -7% |
Two and a Half Men | 3.75 | 3.63 | -3% |
Grey's Anatomy | 3.52 | 3.63 | +3% |
Revolution | 3.11 | 3.34 | +7% |
Once Upon a Time | 3.29 | 3.33 | +1% |
2 Broke Girls | 3.40 | 3.31 | -3% |
NCIS | 3.41 | 3.29 | -4% |
And then by change from Live + SD to C3:
Thru Nov. 25 | L+SD | C3 | SD->C3 |
Revolution | 3.11 | 3.34 | +7% |
Grey's Anatomy | 3.52 | 3.63 | +3% |
Once Upon a Time | 3.29 | 3.33 | +1% |
Modern Family | 4.80 | 4.78 | -0% |
The Big Bang Theory | 5.03 | 4.97 | -1% |
2 Broke Girls | 3.40 | 3.31 | -3% |
Two and a Half Men | 3.75 | 3.63 | -3% |
NCIS | 3.41 | 3.29 | -4% |
The Voice Mon | 4.48 | 4.27 | -5% |
The Voice Tue | 4.06 | 3.78 | -7% |
As always, a key note is that the relative landscape does not change much. None of the top ten shows moved by more than 7% in either direction, and the majority of the shows were within 3%. If you simply assume the Live + SD numbers are equal to the C3 numbers, it will almost never be an egregious mistake.
But even within these small changes, a few tiers appear to develop. The sample size is small, so I will continue to refine this based on any additional info that comes in, but here's a rough guideline of how I see the translation from the more accessible Live+7 changes to the more important C3 changes:
The "extreme" DVRed shows (Revolution) get a C3 bump of 5% or a little more.
The "heavily" DVRed shows (Grey's, Once) get a C3 bump of less than 5%.
The "normally" DVRed shows (pretty much everything on CBS) see a small decline of less than 5% in C3.
And the "lightly" DVRed shows (The Voice) drop by 5% or a little more in the C3.
I've heard people posit that shows like The Voice get something of a premium because of the high concentration of live viewing within the Live + SD rating. But the C3 numbers suggest that this is more than cancelled out by the lack of interest across the subsequent three days.