The Climate, Week 13

Spotted Ratings, Holiday Roundup 12/24-12/27/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC won light-viewed Christmas Eve with It's a Wonderful Life, even year-to-year. ABC's Grinch evening won Christmas primetime with an assist from some overrun from ABC's afternoon NBA doubleheader. CBS took Wednesday with nice year-to-year growth from the always low-rated Kennedy Center Honors, then crushed on repeat-filled Thursday.

The Top 10 TV Ratings Moments of 2012, 5 to 1

It's time for my third annual spin on the year-end TV top ten list as I look back at the top ten moments of another year in TV ratings! This is always one of the most fun posts of the year, but it's also pretty nerve-racking, because I'm totally paranoid that I'll miss something. So feel free to note my most glaring omissions. Here's this year's 10 to 6, which went live yesterday.

Here are the two previous years:
2010: 10 to 6 | 5 to 1
2011: 10 to 6 | 5 to 1

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/23/12 (2012-13 Week Thirteen)

Though Sunday Night Football tied a season low in raw A18-49 numbers, it posted its fourth-highest True2 number of the season because of how low overall viewing was on the Sunday before Christmas. That gave it a very comfortable win over The Voice's finale in the week 13 True Top 25.

The networks aired quite a few holiday specials this week, but they were generally lower-priority offerings or specials that had already aired this year. So the top twenty spots still went to regular series, including six encores. Miss Universe led the specials pack at #21.

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 12/21-12/23/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• 1.0 ratings were a rarity on repeat- and special-laden Friday and Saturday. CBS resumed the Made in Jersey burn-off with the same 0.3's it pulled over the Thanksgiving weekend.

• The Christmas viewing downturn really picked up on Sunday the 23rd, a night nearly 20% less-viewed than the previous Sunday. NBC had a low-end Sunday Night Football thanks to lower viewing, a blowout and a West Coast matchup. Fox had the NFL overrun, which helped originals of Family Guy and American Dad! hang in there quite well despite the holiday-type viewing levels. (They'd been bumped from last week's schedule because of content deemed insensitive in light of the Newtown attacks.)

The Top 10 TV Ratings Moments of 2012, 10 to 6

It's time for my third annual spin on the year-end TV top ten list as I look back at the top ten moments of another year in TV ratings! This is always one of the most fun posts of the year, but it's also pretty nerve-racking, because I'm totally paranoid that I'll miss something. So once the second half of the list goes up in 24 hours, feel free to note my most glaring omissions.

Here are the two previous years:
2010: 10 to 6 | 5 to 1
2011: 10 to 6 | 5 to 1

As always, the criteria are pretty subjective, but I go for a blend of 1) relatively isolated incidents that carry cultural significance and 2) moments that exemplify much larger trends in TV this year. The headlines link back to my writings on these moments at the time they happened. Enjoy!

The Question Results Through 12/20/12

Here are the results and individual standings through December 20 for the ratings prediction game The Question:

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/20/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Like with The Voice earlier in the week, finale night on The X Factor fell about in line with the recent episodes on a year-to-year basis. The 3.1 demo was X's best number since early October and up nearly 30% from last Thursday, but it was still down 18% year-to-year.

• Specials on ABC and NBC fell in the mid-1's. ABC's Peanuts special was even year-to-year, but CMA Country Christmas took a significant hit.

The Climate, Week 12

2012 Upfront Revisited, The CW

The winter break is not quite at the calendar midpoint of the TV season, but it's as close to a "stopping point" as we're gonna get. So this week, as promised, I'm doing one rather lengthy post for each network looking back at how the moves made on the upfront schedules have worked out. Because I love sabotaging my own credibility, I will also revisit some of my thoughts on those moves at the time they happened. Then I'll have a larger-scale look at the ups/downs of the network's fall. Finally, I'll look ahead to the upcoming midseason schedule changes.

More Upfronts Revisited: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

The Question, Thursday 12/20/12: Will Fox's Fall End X-tradordinarily?

With only burnoffs and low-priority stuff airing for the next week and a half, I'm declaring tonight's The X Factor finale the unofficial end of the fall 2012 season. While NBC's success this fall has largely been about The Voice's success, Fox's struggles have largely been about The X Factor's struggles. The show limped out of the gate, appeared to bounce back temporarily, got derailed by baseball scheduling, and has only slightly recovered since then. Tonight, Fox hopes to send the show onto hiatus (and yet another revamp) on a redemptive note. Will Fox's fall end X-traordinarily? That's The Question for Thursday, December 20, 2012.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/19/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC had an above average Wednesday thanks to the Miss Universe Competition, up by two tenths from last year when it aired in a much different time of year (early September). It averaged a 2.3 in the final half hour, which (alongside the weaker CBS) no doubt helped vault Chicago Fire into another tie for its best without-Voice number.

• Finale week of The X Factor began with no week-to-week bounce, but that was the case on the final Wednesday of last season too.

• A few other random specials also aired; CBS' always old-skewing A Home for the Holidays dropped in finals to finish even with last year, while ABC's The Year with Katie Couric was up a tick year-to-year.

2012 Upfront Revisited, Fox

The winter break is not quite at the calendar midpoint of the TV season, but it's as close to a "stopping point" as we're gonna get. So this week, as promised, I'm doing one rather lengthy post for each network looking back at how the moves made on the upfront schedules have worked out. Because I love sabotaging my own credibility, I will also revisit some of my thoughts on those moves at the time they happened. Then I'll have a larger-scale look at the ups/downs of the network's fall. Finally, I'll look ahead to the upcoming midseason schedule changes.

More Upfronts Revisited: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

2012 Upfront Revisited, NBC

The winter break is not quite at the calendar midpoint of the TV season, but it's as close to a "stopping point" as we're gonna get. So this week, as promised, I'm doing one rather lengthy post for each network looking back at how the moves made on the upfront schedules have worked out. Because I love sabotaging my own credibility, I will also revisit some of my thoughts on those moves at the time they happened. Then I'll have a larger-scale look at the ups/downs of the network's fall. Finally, I'll look ahead to the upcoming midseason schedule changes.

More Upfronts Revisited: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/18/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• The late-season year-to-year growth from The Voice was essentially fully continued on finale night, with The Voice up by 11% on May's finale, amazingly marking a new season high for the show. It led out of a still impressive Voice repeat in the 8:00 hour (2.4).

• Despite a huge night by NBC, the all-original CBS lineup also picked up some ground. Suddenly volatile NCIS had the biggest growth since it didn't face an original The Voice, but NCIS: Los Angeles and Vegas also grew from their weak showings last week.

• Happy Endings and Apartment 23 were also up a notch against the added competition. Perhaps the similar-skewing Fox comedies being in repeats helped.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/18/12

WHAT MATTERS:

•  Like last season, finale week of The Voice began on a positive note, growing four tenths week-to-week and vs. last year's final Monday. But 1600 Penn had a very mediocre showing in its sneak peek at 9:30, and the probable series finale of Take It All found itself somewhere between what it did with The Voice lead-in and what it did with terrible lead-ins.

• The CBS lineup had another fairly positive week with a bonus original How I Met Your Mother improving the 8:00 hour and very little resistance from ABC, Fox or ESPN's Monday Night Football (3.6). Even better: this'll be their last duel with The Voice for several months. Mike and Molly, which had the benefit of facing Penn, hit its second-biggest number of the season, and Hawaii Five-0 was just down from the week-ago season high.

• Forgot to mention this in the prelims, but the CW got a really solid last couple weeks out of Gossip Girl, with this week's series finale spiking by two tenths from the week-ago penultimate ep (which itself was up at least two tenths from the rest of the season). It was the first 0.8 for GG in over a year and a half! I guess "Who is Gossip Girl?" was a legit hook.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/16/12 (2012-13 Week Twelve)

A huge late-season result from Sunday Night Football won the True Top 25 yet again. The Big Bang Theory grew a bit in its Christmas episode and beat a low-end Modern Family by a mile for the entertainment lead. This is the last close to "full-strength" week of 2012, and CBS had 16 of the 25 spots.

Two Friday shows made the list: CBS' second run this season of Rudolph and NBC's Newtown coverage on Dateline. A rising Elementary snuck back onto the list and gave the new class a representative.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 12/16/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• CBS had a pretty long NFL overrun, aired a shortened and massive-rated 60 Minutes in an attempt to start the Survivor finale at a reasonable time, but then a simulcast presidential address from Newtown (not counted in final ratings) bumped Survivor to an 8:57 start time anyway. The number tied the premiere's season high but ended up 20% below the finale from last fall, and it's hard to gauge how much all that other stuff impacted it. I haven't seen numbers for the 10:57 reunion in any of the usual places.

• NBC began Sunday Night Football over on the NBC Sports Network due to the address, but when it returned to NBC the potential Super Bowl preview between San Francisco and New England was extremely high-rated by late-season standards. It was the 5th-highest rated game this season.

• ABC and Fox were very much left behind. ABC bombed with a Bachelorette wedding and an original The Simpsons on Fox was well behind previous results. Again, I wouldn't read a ton into it because it's hard to gauge how much all the other stuff affected things.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 12/15/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• We often hear from @TedOnTV about the great ratings that the holiday theatrical Elf pulls on USA Network. Tonight, we got to see it on the broadcast stage, as Elf did much better than the typical CBS Saturday, and it easily held off a Transformers that has been one of the stronger broadcast movie repeaters in previous years. CBS then had more Newtown coverage at 10/9c but again didn't count it in finals. (It had a 1.5 in prelims.)

• With no sports options, Fox quietly brought back Cops, which went two tenths below the low point of last season.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 12/14/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Three-network coverage of the school shootings in Connecticut at 10/9c lined up as the news departments always seem to: NBC, then ABC, then CBS (which had a preliminary 1.2 but was not counted in finals).

• Among the few entertainment originals: Christmas episodes of Last Man Standing and Malibu Country were even to a tad up, night five of Take It All took only a small dip from its Thursday airing, and Fringe was up a couple tenths.

• CBS had a strong holiday special evening, with Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, Yes Virginia and Elf on the Shelf all up somewhat from their corresponding airings last year.

The Question, Tuesday 12/18/12: Will The Voice Sing One Last Crescendo?

Tonight, for the last time for three months, NBC will air a piece of entertainment programming that gets good ratings. It's been real, NBC. Anyway, the second half of the Voice season has nonethless been a great success story for the peacock. The battle rounds held up incredibly well, and there wasn't all that much of a decline during the live show portion. In the last few weeks, it's been pretty consistently up vs. the spring season, but maintaining that pace against the big May finale is a lot to ask. Will The Voice sing one last crescendo? That's The Question for Tuesday, December 18, 2012.

2012 Upfront Revisited, CBS

The winter break is not quite at the calendar midpoint of the TV season, but it's as close to a "stopping point" as we're gonna get. So this week, as promised, I'm doing one rather lengthy post for each network looking back at how the moves made on the upfront schedules have worked out. Because I love sabotaging my own credibility, I will also revisit some of my thoughts on those moves at the time they happened. Then I'll have a larger-scale look at the ups/downs of the network's fall. Finally, I'll look ahead to the upcoming midseason schedule changes.

More Upfronts Revisited: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

The Question, Monday 12/17/12: How Good is NBC's Penn-manship?

Tonight NBC airs its fourth different Monday Voice lead-out in as many weeks. We've covered drama, holiday special and game show already. This one is a comedy, the White House-set 1600 Penn, in a sneak preview before it begins its regular run in the post-Office slot in January. It's not gonna have much support on Thursday, so it may need to pick up some folks in this airing. How good is NBC's Penn-manship? That's The Question for Monday, December 17, 2012.

2012 Upfront Revisited, ABC

The winter break is not quite at the calendar midpoint of the TV season, but it's as close to a "stopping point" as we're gonna get. So this week, as promised, I'm doing one rather lengthy post for each network looking back at how the moves made on the upfront schedules have worked out. Because I love sabotaging my own credibility, I will also revisit some of my thoughts on those moves at the time they happened. Then I'll have a larger-scale look at the ups/downs of the network's fall. Finally, I'll look ahead to the upcoming midseason schedule changes.

More Upfronts Revisited: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

Some More C3 Tidbits

Yesterday MediaPost provided some more C3 ratings. These are the "real" numbers used to determine advertising rates. As always, I'm most interested in comparing these numbers with the Live + SD ones that we use every day. The MediaPost numbers best suited for that were the top ten entertainment shows in C3 rating. I lined them up with the Live+SD averages through November 25.

The Question Results Through December 10

Here are the results and individual standings through December 10 for the ratings prediction game The Question:

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/13/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Big downward finals adjustments on ABC due to an NFL pre-emption meant Scandal ultimately came down a single tenth from last week's series high. The pre-emptions had less impact on the CBS adjustments; all the network's programs remained even to slightly up after finals.

• The only network that wasn't in completely normal mode was NBC, where an Up All Night double-dip reached new depths and holiday strip Take It All remained mired in the low 1's. Fox was slightly down again with struggling The X Factor and Glee.

The Climate, Week 11

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/12/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• The retentionistas win this round: night three of NBC's Take It All took an absolute dive-bomb in its first shot apart from The Voice, down 50% from its post-Voice airings. That brought Chicago Fire all the way down from last week's without-Voice high to tie the show's Thanksgiving Eve low.

• Though NBC had the worst news, nobody had much of anything to cheer about. ABC's three comedies were on the low end (with The Neighbors way behind its previous results), and CBS had a big plummet from CSI. Fox's The X Factor and the CW's Arrow also fell back a bit.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/11/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• For reasons that frankly escape me, it seems these holiday strips always pick up a bit on the second night, though Take It All dropped in finals to end up even with the Monday result. (It was up a negligible amount in total viewers.) I'm not expecting the momentum to continue into the next two nights when it'll air after a repeat of Guys with Kids and an original Up All Night, but this was still a decent result. And it may have also helped Parenthood, which was on the high end of its results this season.

• Also for reasons that escape me, the CBS drama trio had a particularly bad evening, with new season lows for NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles and Vegas. The first two went two tenths below their previous lows. They're original next week and will have to hope for a rebound against The Voice finale night.

• ABC's holiday special Santa Claus is Comin' to Town was down 23% year-to-year.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/10/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC premiered game show Take It All at 9/8c to relatively mediocre results; it was a worse option than the other post-Voice efforts (at least on Monday) this season, but it probably didn't cost that much either. It gets another post-Voice whirl tonight. The 10/9c Michael Buble special was down a tick year-to-year.

• CBS got another big boost with The Big Bang Theory repeating at 8:30, though an NFL pre-emption mitigated it somewhat after finals. 2 Broke Girls aired two near-season high episodes in the 9/8c hour, and the largest 9:30 lead-in of the season vaulted Hawaii Five-0 to yet another season high.

• Fox's American Country Awards fell back to earth after getting a bounce last season. It was down big from last year's 2.0 and a tick below the inaugural number two years ago.

• Week three of Extreme Makeover: Home Edition came down multiple tenths after finals but still grew week-to-week.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/9/12 (2012-13 Week Eleven)

Sunday Night Football won the True Top 25 yet again, with The Big Bang Theory a comfortable #1 among entertainment programs. Holiday special season contributed three of the top 15, with the always reliable Victoria's Secret Fashion Show actually cracking the top five.

As noted last week, the "fall hype" adjustment kicks in this week, meaning the scores are all a lot higher relative to the raw numbers than in past weeks this season. Quite a few shows hit True2 season highs this week, but only a few had extraordinarily huge numbers relative to the rest of the season. (Most of those were shows like Hawaii Five-0 and Scandal which were at high points in the raw numbers as well.) There's a very real chance these numbers will end up being "too high" in general in the second half of the season, because there simply may not be as drastic a general ratings decline in the spring as what we saw last year. The hope is that looking at multiple years will ultimately help create a more normal expectation for general spring declines.

SpotVault - Take It All (NBC) - 2012-13

Take It All

December 10-17 on NBC

SpotVault - Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC) - 2012-13

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition

Mondays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - Specials & Movies (CW) - 2012-13

Specials & Movies on The CW

SpotVault - Specials & Movies (Fox) - 2012-13

Specials & Movies on Fox

SpotVault - Specials & Movies (NBC) - 2012-13

Specials & Movies on NBC

SpotVault - Specials & Movies (CBS) - 2012-13

Specials & Movies on CBS

SpotVault - Specials & Movies (ABC) - 2012-13

Specials & Movies on ABC

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 12/9/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• The Amazing Race wrapped up one of the more consistent seasons of TV you will ever see with yet another mid-2's result, but that marked a major drop from last fall's finale on an NFL overrun night (3.3). Despite a better lead-in, The Mentalist hit its lowest start-on-time number of the season.

• ABC had its first Hallmark Hall of Fame movie of the season, and Christmas with Holly was actually the highest-rated Hallmark movie since it made the move to ABC at the beginning of last season. It was up majorly from the first movie of last season (1.1 on 11/27/11).

• Fox had the NFL overrun boost, but as usual its effects were only really felt by The Simpsons. It was near a season high while the others were about average.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 12/8/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• With the college football regular season over, Saturdays get even more boring than they already were. But Fox had a strong option for this week with UFC (it peaked in the 10:00 half-hour with a 2.6 demo), and CBS hung in there with some holiday specials. NBC's American Giving Awards barely managed to avoid worst-big-four-ratings-ever levels.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 12/7/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Saturday Night Live in primetime remains a potentially strong option; a repeat of November 28's SNL Christmas special greatly improved the 8:00 to 10:00 period and helped boost Dateline to its highest number of the season by a long shot.

• Most other stuff was even to down a bit, with Last Man Standing and Malibu Country each shedding a tick following last week's gains and CSI: NY and Blue Bloods also close to average.

The Climate, Week 10

The Question, Monday 12/10/12: Does This Game Show Take?

Tonight begins another of broadcast primetime's seemingly yearly traditions: the stripped game show. This year, it's primetime fixture Howie Mandel hosting something that seems somewhat similar to those gift-stealing games you may have played at your office party. (Yankee Swap? Dirty Santa?) The last two such strips got a short regularly scheduled run following the weeklong "event" but didn't survive long-term. Does this game show take? That's The Question for Monday, December 10, 2012.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/6/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was a breakout evening for ABC's sophomore drama Scandal, which was three tenths above the previous season high point (last week) and two tenths above the previous series high point (set at the end of last season). Is this sustainable? We'll see. There was a big cliff-hanger leading into last night's episode, but then it ended on another humdinger.

• Large downward adjustments after finals left CBS, like NBC and Fox, at pretty normal levels. The worst night was had by the CW, with new season lows for both shows.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/5/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• The Wednesday finals are in. ABC had a down evening thanks to a repeat of Modern Family at 9/8c. That brought down lead-out Suburgatory by a relatively predictable amount, and it also seems to have nicked The Middle at 8/7c. But The Neighbors remains consistent and Nashville actually upticked in the less competitive 10/9c hour.

• NBC was of course on the upswing vs. its last episodes on Thanksgiving Eve, but for the most part it was pretty consistent with the regular airings three weeks ago. One notable exception: with CBS airing the always low-rated Grammy Nominations Concert (down 21% year-to-year and down 43% from the week-ago CSI), Chicago Fire took a huge surge, tying its second-best result of the season. (The only time it did better was when it aired after The Voice.)

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/4/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was one tough Tuesday in the TV ratings world. CBS won the night with its usual special powerhouses Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer and The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, but both were down over 20% (and at least a full point) year-to-year.

• Nobody else had much to report, either. ABC's special Shark Tank was a tenth weaker than the show's most recent Friday 9:00 episode and hit the show's typical number when it aired at 8:00. Fox's comedies all tied season/series lows (except for Raising Hope, which set a new one). And NBC saw The Voice revert to near its Tuesday low point from two weeks ago. The one good thing NBC can say is it seems Voice-fueled Go On is widening its lead over the comedy competitors.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/3/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Following the big post-Thanksgiving upswing last Monday, most shows gave back some ground. It's worth noting in this consideration that ESPN had a very good night with Monday Night Football (6.0), up 50% from last week's much-weaker-than-usual 4.0. The CBS lineup, this time with a much weaker repeat of 2 Broke Girls at 8:30, was generally a little higher than two weeks ago (when 2.5 Men aired at 8:30) but noticeably down from last week when The Big Bang Theory was there.

• The annual crappy lead-in episode of Castle dropped by three tenths from its last post-Dancing with the Stars episode. Said crappy lead-in, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, dropped a chunk from last week when it aired after DWTS.

• NBC got a relatively Revolution-esque demo result from holiday special Blake Shelton's Not-So-Family Christmas, which proved a good match with Shelton's The Voice.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/2/12 (2012-13 Week Ten)

Sunday Night Football won this relatively full-strength week's True Top 25 by a decent margin. The Big Bang Theory was the top entertainment program, holding off Modern Family. Revolution was the only new show this week with Elementary posting a weak result, and nobody from Friday/Saturday sniffed the list.

An important note is that this is the last week before the "fall hype" adjustment kicks in on True2 scores, so there will be some funny-looking week-to-week upticks in these numbers next week. However, most of these shows are currently getting lower True2 scores than they were at the beginning of the season, so the December numbers shouldn't go well above everything before. Next summer I may work on smoothing the transition out somewhat so there isn't a tendency for the True2 scores to drop in November and then abruptly get uplifted in December.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 12/2/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was "winter finale" night for the ABC Sunday shows, which will return later this winter. And it wasn't really worth writing home about, as Once Upon a Time was even and Revenge only rallied by a bit from last week's super-low level.

• Fox sat out its animation anchors but saw the second-tier shows hold up decently after repeats. Bob's Burgers was down a couple tenths and American Dad! didn't drop at all. But in fairness, their lead-ins didn't drop that much because The Simpsons and Family Guy are among TV's best repeaters relative to their original numbers.

• Finals updates: NBC ended up with a relatively normal Sunday Night Football number even though it was a 5-6 team against a 3-8 team. That's the power of the Dallas Cowboys. Overrun night helped CBS' The Amazing Race and The Good Wife finish near their season high points. And another breakthrough season for The Walking Dead ended with no real spike for the finale (5.4). Still, the season as a whole was up 56% year-to-year and currently outrates any broadcast entertainment program, so I have a feeling they'll take it.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 12/1/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• By Fox standards, the Big Ten Championship game did rather well; this would've been a season high for CFB on Fox, and it gave the net a rare head-to-head win over ABC's Texas/Kansas State.

• The CBS lineup got a big boost thanks to the late-afternoon SEC Championship game. Made in Jersey did a number fairly in line with its pre-cancellation Friday results starting at 8:16 after the postgame (which had a 2.8 rating).

The Question, Tuesday 12/4/12: Will Shark Tank Nail Its Tuesday Pitch?

The "home-grown" Friday night success is rather rare these days. When it happens, there's a natural temptation to test whether it can work in a higher-viewed, higher-pressure situation. If we define passing that test as "permanent weeknight timeslot," then the last two (Blue Bloods and Grimm) failed. Blue Bloods got a boost, but it seemed less about a "better night" and more about the size of the Criminal Minds lead-in. And Grimm really didn't get any boost at all. Next up: tonight's Tuesday 8/7c tryout for Friday's surging unscripted program Shark Tank. Will Shark Tank nail its Tuesday pitch? That's The Question for Tuesday, December 4, 2012.

The Question, Monday 12/3/12: Is Castle Fortified Against a Bad Lead-in?

It's become a reliable holiday tradition at ABC; each year they air one original episode of Castle after pretty much the worst lead-in they can possibly think of. We're talking megabombs like Find My Family, Skating with the Stars and You Deserve It. (You remember all those, right?!) But it's always a fun opportunity for us ratings junkies to see where Castle is really at. Tonight the "honor" goes to a veteran show, but at this point it looks like Extreme Makeover: Home Edition may be nearly as ratings inept as all the rest. Is Castle fortified against a bad lead-in? That's The Question for Monday, December 3, 2012.

SpottedRatings.com This Winter

A few notes on the projects coming up around here over the next couple months:

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/30/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC's Last Man Standing and Malibu Country headed back in the positive direction following a couple weeks at 1.4, then ABC won the last two hours in inexpensive fashion with a great repeat showing from Shark Tank and a near-season high 20/20.

• Fox went with the Pac-12 Championship Game, which should end up somewhere in the low-1's and only a few tenths better than Fox's Saturday football average but an improvement over Fox's Friday regulars. All-original CBS was pretty steady, NBC basically sat out the evening, and Nikita hit a season high in its move to 8/7c, once again illustrating the power of the local programming lead-in on the CDub.