| Post-Baseball Returns | Glee This Season |
| -17% (Glee, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -16% (New Girl, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -14% (Raising Hope, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -0% (Bones, 10/8/12 -> 11/5/12) -22% (five-show Sunday animation average, 10/7/12 -> 11/4/12) | 3.1 (9/13/2012) (3.4 X Factor lead-in) 2.9 (9/20/2012) (3.8) 2.4 (9/27/2012) (3.5) 2.6 (10/4/2012) (3.5) |
I feel like what happened to Tuesday last year was a bit extreme, even though I don't have a lot of reason for thinking that (aside from Monday's Bones and The Mob Doctor coming back fairly even, I guess). But even if you think Glee won't "Truly" drop at all, you probably still have to take a little something off just because its X Factor lead-in is going to be much weaker than the mid-3's it got for those first four Glee weeks. It averaged just a 2.3 at 8:30 last week against The CMA Awards and a The Voice repeat; this week it may well do better, but probably not by a ton, against a Voice original. Because of that, I'm setting this over/under at just a bit smaller than the drop it took last year. (2.6 -> 2.25 would be down 13%.)
Over/Under: 2.25.
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10 comments:
Over.
Over
Over. I'm starting to think you're much too pessimistic, Spotty. Every time I've said under in the last few weeks on this game, I get screwed.
Early on, the safe pick was UNDER, but lately it has been OVER.
With that said, X is crumbling, so I will say UNDER (2.1). Though, this may be wishful thinking.
Over and quite easily I'd have thought. I don't see the break having any kind of effect this time and won't be surprised if it grows out of The X Factor.
Over, indeed.
Not much, but over. A 2.4
Over.
Over.
Well in my defense, I was only "much too pessimistic" by 0.05 on Chicago Fire! ;) And I feel pretty good about this pick. I feel like its level was about a 2.4/2.5 (break-up episode's 2.6 was a bit inflated) and X Factor's struggles alone would take that down to a 2.3, even before adding in any kind of "post-hiatus effect."
With that being said, it does seem like I am having trouble recently finding numbers that split up the votes. My rule has (for the most part) been to go 0.05 below my actual prediction. Occasionally I go 0.15 below if I think people are really down on a show or 0.05 above if I think people are really up. Perhaps I should recalibrate that.
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