The Question, Thursday 11/8/12: Will Glee's Post-Baseball Return Strike Out?

What sucks about Fox's baseball arrangement is that they have to "sacrifice" some part of the schedule to fit in all those pre-emptions. Last year, they protected The X Factor at the expense of Tuesday, and Glee/New Girl/Raising Hope were never the same when they came back in November. This year, they tried to minimize Tuesday pre-emptions and essentially had to derail X Factor to do so. The show that got screwed both times was Glee, which returns tonight after four Thursdays off and has to be praying it goes better this year than last. Will Glee's post-baseball return strike out?  That's The Question for Thursday, November 8, 2012.

Post-Baseball Returns	Glee This Season
-17% (Glee, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -16% (New Girl, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -14% (Raising Hope, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11) -0% (Bones, 10/8/12 -> 11/5/12) -22% (five-show Sunday animation average, 10/7/12 -> 11/4/12)	3.1 (9/13/2012) (3.4 X Factor lead-in) 2.9 (9/20/2012) (3.8) 2.4 (9/27/2012) (3.5) 2.6 (10/4/2012) (3.5)

I feel like what happened to Tuesday last year was a bit extreme, even though I don't have a lot of reason for thinking that (aside from Monday's Bones and The Mob Doctor coming back fairly even, I guess). But even if you think Glee won't "Truly" drop at all, you probably still have to take a little something off just because its X Factor lead-in is going to be much weaker than the mid-3's it got for those first four Glee weeks. It averaged just a 2.3 at 8:30 last week against The CMA Awards and a The Voice repeat; this week it may well do better, but probably not by a ton, against a Voice original. Because of that, I'm setting this over/under at just a bit smaller than the drop it took last year. (2.6 -> 2.25 would be down 13%.)

Over/Under: 2.25.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.